Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Beautiful Life: TBL (P)||0.49*|
|Melrose Place (P)||0.60|
|Smallville (F), (P)||0.89|
|Gossip Girl (P)||0.95|
|One Tree Hill (P)||0.96|
|Supernatural (S), (P)||0.99|
|Vampire Diaries (P)||1.41|
The return of the appropriately aged (a year younger than yours truly) Heather Locklear gave Melrose Place a small ratings boost, but not nearly enough to give any hope to those who thought she might save the show. She only lifted the shows ratings to the level they held in early October. I thought the show was dead then, and ratings will likely to trail off from last night's levels. That's too little, too late.
Note that Smallville, Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill have yet to air a repeat, while all other CW scripted shows have. Right now that puts them temporarily on the up side of the see-saw and the others on the down side, but things should even out once every show has a similar number of repeats into their averages which will happen in the next month or so. At the moment 90210, Melrose Place, Supernatural and Vampire Diaries are a bit lower in the Index than they should be for that reason.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.