That being said, I think “Heroes” is more likely to be renewed. My reasoning can be simplified down to one word: FOX

To elaborate, if you didn’t already figure it out, Fox will cancel anything and everything. They also shuffle shows around far more often than is rational. They dump all new shows behind AI, then move them to a difficult or deadly timeslot so they can put the “next big thing” behind AI instead. I don’t have any faith in Fox to keep even halfway decent shows around, so why would Fringe be any different?

If the question were to choose one over the other for MYSELF, I would ask to keep “Fringe” because I think it’s been stronger more consistently (even though it’s been around for a briefer period of time), and JJ Abrams’ ideas and writing are so complex and interesting that I can’t see how “Fringe” will only continue to improve. Heroes has been very good this season, but given its track record, it’s hard to expect it to REMAIN very good.

Also, NBC keeps a lot of their lower-rated shows out of either desperation and/or loyalty to those involved in the productions.

Fox would cancel their own mother’s show if it meant they could put something new behind AI.

Why does it ALWAYS seem that when NBC has a good show on their hands, they let it go to hell?

I can’t picture Fringe going anywhere either though. It’s doing passably in a tough time slot and, like Heroes, I just can’t see what they would want to replace it with. Any new show is going to fizzle and there really isn’t anything on their current lineup that FOX would consider moving that would do any better.

Long story short both shows are excelling in mediocrity and probably will stick around until they totally tank or something else comes along that gives NBC/FOX an excuse to yank em off the air.

Looks like they’re gonna try to bring the numbers up.

Last week Bones did a W18-49 rating of 3.45 and M18-49 of 2.30.

Compare that to Fringe’s nearly even gender split. W18-49 2.2, M18-49 2.15.

I don’t know where you get your stats on this, the boards I am on that are Fringe related are like 80% women. And most of us watch Bones as well as Fringe.

The execs. put FRINGE in it’s current time slot because they believe it can produce numbers over the long haul.

The basic principle is the same for Heroes, its international licenses, syndication and DVD sales only matter if Universal is willing to use them to off set NBC’s losses with a lower license fee. Sure its slightly more complicated than that because Universal own NBC but that’s the basic principle that applies to any and every show when it comes to off network success – is the success/are the profits so big that the production company will sell it lower to keep it on the air?

“Heroes” is NBC’s puppy. And it’s a big seller on DVD. And it’s a hit internationally. And it has an off-net deal on the G4 Network (and I think it was sold into broadcast syndication as well, correct?) If they feel there is more backend value in an off-net package made up of more than 78 episodes, then there will be more than 78 episodes. Let’s just say there isn’t a whole lot of backend value in a package made up of just 78 episodes.

With that said, I very much believe the rumors that Angela Bromstad and Jeff Gaspin are not fans of the show and couldn’t care less about it. So it very well may take a lot of poking and prodding from the accountants to sell them on a 5th and final season.

I for one am rooting for Fringe.

And nemo it’s closer to 0.02% (probably more like 0.0175%) so they are already in way more than .00009%!

At the end of Season 3, it had 59 episodes. To reach syndication level, it needs another 41. That’s two more seasons — 4 and 5. At that point, the production company will score.

This isn’t something the network would give a damn about with most shows, except that in this case, the network IS the production company. So even if they can’t make as much on the ad revenue up front, they’ll recoup that once they have a 100-episode package to sell to the rerun circuit. To get there, they need a full season 4 and a full season 5.

The payoff is big enough, and they’ve stuck it out long enough already and are close enough to that goal, that I see them letting the show run another year before pulling the plug. I would definitely say that the show runners will have to pull some amazing stories out, and pull a ton of viewers back in, for a season 6 to ever happen, but IMO season 5 is already a done deal.

And that’s really the problem regarding Fringe, because even though it’s a much better and more consistent show than Heroes, it doesn’t have those cushions. It has an outside production house — Warner Bros/Bad Robot — and only just on its second season.

That said, J.J. Abrams is something of a juggernaut and if Fox ever wants a shot at his next “Lost” (whatever that might happen to be), they might want to be very nice to him about Fringe. After all, “Alias” was #78 in the ratings for its second AND third seasons, ABC stuck with it, and Abrams gave them “Lost.” Hopefully, for fans of the show, that’s something that Fox is bearing in mind when they look at the long-term picture.

Heroes will likely be renewed for a fifth season if the ratings don’t drop drastically. I just hope they refresh the story and cast a little.

It seems like a fair assumption to make that Fox renewed Dollhouse to in part appease Whedon, they have future projects they’d like to work on with Whedon and want to have a strong working relationship with him. I think people also tend to overlook the importance of Dushku in getting Dollhouse renewed, Fox like her a lot and at least one of the projects Fox wants to develop with Whedon will also involve her.

Away from that there’s also the spectre of Firefly hanging over the Fox/Whedon relationship and it seems likely that Fox wanted to avoid another Firefly, although it should have been obvious that, that wasn’t going to happen with Dollhouse. It seems likely that there may have been higher hopes for the Dollhouse DVD sales as well. On top of that it shouldn’t be overlooked that Whedon slashed the budget to keep Dollhouse on the air.

So how many of those factors can be applied to Fringe and Heroes?

Undoubtedly Fox want to maintain a strong working relationship with Abrams there’s already a lot of provisional interest in his inevitable Star Trek show but do they want to keep the Fringe stars onside? It seems unlikely. And will Abrams slash the Fringe budget? Hard to imagine that happening.

Heroes I don’t think has any of those factors going for it and I suspect Kring and co. used up whatever goodwill they had keeping the show on the air this year. My guess would be that the departure of Bryan Fuller (who NBC would like to keep a good relationship with) will play a large factor in the shows fate as well.

Essentially though I think Dollhouse was a perfect storm. Its unlikely that any show is ever going to have all the additional factors Dollhouse had going for it…

Fringe has a lot of potential to grow and be better. I feel it has like a modern X-files feel to it, which is good enough for me. And J.J. Abrams has shown that he can run a quality television series.

Which brings me to Heroes. I find myself perplexed that some people continue to defend a show that lacks quality and consistency. This show makes Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Lost, or even Smallville look like the Godfather (I’m being nice). The tyrant known as Tim Kring is still running the show, and he has proven time and time again how unqualified he is to run a show of this magnitude. He would have been better off sticking with medical shows. Yet execs at NBC branded this guy as a genius, covering up his blunders in creating stories and blaming (getting other people) fired for his ineptitude.

So I say screw the DVD sales and the international appeal. The fact remains that Heroes has gone downhill. And I feel it will continue do so until it is canceled, making Tim Kring learn his lesson on how to make a real TV series. If Heroes is renewed next season, budget cuts and all, it will not solve the real problem of this show.

I understand and agree with much of chaos amoeba’s thinking with regard to managing relationships and appearances, but in some parallel universe where MNT gave up on Friday Night Smackdown! and The CW bought it back, fans of Friday Night Smackdown will tune to the CW to watch it.

I believe if you put on content people want to watch, they’ll watch regardless of what has transpired on the network in the past. Either way, when the numbers go from 4 million viewers to 2 million viewers, you’ve already alienated 2 million viewers anyway, at least in that time slot.

A bigger “non-ratings” driving factor, in my opinion, is to maintain relationships with potentially collaborative show-runners — I think that was a big pull for Dollhouse (although I think JW’s “potential” is dropping) and is likely to be a non-trivial factor when considering JJ. Kring, as far as I can tell, is relatively disposable. So if it’s based on show-runners, advantage goes to Fringe.

On the other hand, another “non-ratings” component is overall network reputation. Fox had something of a sci-fi legacy, with the X-Files, and DH/TSCC/Fringe seems in large part an attempt to extend that legacy. If you ignore the lines that some of the more polarized fans draw, I would guess that the bulk of science-fiction fans respond “close enough” to all three of those shows. To drop all three of those shows (and not replace it with another scripted science fiction show) would represent a shift in their overall direction. Moreover, if Fox ever wanted to court that particular type of viewer again, it’s reputation may be hurt. On the other hand, Heroes has been much more tightly woven into the “NBC image” over the last few years than Fringe has, so I would argue that Heroes has the advantage here.

Neither of these two rationales are directly ratings related, but they do have an indirect consequence. For example, (1) it is quite possible that Abrams will come up with a new show that would turn out to be popular (and command ratings in the future). In such a case, Fox would not want to be written off, when the show is being shopped around. (2) As noted above, if a network sacrifices their reputation, it may be harder to draw viewers back into their fold when they do have something they want viewers to come back to. Imagine the CW trying to get back the WWE crowd…

And I do find it amusing that you assume that people who point out her connections are fans of the show. Personally, while I think her being his neice helps the show’s chances, I am ambivalent about its survival. The last few episodes have been decent but it’s too little too late.

Now, as others have said, if Fox thinks they have something better to put in that time slot, and they don’t think Fringe will get any better, then they may cancel Fringe. But it’s not a given.

As for the fans suggesting Torv’s relations with Murdoch are significant, hey, that was one person in this thread. And it was Nick C who swore up and down that was the only reason she was hired in the first place – with zero evidence. So that’s irrelevant either way.

I think Fox would be wise to give Fringe one more season (or at least 13 more episodes, with an option for a back nine), even if it does have to be moved to some other less high-pressure night.

But Abrams needs to pick up the pace.