Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.69 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.71 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.75 |
| Community | 0.83 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.92 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.97 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.14 |
| The Office (P) | 1.56 |
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Who was the guy who wrote "Law & Order: Twenty And Done"? Oh yeah, me.
In my defense, the show's ratings on Friday began terribly. Here are the adults 18-49 ratings for the episodes this season (1.2, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7, 1.6). It's almost as if the fans couldn't find the show during its first two weeks. A show increasing its ratings by 25+% over a short period like that rarely happens.
If Law & Order can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) it's back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC's overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.
Trauma is canceled now, no new episodes will be ordered. Mercy's ratings make it effectively as canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma. No chance it comes back next season.
The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Mercy has gotten so much better.
Anybody know why it’s going to be delayed for THREE WEEKS?!
Nothing would make me happier than to see L&O continue. I’ve been loving it this past two seasons, having stayed away for [gulp] eight years.
Mercy has gotten really good. Its a shame:(
i think mercy is getting alot better….
Seriously enjoying L&O this season. I’d prefer it air at 9 out of Dateline, but the positive momentum it’s shown means they probably won’t mess with that night.
great thing is dick wolf has kept his costs down from day one of the show in 1990. very prescient considering the current climate.
With SVU the only solid drama and NBC’s only other veteran drama Heroes performing questionable, maybe NBC may be willing to keep L&O for year 21. The series will now be old enough to drink legally. All kidding aside, NBC is in such bad shape that at this point anythjing goes. Trauma has already been axed and will burn through all 13 eps, while Mercy is only likely 9 more eps from the same position. And NBC’s stronger comedies The Offfice and 30 Rock are the only thing keeping Parks and Community on for the season but if anything I believe Community will stick around. (If NBC has anything to salvage from this season).
Mercy’s getting better doesn’t mean much when it was dismal to begin with.
Wow! With numbers this low its not going to take much for Chuck much to get renewed for season 4!
Even with most of NBC’s other dramas failing, Chuck will still have to hold up to get a fourth year.
With Heroes consistently hitting lows, and the two 8pm sitcoms holding steady at around the same level Heroes has fallen to, I would expect Community and Parks to even last longer. Heroes should definately be orange next week.
Old dogs, new tricks, hmmm there’s a British TV show called “New Tricks” that fits that adage perfectly
It’s amazing how much football skews NBC’s numbers. Without football, NBC’s results from last week would have been 5.9 million viewers and a 1.9 demo. How in the world does the network manage to wring profits out of that, especially in this market?
Were it not for football and the Olympics, we’d see NBC’s season long average in the mid 5 millions and a sub-2. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it slip sub-5 million once the April repeat doldrums roll around.
Who would have thought that 30 Rock will be one of the top players of NBC considering how bad the ratings were on season 1?
Law and Order should be scheduled at 9pm, it could give Medium good competition base from the ratings it got when it had a 9pm run two weeks ago
Law & Order is offering fantastic story lines this season, and it’s one of the best seasons they’ve had in a while. Connie and Cutter are pushing Benson and Stabler out of the way as the favorite L&O franchise “couple”! Roache is getting a bigger fan following and that can only help ratings grow.
Go season 21!!
NBC should keep The Office, Law and Order, 30 Rock, SVU and maybe Mercy and Heroes, depending storylines and ratings, then revamp their ENTIRE line-up. Put Mercy with a show that is similiar to it, hospital or something, if they keep it. Put Heroes with Chuck on Mondays, again if they choose to keep Heroes, get two fresh GOOD QUALITY sitcoms, for the 8pm hour on Thursdays, and put Law and Order and SVU at 9 and 10pm respectively on some night, and for god sakes, Leno 5 nights a week? Give him 1 night at most, Friday or Tuesday seems to be a good pick.
Here’s to L&O, which has gotten better both in terms of the quality of its episodes and its ratings as the weeks have progressed. Keep ‘em coming!
Also, I join others here who mention that Mercy has emerged as a quality program. Despite the “terminal” prognosis, I hope NBC finds a way to keep it alive. To do so would reward the network in the long run. One man’s opinion…
WOW! I just checked the Renew/Cancel Index (RCI) from last year and my GOD NBC is doing horrible. Heroes closed out in the top 10 shows on network TV in terms of it’s RCI last spring with 1.60 and now it’s down to a 0.92!!
*Granted, we’re looking at ratings in progress versus the full season info but still a 42.5% decline…that’s BAD! Rob are the RCI numbers comparable from one year to the next?
As a Chuck fan I know how brutal Monday 8pm is so my sympathies to the remaining Heroes fans but I suppose the best thing to do is take comfort in the fact that it’s not just Heroes…all of the NBC shows are down. P&R from 1.7 to 0.75 (down 55%), the Office from 1.78 to 1.56 (down 12%), and 30 Rock from 1.42 to 1.14 (down 20%). I’ll have to check to see if the other networks are seeing this type of attrition but NBC just seems to be a blood bath this year.
My biggest problem with “Law and Order” in the past few years is their scripts seem to be written from PSA talking points for what ever cause the show seems to be defending that week, be it abortion rights, anti-war sentiment, immigration, etc. One of the reasons I was drawn to “Law and Order” in the 90′s was because the writing was outstanding with regards to understanding the legal process and was apolitical enough to keep it from being too preachy. I’d rather watch repeats than the newer shows.