Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P)||0.39|
|Brothers & Sisters (S), (P)||1.01|
|Cougar Town (P)||1.10|
|Private Practice (P)||1.23|
|Desperate Housewives (P)||1.53|
|Grey's Anatomy (P)||1.79|
The last two episodes of FlashForward have each managed just a 2.6 rating for adults 18-49 (vs. ABC's overall season average of a 3.1 rating), so that while FlashForward's season average Index has it comfortably above the renewal line, its latest ratings now place its future very much in doubt.
Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don't expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It's ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday's at 10 in January to try and "save" the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no "saving" it.
How could some shows that didn't even air last week have their Indexes fall? ABC's season average increased last week (raising the bar), so all shows that didn't increase their averages saw their *relative* Indexes fall.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.