Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.53 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.70 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.72 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.75 |
| Community | 0.84 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.93 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.96 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.15 |
| The Office (P) | 1.56 |
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Like ABC with Eastwick and the forgotten, NBC has two new ratings dogs in the pound and chose to extend Mercy's life and kill Trauma early. Even though a few more Mercy episodes will be produced, the end result will be the same. Neither show is coming back next season.
Law & Order hit 2 season high ratings last Friday a 1.7 at 8pm and a 1.8 at 9pm. That's very positive. Holding a 1.8 rating would likely ensure renewal. Even with a 1.7 it's not out of the question. NBC's current 18-49 average rating is a 2.7, but that will plunge once football ends. If NBC ends up averaging a 2.5 rating overall, a 1.7 rating on a Friday might save L&O. 1.7/2.5 = 0.68.
The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
…no Chuck post yet?
Actually…no POSTS at all?
The show itself is OK, but it’s a fairly ordinary, routine hospital drama. It’s competently written and acted, but there are no compelling reasons to watch. House and Greys’ are far more entertaining, compelling to watch, and higher rating hospital dramas. Mercy’s ratings continue to slide dowward. House and Grey’s will be around a few more seasons, Mercy will not.
Have you watched Mercy? It really is a fantastic show and well-deserving of renewal. Rich, well-written characters, heartfelt performances, and a continuing increase in quality. It is far better than House on most weeks.
Gosh I wish that NBC had extended “Trauma” for +9 instead of “Mercy.” The ratings on both are crap, which then brings up the quality question. “Mercy” is so totally dull and unremarkable. It’s hard to get through an hour. “Trauma” has some very good actors, great action and increasingly compelling story arcs. Of course, all that costs money, and so that’s what made the difference for a deeply struggling network like NBC. “Trauma,” at least, can go out with its honor intact. They’re really using that money to buy interesting stunts, explosions and set pieces. Next week, for example, it looks like they’re going to sink a boat and then do a water rescue from a helicopter. That’s crazy in this day and age of financially struggling network TV, but at least you have to give them credit for having the courage of their convictions.
http://www.nbc.com/trauma/video/clips/thank-you/1173914/
yeah good thing their spending crazy amounts of money on mindless action sequences…
Parks and Recreation finally passed up Mercy on the index…
Is a season 3 possible??… I am dreading May upfronts…
If its ratings continue increasing throughout the season the way they have recently than it has a good shot at renewal.
Who produces Community? Every other show on that list is created by a parent company.
I think you’re a bit too cynical with “mercy”. A lot can change by the end of the season. You shouldn’t say that it’s for sure gonna be cancelled. At present numbers? yes, but NBC’s average is only going down after football ends, and Mercy might grow by the end of the season. Furthermore, shows slated as mid-season replacements might do even worse.
Likely returning next season? No. Possibly returning next season? Yes.
Just for the record, whether it is or not, I don’t care.
@the128boy,
Possible but not likely. I think with the current trend Community will return and they’ll try out a new show at 8:30. Still, a lot can change by end of the season! I’d rather have a Parks Season 3 than a Community season 2.
johnthemon, as some are fond of pointing out, lots of nearly impossible things may happen. Nevertheless, Mercy’s not coming back.
As for being cynical, you don’t pay me to predict “maybe”.
Hey, wait a minute…
Here’s my thing, I really think Mercy and Trauma should air on the same night. Putting Trauma at 9pm on Mondays was a huge mistake and Trauma ends up paying for it. SVU should’ve been put there at 9pm on Mondays.
I wish NBC would announce Chuck’s return soon. Its likely to come back in January. Mercy and Trauma are basically like Three Rivers and Cold Case. 1 series has 13 eps, the other has 22 but both will be gone by May. Law & Order could return if it holds up and the newer comedies, Community and Parks are doing OK. Id still say Community will be renewed over Parks if I had to choose between the two.
As long as Mercy has a pulse, I’ll continue to cheer it on. In the slim pickin’s of the new 2009-10 offerings, it’s one of my favorites.
After a few talky, transparent episodes earlier this season, the last two weeks of L&O have been very entertaining. Hope they keep it up!
Community getting the 8pkm slot isn’t working for them. I would switch 30 Rock and Community if I were in charge of NBC, that way Community can get the The Office lead-in that they used to have.
I’d be surprised if they keep both Parks and Community. Unless they are going to open up another comedy hour on the schedule (but why would they when they got “comedy” everynight at 10) they will likeley want to use one of those spots to try and launch a new show.
On the other hand, they’re not likeley to break up the Office/Rock power hour either, so launching a new show in the 8pm hour with either Community or Parks will be difficult as well.
R.G. – Ive been saying that since September. NBC cares more about winning 9pm with its Office/30 Rock combo then helping its newer comedues.
Mike – For 2010-2011, Id say Parks is most likely to be axed. Even if NBC airs a new series at 8:30, that wouldnt work out. Id say still NBC should move an established veteran 30 Rock to 8 leading into Parks. And then Office leading into Community.
RJ writes, “Who produces Community? Every other show on that list is created by a parent company.”
It’s a co-production between Sony and Universal, set up at Sony. Every other show on that list is… not set up at Sony.
Although NBC has been extremely focused on airing Universal properties, that is likely to change next year; I know JJ Abrams’ new spy show isn’t Uni, and I thought they already picked up another show produced by someone else as well.
Please give parks the ax…it smacks of a someone working for a real parks/Rec and transcribing episodes of the office to their work day, only not funny. The office has rebounded from 1 1/2 seasons of crappiness, 30 is hilarious and community is the best new comedy NBC has come up with in years (they didn’t come up with the office or with 30 rock)
Pierce Pierce Pierce… Pierce you’re a B!