Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.39 |
| Hank | 0.52 |
| Eastwick | 0.63 |
| the forgotten | 0.66 |
| The Middle | 0.69 |
| Castle (P) | 0.75 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.00 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.01 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.10 |
| Modern Family | 1.18 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.23 |
| V | 1.45 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.53 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.79 |
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The last two episodes of FlashForward have each managed just a 2.6 rating for adults 18-49 (vs. ABC's overall season average of a 3.1 rating), so that while FlashForward's season average Index has it comfortably above the renewal line, its latest ratings now place its future very much in doubt.
the forgotten, got beat again by The Jay Leno Show last night. And while I have written this many times already, stick a fork in it, it's done.
Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since they may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze their Indexes yet.
Fans of both Castle and The Middle can rest easy for now (although I don't expect them to), their shows will air all the way through the 22 episodes ordered this season. However, their returns for 2010-2011 are very much in doubt. The relative success of new ABC shows this spring may determine their fates.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It's ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday's at 10 in January to try and "save" the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no "saving" it.
How could some shows that didn't even air last week have their Indexes fall? ABC's season average increased last week (raising the bar), so all shows that didn't increase their averages saw their *relative* Indexes fall.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Whoa, hey now. Let’s not go throwing around words like “FlashForward” and “canceled” around in the same sentence so easily. x(
At this point I’m hoping that FlashForward is a one season show. Give the writers warning (and with 24 episodes this season, there should be plenty of time for warning come midseason) and let them give it a good ending. Otherwise, next season will be a nail-biter each week to see if it will get to complete its second season and then maybe get a third to finish the story. Just finish the story the right way now. Everyone will be happier that way.
I think Castle is very safe. Its numbers actually keep going up, and I believe it’ll be renewed. I think FlashForward is also going to be renewed. Despite its lagging of late, ABC has poured loads of cash into this show. I don’t see them giving up on it. Look for a season 2. If it continues to slide after that, it’s toast.
There needs to be a little more quirkiness in FlashForward
I agree with Julia re: FF — one and done is the best way to go. Tell the story well, end it well, and move on. Given the premise, I can’t imagine what they would plan to do after April 29, anyway…
Flashforward is in no danger at this point
FlashForward is clearly not catching on. It’s serialized and barring a makeover miracle by new showrunners, it’s not likely to add more viewers. Same thing is happening to V.
I actually agree that if done right Flashforward can have a satisfying ending after only 24 episodes. If they wrap up each storyline properly it might be a good thing. A lot of people felt the show should have been a movie anyway.
I still hope that FF gets to tell it’s whole story in three seasons. And actually, seeing how V is doing, I think this improves FF’s chances. If V drops below 2.6 next week (and FF stays the same) I don’t think anybody at ABC will expect V to suddenly go back to 3.x.
Wait, when did a 1.0 become the cut-off line? I thought it was .90?
Evil, I don’t think V drops below 2.6. I would guess a 10% drop to 2.8.
Regarding FlashForward post April 29: clearly there will be a falling out from whatever happens that day, either the future we all saw or an altered one. It’s pretty clear the blackouts were the cause of a conspiracy, and we know it’s happened in the past. I imagine they could strike again. That’s more than enough potential for more than one season. The story isn’t over on April 29th. It’ll open up a ton of new questions. It seems April 29th will be the middle of the story.
Andrea, the cutoff is usually .92, but if you read the prose, Bill explains that FlashForward’s recent results put it in danger, considering the past two weeks would be at .84.
I love Castle, and hate that it’s still in the orange, but even I have to admit that I’m skeptical about a third season. Next week is going to be a good test because it won’t have DWTS as a direct lead-in. If next week’s numbers are down drastically, we Castle fans should be prepared to enjoy the rest of the season because it won’t be coming back.
@ MichyGeary — I respect your opinion and grant that there may be post-April 29 story lines for FF. However, I think those stories would be anticlimatic and wonder how many viewers would really care. FF has demonstrated a potentially terminal lack of lean, crisp storytelling to date, and the post-4/29 letdown could pose an especially problematic plot challenge for FF writers. One man’s opinion… Of course, it’s the nature of television to milk every drop of revenue from a marketable property, so if there are enough viewers who want more, I’m sure they’ll get it, regardless of whether it’s the best artistic decision.
I have watched the first six hours of Flash Forward, and forgive me, but I am STRUGGLING to keep watching the show even though they load up on my TIVO. I so want to stop but if it suddenly gets more compelling, I dont want to have bailed on it. Fans of the show, please tell me why I should keep watching even as the Neilsen ratings sink lower and lower.
Rob, I’m a pretty relaxed fan of FlashForward. I think it’s pretty compelling in that it keeps posing new questions. Things are starting to fall into place for these people’s flashforwards to come true, but they all keep doing things that will make their flashforwards impossible. It’s interesting to watch them uncover the mysteries step by step. At least, that’s how I feel. Plus the last few episodes’ endings have been pretty hard-hitting.
At a 1.00 average, Flash Forward looks fine, but recent episodes are well below the average, so by May it could easily be in some real danger.
Just a prediction, not a comment on the quality of any of these shows:
Castle is safe, I believe, because it’s in house and its numbers have stabilized. I think ABC believes those rating will now start to increase if it is patient and brings it back next season. Unless the numbers start to drop again, can’t see them tossing this one overboard quite yet.
FF is dead in the water–it’s numbers have not yet stabilized and have been below the cancellation line the past few weeks. It’s also in house, but it still must stabilize AND now reverse course and go up some if it is going to get picked up. That is pretty rare, especially for a show that has almost no buzz going for it. Personally, I don’t see them stabilizing quite yet. I see another 20-30% drop over the course of the season before they do, and that will be deadly for them.
V is probably dead in the water, but it’s got time to fix things. Unfortunately, due to massive boneheadedness, that time is now approximately one week. Had the show clicked and kept the big ratings through four episodes, then I would have been willing to believe it would retain its viewers when it comes back next spring. Considering it’s massive drop off since the premiere, however, and considering another double digit drop-off this week, being gone for four months will kill it deader than . . .
It’s also not an in house production, so that works against it big time. Expect the retooled version to come back with lots of promos (V: NEW AND IMPROVED–YEAH!!!!) and crossed network fingers in the spring, and then watch it get yanked before it finishes its run as its numbers bottom out horribly.
Just an opinion based solely on the numbers, where they have been, where they are now, and where those trends make me think they are going. Personally, I’d like to see all three shows come back, in the hopes that all three will improve with time and tinkering, but I only see that working for Castle at the moment.
Remember, this ain’t NBC. They don’t have to keep any of them, a la Heroes, which I believe is coming back next season.
At this rate, ABC will remove the doubts for us by scheduling the show on a different night, thus guaranteeing an index that leads to cancellation.
But don’t worry, FF/Castle fans, if V completes their order, they’ll be taking the pole position for Index headlines inside a month.
And I think Castle worries are premature. ABC only has 2 hours on Thu, 2 hours on Sun, and half an hour of comedy* that’s guaranteed to come back next year – they’ll need Castle to hang around.
*Honestly, I consider Cougar Town orange, and think that by April, the only reason the then borderline case will be renewed is because of Bill Lawrence’s name.