While it’s certainly a possibility that both shows will be renewed, the question at hand is which show is more likely to be renewed? I could be cowardly and push and say that they are equally likely. But if I have to pick one, it’s “Heroes,” and not exclusively just because the relative rankings (and color coding) in the Renew/Cancel Index.
Crazy tinfoil hat wearing “Fringe” fanboys who want to call me a hater please note, I am still watching “Fringe!” I am not still watching “Heroes!” But the question isn’t “which show am I more likely to watch?”
Heroes
Even though “Heroes” is at our near series lows with Adults 18-49 it is still one of NBC’s better performing shows and its second best scripted drama, trailing only “Law & Order: SVU.”
At the current level, I can’t see “Heroes” not being renewed. The ratings of course could continue to drop to the point where it’s a different story. But given the ratings carnage NBC has suffered, even if “Heroes” falls to the levels where “Fringe” currently is, I think it’s still a keeper. It could be retooled and re-launched perhaps, but a keeper nonetheless. It has strong international sales (though those will likely be weaker when attempting to sell an additional season) and still, relative to most shows very strong DVD sales. Those DVD sales are way, way down from season one, but still in the upper echelon of TV show DVDs. Of any show on NBC, only “The Office” surpasses Heroes DVD sales in the USA.
Especially with the ratings carnage NBC has suffered, I can’t see NBC not at least trying to get one more season from the show. Again, that’s based on the current ratings. In March, if “Heroes” is pulling a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating, that’s a different story.
Though perhaps still worrisome, “Fringe” rebounded from its low numbers following the baseball hiatus last week, assuming no significant changes in the final numbers. I guess all those DVR viewers who normally watch it the same night who didn’t get it in their program guides so it didn’t record, and all the people who just assumed it wasn’t on came back.
Overall, FOX wanted to improve its Thursday night fates by scheduling “Bones” and “Fringe”, and so far it has worked. “Bones” does measurably better at 8pm, but 9pm is the tougher time slot. Though it’s perhaps true that “Fringe” might do better at 8pm up against “Flash Forward” , not throwing “Bones” against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes sense. “Bones” skews more towards women and “Fringe” more towards men. If you have a show targeted at women, throwing it against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes no sense. That’s the same reason why CW’s “The Vampire Diaries” airs at 8pm instead of 9pm.
If “Fringe” stays about where it is, I could certainly see FOX digging in and sticking with it next year. FOX can’t successfully launch a new show at 9pm, and though it has talked about moving “House” or “American Idol” to Thursdays in the past, I think mostly that was to get a rise out of its competitors.
FOX could of course change “Fringe’s” ratings by moving it to a better timeslot. FOX might think it could squeeze more out of “Fringe” somewhere else. But FOX doesn’t have very many slots to work with. Some argue that it should slot “Fringe” after “House” again and move “Lie To Me” to 9pm. Maybe, but I think at best all that would produce is a very similar outcome where "Fringe" would do around as well as "Lie To Me" on Mondays, and "Lie To Me" would do about as well as "Fringe" on Thursdays. Especially since t"Lie To Me" is produced by Fox and "Fringe" isn't, I can't see that move happening.
The possibilities are always endless, and we haven’t even seen the mid-season schedule yet. I’m sure people will keep a close eye on the forthcoming “Human Target” and its ratings and there will be lots of discussion of pitting “Human Target” vs. “Fringe.”
Of course, as discussed in the comments below, it is also possible neither show gets renewed.
definitely heroes, even though I don’t like that show…
It gets better ratings than Fringe and it’s on a worse network.
Heroes will only get renewed for syndie/money reasons but Fringe needs one more chance to prove itself and that’s by getting out of that timeslot.
I vote for Fringe.. But I hope they won’t move it at 8 pm and move Bones at 9 pm..
Both
No brainer
“Fringe” would get a shot at 9pm Friday before it would get canceled.
As sad as it sounds, Heroes.
One of the best ratings on the network, possible extra syndication money, money from DVD sales, etc.
The only advantage Fringe has in comparison is that it does not actively induce mockery.
As someone who watches neither, I would put my money on them both being canceled, but if one has to be renewed, Heroes does seem the more likely candidate.
Heroes is a train wreck. It doesn’t deserve to be renewed, even if it is one of NBC’s better performing shows.
Fringe is far superior in writing, acting, a solid storyline, and he show actually makes sense, unlike Heroes.
If Fox isn’t happy with Fringe’s current ratings what else are they gonna throw I’m that slot? There is nothing they can put on that 9 pm slot and expect better numbers than what fringe has, other than house or AI. It would be interesting to see if Fox would be willing to air two new episodes of bones back to back, if Bones does it’s usual 2.7 at 8pm and drops to a 2.2 at 9pm than that would give them a better indication of how Fringe is doing.
Fringefan, but Fox could put something there much much cheaper than Fringe, so it won’t matter very much that the ratings aren’t great.
While I really enjoy both (Heroes is much better this season), Fringe is definitely the better show. That being said, I think Heroes would have a better chance of being renewed.
What if they switch Fringe and Bones? Bones has a solid fanbase
I’m still thinking if “Lie to Me” gets the full year (maybe it did and I missed it), “24″ will go to Thursdays. I can’t see FOX wasting the House/Idol lead-ins on a veteran series.
What that would mean for “Fringe,” I’m not sure.
As was said in the post: “Though it’s perhaps true that “Fringe” might do better at 8pm up against “Flash Forward” , not throwing “Bones” against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes sense. “Bones” skews more towards women and “Fringe” more towards men. If you have a show targeted at women, throwing it against “Grey’s Anatomy” makes no sense.”
Fox won’t run a test pattern in the time slot. It’s a mark of respect that Fringe is in the primetime of primetime, Thursday night. You want disrespect? Have the show moved to Friday at 9 after Dollhouse ends its run.
I’d go with Heroes, as it’s been said, even though Heroes ratings are bad – the rest of NBC is worse.
I don’t know about Fringe, I think it could go either way at this point. If it was produced by FOX that would be one thing, but it’s not. And I’m pretty sure it’s an expensive show, so that works against it too. I honestly think it’s fate comes down to what FOX has in development for 2010-11. It’s ratings aren’t horrible, but the cost to ratings ratio isn’t helping it any.
I originally thought Fringe’s move to Thursday was a good one because it showed that FOX believed in the show, but now I’m starting to agree with those that think it needs to move.
Personally, I’d like to see an all-out Battle Royale on Thursdays @ 9. Let’s have House take on Grey’s and CSI to see which show reigns supreme. I know most people would hate this because “there’s too many shows on Thursdays”, but there’s a reason it’s such a prime spot, and you should want your best shows on that night.
As for Heroes, I have a feeling that the original poster is right, and it’ll get one more year to right the ship.
Travis, if you want to see a Battle Royale on Thurday’s at 9, You’d Have Grey’s on ABC, NCIS on CBS, House on FOX, and Vampire Diaries on the CW. That’s all of the networks top scripted dramas.
According to the Gorman Index, Fringe is toast. 2.2-2.3 is outstanding for a Friday, not so for a Thursday.
When’s the last time a show in the lows 2s was renewed off-Friday by FOX?
As you guys say, the networks are ruled these days by numbers crunchers.
We’re heading into pilot season and I’m assuming FOX will have new pet projects that it will replace its weaker shows with; or a few game shows from which to pick that could score the same ratings buy cost way less.
Finally, NBC snatched up Abrams latest project, so FOX may not feel as beholden to him as it would have had they won the project.
@Dan-O: I don’t think Lie to Me has been officially given a back 9 yet, but as they’re casting beyond episode 13 at the moment (according to Aussielo) then it’s just a matter of time before they do.
As for which one gets renewed, I’d probably have to choose Heroes too even though I watch and love both shows. Although seasons 2 and 3 of Heroes were mostly a train wreck, season 4 has been surprisingly good, even with the “Carnivale” angle that many of us were dreading. I put a lot of that down to Robert Knepper’s character as he seems to be who the Heroes universe is rotating around. An excellent casting choice by whomever chose to. I hope they don’t kill him off any time soon.
My thoughts on Fringe are they dropped the ball with killing Charlie off and then bringing in a new female agent only to not use her again. I also hoped we’d be getting more Leonard Nimoy and more of The Observer but both have been sadly lacking, despite the way they were built up towards the end of season 1. The only plus point for Fringe is I do love where they’re going with Broyles. But seriously, more Nimoy and Observer will “save” Fringe more than moving it away from Thursdays against the juggernauts of CSI, Grey’s and Mentalist.
Bones is doing what Fox asked of it, improve the 8 pm ratings. Why would they move it to accommodate another show that is in trouble, but, then again, this is Fox and who knows how their collective ratings minds work?