Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.20 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.24 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.25 |
| Fringe | 0.58 |
| Bones (P) | 0.75 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.77 |
| Glee (P) | 0.89 |
| American Dad (P) | 0.91 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.10 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.12 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.23 |
| House | 1.48 |
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Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.7 vs. ~3.o before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
Dollhouse has been officially canceled. The only difference between it, 'Til Death and Brothers is there has been no announcements about them. There may never be. They'll continue to air episodes for some unknown period of time and then vanish.
With those 3 shows out of the way, Fringe is the only remaining scripted show in Fox's lineup in some danger of cancellation. Could Fox renew it based on the fact it knew it was going to get crushed at 9pm Thursdays? Yes. But they also could decide they could do better in that time slot. It's an interesting situation because I'm not sure how much new useful ratings information about Fringe's situation we'll get before the end of the year when decisions are made, short of an unlikely big change upwards or downwards in the ratings.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think it's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think Fringe will be renewed for 2 reasons. A) It’s produced by JJ Abrams B)It’s on Thursday. That means they had lower expectations.
And C) Anna Torv is Rupert Murdoch’s niece.
above a 2.2 this could get a new season, in my opinion.
We have a new abbreviation to add!
(R) – Relations: Cast or crew member is in a relationship with or is related to the chairmen of the parent company or a top executive at the network.
I just don’t see what they could put in it’s place that would do better. House? No way in hell are they going to move House out of Mondays with the ratings it’s pulling down currently. Lie To Me? It would do as well, maybe worse, as Fringe is doing currently. Bones? Just don’t see them moving Bones over from it’s currently successful slot to a slot where it would have seriously stiff competition. Glee? Sure it’s doing respectable where it’s at but it would get crushed in that timeslot. Kitchen Nightmares? Is that even still on? Hell’s Kitchen? I see this as the most likely candidate but Christ how many of these can we have per season and would it do BETTER than Fringe? I doubt it would. That leaves a new show. While I wouldn’t put it past FOX to throw some new show out to fail on Thursdays it would just fail and quickly get canceled.
Grrrr my kingdom for an edit button!
All of the above being said and combined with the obvious plus of having J.J. Abrams on board and the fact I really believe that really didn’t have terribly high hopes for it to begin with lead me to believe that Fringe will indeed be back next season mostly for lack of a better option
Eric, Hells Kitchen wouldn’t have to do as well as Fringe is doing now to be successful. It’s a much cheaper show to make. I think FOX will go right to the last minute when it comes to Fringe. If it goes any lower in the ratings its going to get canceled. I’m sure FOX doesn’t want to alienate JJ Abrams, but they aren’t going to lose money over him either.
I’m glad to see that Glee is looking good for a renew. When it gets put back behind American Idol, its ratings might even go up.
I’m interested that Lie to Me is viewed as so safe – I’m just not 100% sure there’s not a reasonable likelihood of cancellation. Yes, it does OK but it has a lot of strong lead-ins (AI, House) and while I’m not a pure retitionista – it’s the same reason why AoP might look Ok on basic number it’s really not given the position it’s placed (AoP’s situation is more damning though). Further, the fact that Anna Torv is Murdoch’s niece is not beneficial in any way – the divorce was messy and it is only a niece by marriage (she is also estranged from her father – Murdoch’s ex-wife’s broth). On a complete side note – Fringe has been filming at my uni UBC for the last two days and I walked on to the set and nobody stopped me hehehe – seemed like they were filming some kind of Bah Mitzvah scene (sorry about the spelling). I even took pictures of the trailers! Interesting that they use the characters names and not the actors!
Fringe needs to be moved out of Thursdays 10/9 PERIOD!!! CSI, Grey, The Office. That is too much. CSI might not be as strong but still strong, and Grey is doing better with the 18-49 demo. The Office also pulls the young demos as well.
Like the CW, FOX’s series fates look already sealed. Dollhouse has been announced as axed and Brothers & Til Death are just burning through their eps until May when both are officially axed. Besides Fringe and Lie to Me everything else is a sure thing to return for 2010-2011. Fringe is doing badly facing the other 9:00 Thursday competition (but still better than the slot last year) and Lie to Me’s retention is good but has no spot on the midseason sched yet and no order for additional eps, yet. But FOX needs dramas so for the second year they will do whatever they can to save the two. SO bring on the midseason sched.
Networks put their strongest shows up against their strongest competition. That’s the only way you can beat a strong competitor – go head to head. Otherwise you’re just ceding the time slot to that competitor.
The fact that Fox put Fringe up against heavy competition means they figured it was their best shot. The fact that it is not succeeding therefore does not mean it will be canceled unless Fox really believes that 1) they have a better show they can put in that time slot – opinions here indicate they don’t; or 2) they have a new show they have confidence in that they can put in that slot; but we don’t know of any.
TSCC was in the same boat in season one – placed on Mondays against killer competition because the Terminator franchise was considered a guaranteed hit. Unfortunately it wasn’t. So Fox moved it to Fridays.
I see Fox either moving Fringe to another night, or leaving it on Thursday and unless they have something better it will remain there. It will only be canceled if they think a new show or a reshuffling of their other shows provides them with a better option. And we have evidence that of that. Of course, Fox might think differently than we do.
S/b “We have no evidence of that.”
I really love Fringe! I can’t believe it doesn’t get as much ratings as I thought. It would really be sorely missed by my entire family if it does get axed. Lie to Me is also a great show! Of course, they don’t go with thought-provoking shows, just *coughs* family guy. Waste of time…
I think FOX would be consistent so theyd leave Fringe on thursdays. Theres barely any other slots to move it to. The only other one would be Tuesdays at 9 and Fridays at 8 or 9. Since FOX isnt trying to kill the series, Fringe could move to its old Tuesdays at 9 slot following Idol. Past Life would likely air its 7 eps on fridays and Hell’s Kicthen could assume the Thursdays at 9 slot like last season.
I really hope Fringe isn’t cancelled, my mom and I would be really disappointed. We both really enjoy watching it together. It’s just too bad that Fox had to move it so fast before it had a chance to gain its own audience. But even with the Thrusday 9 pm competition I still didn’t expect the numbers to go as low as they have. I’m still not convinced that Lie To Me is 100% safe. While it’s doing fine, I do think the numbers following House should still be better. Remember the demos Fringe got when it followed House last season? Usually upper 3′s to low 4′s. Lie To Me isn’t even cracking a 3.0 in that slot and the one time it followed So You Think You Can Dance the ratings were quite a bit lower meaning without the House lead in the numbers would probably be just as bad as they are for Fringe right now…….
This show absolutely MUST BE SAVED. Its my favorite show on right now besides LOST and maybe Dexter…..should we start a letter writing campaign? WHOSE WITH ME
I’m with you. SAve Fringe Projects BEGIN!
FOX is very stable right now compared to the previous season where they always struggle during fall season. I wonder if they’ll keep the fall season run of SYTYCD, the show is doing that bad but not spectacular but it does help fill the slots while AI is away
Lie to me needs to go. I like the show and all but it’s pulling mediocre numbers behind house where fringe could really flourish. Does anybody else agree that putting Glee is really stupid? Why not put a struggling show or a new series in that slot, glee is doing fine without it. If FOX would cancel Fringe the backlash would be enormous