There was some spirited debate attached to my original post about the disappearance of Conan's Tonight Show adults 18-49 lead over Letterman's Late Show and whether it might be the start of a long term trend. That was seven weeks ago and the two shows are still neck and neck in the important adults 18-49 demo.
This is close to looking like a permanent sea change. Not quite as dramatic as when Leno took the late night ratings lead from Letterman in the mid 90's and never gave it back, particularly because Letterman's unlikely to stay in his chair too much longer, but a big change nevertheless.
The trend lines above are 4 week moving averages.
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I think it’s too soon to tell. Give it time for an actual pattern to develop before you call it.
Too soon to tell? What, Conan is going to magically overnight attract an audience that already knows he’s there? Not going to happen, especially with all the late-night options now available. The Tonight Show’s reign is over.
Bill don’t take shots at Conan. The “mainstream” media won’t allow it. Don’t join the “lunatic fringe” movement.
Conan’s lead got “Swallowed”, partly because he was a “Greedy Fly”.
jon, what specifically are you talking about?
I’m glad Conan is on the Tonight Show and what people need to understand is that Conan’s audience is different from Jay’s and Letterman’s. Personally I think Conan will pick up numbers in due time and the Tonight Show success will continue.
It doesn’t matter JR, I’m the Robert Christgau of late night, I’m the “late night authority”…………But, I was talking about Razorblade Suitcase
Thanks, I’ll remember that your comments don’t matter.
This shows that you can’t look to the post-scandal numbers for huge guidance. The two seem very close in the demo, with the relative appeal of their guests, rather than disparate cores of loyal viewers, deciding who ends up on top on many nights.
At the end of the day, I’ll stick with the same thing I said last time: each passing year Dave-heavy viewers are aging out of the demo (or audience altogether) while Conan-heavy viewership is aging into it.
I’m sure within a couple years Conan will reign supreme, especially if Leno is gone.
Scott R., in a couple years we’ll be making a different comparison, because the conventional wisdom is that Dave calls it quits in 2012 when his current contract ends and he’s 65.
@Major Mike Said … “Too soon to tell? What, Conan is going to magically overnight attract an audience that already knows he’s there? Not going to happen”
Letterman led against Leno for almost 2 years (Aug ’93 to July ’95) before overtaking him. The reality is that people get better at the job as time goes along and I assume people who hated Leno at first came back 2 years later and found he’d grown into the role. The same could happen for Conan.
Tom, anything *could* happen, but Conan has already lost the lead he had initially, and its been neck and neck for 7 weeks. After that, I’m betting on inertia to keep things the same unless there’s another big shock to the system, so to speak.
the big kids watch Colbert
I think I have to agree with Corey here. Conan and Colbert are after the same viewer. The 1.1M or so that Colbert averages a night used to be tuned into a network late night show.
The biggest thing is not who is going to overtake who–its that the numbers are laughable for both shows.
Are you people getting it? Look at the situation. Letterman has been in this time slot for 16 years. Conan has been there for 7 weeks, yet they are neck and neck. I’d say that Conan is doing pretty darn good!
NBC could get its collective stuff together in the next couple of years and provide Conan a good enough lead in to encourage enough sampling to allow him to take over Dave again.
But, as long as NBC leaves Leno in there at 10, and Leno continues to trend in the direction he’s going, it will continue to affect the affiliates’ late local news and it’ll be very, very tough for Conan. It’s tough now, imagine where it’ll be in a year if it’s left like this.
@Roland – yes, the pie is getting sliced thinner and thinner… how thinly can it be sliced and still be profitable for anyone?
I am not buying the whole lead in factor. “The Tonight Show” has always been appointment viewing regardless of the local news lead in. People tuned to Johnny Carson regardless of which station the news was on. All of this Leno bashing is cracking me up (not here but on other blogs).
My best guess is that Dave will lead in total viewers until he steps down. “Late Show” is fresh and has totally been retooled for today’s late night viewer. I have not watched Conan since his first week of taking over. Jay seems pained and stressed in his new prime time spot.
I enjoy Conan as well as Jon Stewart, but I’m not a particularly big Colbert fan. I don’t think their comedy concepts are analogous, so I don’t think it’s accurate to view them as sharing an audience.
Conan is just not that clever or classy! Dave is more seasoned, but the networks need to get some fresh people to host these shows! They have become predictable, dull, and boring.