Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 8, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.59 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.61 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.66 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.92 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.96 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.06 |
| The Mentalist | 1.08 |
| CSI (P) | 1.09 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.13 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.13 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.20 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.37 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.39 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.50 |
-
In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It's now in significant danger of not coming back. But last week the other CBS Friday dramas (Ghost Whisperer, Medium) only managed to edge Numb3rs adults 18-49 rating by a tenth (1.9 vs. 1.8). I think it's very unlikely that CBS would wipe out its entire Friday lineup, but if Numb3rs is in danger, can the other 2 rest easy?
Neither Three Rivers nor Cold Case will be back next season. They will both be canceled by the end of the year, but while Cold Case will likely air a full 22 episode season, the most Three Rivers will get will be the 13 episodes already ordered.
The Good Wife ratings continue to drift downwards. Last week's 2.7 rating is only 84% of the CBS average. If that continues, the show's first season may be its last.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, but what’s new? If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be fine for yet another season.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
-
Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
So you have the finals for Sunday? Could you please post them?
i wonder if they would move three rivers or cold case instead of canceling them and put them in numbers place or even GW as its not propreitary
too bad i like numbers
If “Numb3rs” does go, I’d like to see CBS give “Flashpoint’ another shot. The Friday numbers were fairly decent for “Flashpoint” the past two seasons.
@chet, Cold Case and Three Rivers are already doing worse than any of the Friday shows. Why would CBS want to sacrifice steady performers for their two lowest rated shows?
AT LAST! Bill G has run out of “dying/dead patient” metaphors to use for Three Rivers.
I think The Good Wife could go to fridays before this season ends.
Now that they have Medium in there, I can see them finding another female lead show — I know it’s the Friday ghetto, but The Good Wife might do okay in that slot if it continues to drift downward and CBS wants the Tuesday slot for something that skews more male.
The Good Wife at 9pm could be a good thing. With medium at 10 pm.
Maybe Miami Trauma (?) could get the TGW spot.
Oh, but there’s that old standby…
“Three Rivers ratings drying up”
Big Bang Theory’s standing in the ratings is HUGE. 1.50. Wow.
Michael, I saw that TR’s numbers were 7.99 mil and a 1.8 demo but those are the only ones I have. This is slightly higher than last week but surely can’t be enough to keep it going. Not sure if this is inflated due to the overrun but would be my guess.
thank you Nelson for a great 6 season of Numbers
CBS isn’t going to move The Good Wife. It is doing decently for that Tuesday slot, winning it. It is also gaining critical praise. And I bet it is cheaper than Without a Trace which was doing okay there too. That spot on Tuesdays has been a problem for them since they cancelled Judging Amy.
I like Numbers but would like to see Flashpoint come back. White Collar on USA is doing very well and probably is eating into the old Numbers fan base.
CBS is insane if they think they have something better to fill Friday nights with than the combo of Ghost Whisperer and Medium.
Take the usual hourly wins you get from both of them and dont get greedy.
I hope The Good Wife bounces back to the 3.0 zone
Ghost Whisperer and Medium arent in any danger. Three Rivers should get the axe any day now and Cold Case and Numb3rs will be gone by May. I still think The Good Wife moving to 10pm fridays will be a good test for the show. Sure its doing well at 10pm on Tuesdays but its following NCIS: LA and theres no competition. If CBS wants to see how Good Wife can perform on its own, they will move it to replace Numb3rs and air a new drama (Miami Trauma) Tuesdays at 10. If Good Wife holds up when it airs with Ghost Whisperer and Medium, then it will be good enough for that slot for 2010-2011. Instead of airing Flashpoint on fridays, CBS could air it 10pm sundays and move Cold Case to 9. Accidentally on Purpose may be in the green now, but I bet it will finish early, be replaced by ROE and then join the ranks of The Class and Worst Week.
Few people seem to be lamenting the presumed demise of Numb3rs, but I’d hate to see it go. Yes, the show needs new energy — a substantial female agent to fill the void left by Diane Farr, an actual onscreen romantic interest for Don (versus the mentioned-but-never-seen Robin), and more chemistry and less math between Charlie and Amita. As it stands, Numb3rs doesn’t fit into the Friday night equation (ha ha), but I hope CBS will find it worthy of at least one more season.
Enjoying the TNT syndication, too!
Numb3rs is well into syndication and has done well in its same friday 10pm slot for 6 years. It will go down as a series that helped CBS with the friday night death slot along with Ghost Whisperer. Beginning last May, CBS axes two veteran dramas to make room. Last May it was The Unit and Without a Trace and next May it will be Cold Case and Numb3rs. Which besides the CSIs and NCIS are the oldest dramas. Each May before that CBS has gotten away with not axing veteran dramas. May 2008 CBS axed two year dramas Shark and Jericho and May 2007 CBS axed two year Close to Home. May 2006 was the only season that CBS didnt axe any veteran series.
@Sam -
“Yes, the show needs new energy…an actual onscreen romantic interest for Don…”
Why? Why does the show need a love interest for Don, which would just bog it down with more relationship-oriented filler?
Sam – Since its CBS, if a shows order is cut its dead. Cold Case and Numb3rs are definitely gone by May. If it were another network, the shows might have a better chance but every year CBS needs to dump a couple of veterans to just make room for new dramas. For CBS, they have so many well performing shows that they have to make sacrifices like last seasons Without a Trace. Its better that CBS axes Cold Case and Numb3rs so they have room, so to the two series R.I.P.