Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 15, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.60 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.62 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.67 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.92 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.98 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.06 |
| The Mentalist | 1.09 |
| CSI (P) | 1.11 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.12 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.13 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.21 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.37 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.40 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.49 |
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With a Renew / Cancel Index of 0.92, Accidentally On Purpose would seem to be in pretty good shape for renewal for next season, but it has a sweet timeslot (following How I Met Your Mother) and I think it's very likely that CBS expected it to do a lot better. I think Accidentally On Purpose could be canceled at the end of the season and become this year's Worst Week. Last season, Worst Week had an even better timeslot (following Two and a Half Men @ 9:30), but it was canceled with an above average Index of 1.01.
In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It's now in significant danger of not coming back.
Both Three Rivers and Cold Case will be canceled by the end of this season. Their timeslots are being switched, likely to try and make the best of the late Sunday ratings mess at CBS, but ignore the nonsense about CBS possibly ordering more episodes of Three Rivers. That's typical of the ridiculous internet chatter that pops up during a show's slide into oblivion.
The Good Wife seems to have stabilized at about a 2.8 adults 18-49 rating. On NBC, it would be a star, on CBS that's borderline. Fans can anticipate sleepless nights until next season's schedule is announced.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, they were last season too. If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be renewed for yet another season.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Did Accidentally On Purpose get an order for more episodes? I’m completely blanking on if it did or not.
put christine back where it should be and get Accidentaly On Purpose and Gary Unmarried the boot!
It got 5 more episodes if I’m not mistaken.
I actually enjoy the show and think its funny. Its more or less a standard sitcom with the twist that the lead is pregnant. The pregnancy isn’t really the central plot its mostly the device that brought the two main characters together.
It’s in a cushy time slot. But is there anything else to fill the slot? Even CBS has to realize “a bird in the hand…”
I think AoP got five or six extra episodes, exactly enough to cover the timeslot until RoE can take over – at which point it is never seen again.
But hey, at least some people here are finally cluing in on the “2009′s Worst Week” arc.
Good Wife / Chrstine / Unmarried will all revolve around pilot development, and how many shows are picked up.
I think Bill is spot on, AoP is the weak link in CBS’s Monday lineup. It’s ratings would make it a rock star on any other network, but for CBS it’s under-performing. I think it will get the same exact treatment that Worst Week got, it will have it’s season finale, and we won’t know anything until May when the 2010-11 schedule is announced. I don’t see it getting a 2nd season.
numbers, three rivers, and cold case are all going to be cancelled.
i liked new christine better when it was on after two and a half men
CBS should try Numb3rs on Sunday night at 9, seems like it’d go well there.
Rules of Engagement should get a 22-ep order.
That is an insult to “Worst Week,” which was itself unwatchable.
“AOP” is an slap in the face to the intelligence of every American TV viewer.
Take it off!
Yay for Ghost Whisperer! It’s index still is 0.63 like last week. This season’s ratings are just horrible after last seasons 11.5 million viewers(4×07). I REAALY hope it doesn’t get cancelled because of the ratings. The show still Almost always win the night and if not, the timeslot.
I think Numbers is doomed, no way there’s gonna be a new season. I hope Garry Unmarried gets cancelled this year so Jay Mohr can return in GW. I mean… man, he’s been gone for 6 years(not real time).
AOP, ROE, Christine, and Gary Unmarried are all bad shows! I can pause it and predict their jokes way too often. They don’t compare to HIMYM, BBT, and even 2 and 1/2 Men. I’m happy that the public seems to agree. CBS can do better than losing .5 in the demo at 8:30.
CK, CBS will develop a new comedy to fill the spot. They have to cancel something to keep things going. That’s how TV works.
hey where is the Renew / Cancel Index for FOX?
I wish they’d just give a real 22-episode order to Rules of Engagement. It always gets pretty good ratings when it’s on in the spring, yet they keep treating it like a bastard stepchild. Is there some reason why they don’t give RoE a full-season order? Does David Spade have a contract where he only has to work 12 weeks a year or something?
I am vaguely aware of how TV works… I’m sure CBS will develop many many more comedies in the coming months/years. I just don’t see a comedy available in the immediate future to fill the AoP slot if it were canceled in the immediate future.
“Numb3rs” is my favorite CBS program. It seems misplaced in the now female-friendly Friday lineup. (Don’t get me wrong, I never miss “Medium,” either. “Ghost Whisperer,” JLH’s curvaceous charms notwithstanding, “jumped the shark” last year with the dead/not dead Jim/Sam story line, so I gave up on that one. But I digress.)
Before CBS abandons a successful, long-running program, perhaps the network should evaluate finding a different place on the schedule for “Numb3rs.”
CK, AoP will stay on the air until May. So they won’t need to replace it until next season. By then CBS will have a new show to put in it’s place.
I don’t care for AoP or even watch it, but it only has HIMYM as a lead in not TAAHM like Worst Week had, so while it is the weak link in the line up, I do think it’s not as easy to assess that Rules of Engagement would do better in the same slot as it was last year with WW.
Actually, I do not think RoE would do better and while CBS should keep at it looking for something to complement TAAHM and TBBT, AoP is doing the job right now and yanking it before season’s end does not seem the best way to go. For next year all bets are off.
Or, it will stay on until Rules of Engagement comes back, Rules will most likely take over the 8:30 timeslot when it returns.