I like his take on the issue. If ABC wants more retrans money, they should negotiate for it just like the non-O&Os are. If they want to play hardball, then affiliates should be able to opt out of carrying certain low-rated programming.

It’s unclear if that figure reflects Belo’s 4 ABC stations or their 20 stations across all affiliations.

If it’s just the ABC stations that breaks down to about 85 cents per home per month.

If it’s for all stations it’s likely less than 20 cents per home per month.

From what I know of the networks’ retrans strategies, that <$0.20 figure isn't going to cut it. The networks will be all over them to negotitate their next deals far more aggressively.

Though my ratings predictions for premieres are never good, my “kicking and screaming” predictions are much better. I think we’re just at the start of a very early cycle of much duress for all parties, but my guess is affiliates will be particularly impacted. Many of the potential revenue opportunities don’t favor the affiliates. For example, I’d pay Comcast at least $10 a month to get the east coast feeds of the broadcast networks.

It will be a while, but I think ultimately something like that will be available where you can get a networks content without the affiliate, and the affiliates are going to hate it.

I think the networks:

a.) want better retrans deals for their content from the Cable and Satellite companies

b.) want a cut of those fees even from non O&O affiliates

Overall, the networks are probably scratching their heads trying to figure out how to ultimately unwind the existing affiliate model. But I doubt ABC is really different than FOX or CBS, the news just came out faster.

I’m sure all three of them, and NBC too, are prioritizing “a.)” above with their O&O. But I’d be surprised if they didn’t all share ABC’s thinking on “b.)”