Another article where Bill alleges things that are not exactly true but not exactly false either! The precise headline would've been longish: TV Viewing was down; We don't know how much was due to New Moon, but we know New Moon doesn't explain all of it! But I do have data, and you can't allege that none of last night's losses were due to New Moon.
Though absolute viewer losses for primetime in both of the major adult categories were under 2%, on a relative basis it was closer to 4% and higher at 8pm when The Vampire Diaries aired.
All numbers below are preliminary 18-49 ratings (H/P is % of adults 18-49 watching TV for the time periods specified):
8p-11p
| 12-Nov | 19-Nov | Diff | |
| ABC | 4 | 3.5 | 12.50% |
| CBS | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.63% |
| FOX | 2.5 | 2.3 | 8.00% |
| NBC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 4.17% |
| CW | 1.7 | 1.5 | 11.76% |
| H/P | 37.8 | 36.4 | 3.70% |
| Just 8p-10p | |||
| ABC | 4 | 3.7 | 7.50% |
| CBS | 4 | 3.7 | 7.50% |
| FOX | 2.5 | 2.3 | 8.00% |
| NBC | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.57% |
| CW | 1.7 | 1.5 | 11.76% |
| H/P | 38.6 | 37 | 4.15% |
| Just 8p-9p | |||
| ABC | 2.6 | 2.4 | 7.69% |
| CBS | 4 | 3.8 | 5.00% |
| FOX | 2.9 | 2.7 | 6.90% |
| NBC | 2.1 | 2 | 4.76% |
| CW | 2 | 1.7 | 15.00% |
| H/P | 37 | 35.2 | 4.86% |
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The CW numbers will likely look even worse in the finals when local NFL viewing in Miami on the local CW affiliate is stripped out. You'll note that at 8pm there were nearly 5% fewer (relative, not absolute) adults 18-49 watching TV and it appears that the CW was hit disproportionately hard at 8pm (while the other networks were down more or less in line with the relative decrease in viewers).
So, there were fewer viewers watching TV at 8pm on a night when a new movie about vampires came out. What a shocker that a TV show about vampires (The Vampire Diaries) got hit disproportionately hard! OMFG! I can't believe it!
Two things happened last night:
1.) less adults 18-49 watched TV than the week before
2.) of the adults 18-49 still watching TV, fewer of them watched the major English language broadcast nets than the week before
Certainly last night's across the board declines for the broadcast networks can't be attributed exclusively to fewer viewers watching. There were fewer viewers, but they don't account for all of the drops. Cable, claimed some of those broadcast viewers.
But it's no speculative leap to conclude New Moon did have some impact, particularly in the case of The Vampire Diaries.
This is exactly what I said in the other article!
I feel so smart.
Robert,
I think Bill is spot on with his sunspot theory in his “New Moon” thread because there are indeed two sun spots that belong to the New solar cycle.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
The reality is you’re all wrong. The truth is several billion people were actually using Hulu.com to watch {whatever show it is that I’m concerned they’re going to cancel or already have canceled that I’d like uncanceled}.
That’s the truth. The Hulu.com figures will back me up here.
Yet Vampire Diaries still manages to do well either way so who cares in the end. Still number one for the CW. So smallville fans can just shut up.
I don’t think anyone has said that New Moon didn’t play some part, only that the declines are not “massive” and if anything, the declines are “minor”. The movie may have caused some viewers to either DVR or miss their favorite series, but those people do not represent a large majority (or even large minority) of the people watching television last night.
Also in the case of the sports premptions for the CW, if they pushed VD later in the night that will also cause a larger then normal drop, oppossed to last weeks preemption.
At least one would assume.
Using the CW Supernatural had almost no change (both had premptions, though last week I think was larger market, on this I could easily be wrong). 2.774 million to 2.74 a difference of a mere 32,000. ANd easily in line with its last month of originals performance (and the last week also had NFL).
Yet VD is down dramatically. By roughly 590,000 thousands. So what factor would cause such a large difference between the two. Both have roughly the same number of male viewers (based on extrapolation with the female and adult demos we get). But VD has a significantly larger female audience. So if the reason was primarily football, then it would be logical to effect SN, that didn’t seem to happen. That leaves the show most likely being hit by New Moon.
MsWood, in the Miami market, Vampire Diaries didn’t air at all last night. The numbers will drop in the finals because the football viewing *is* included in the numbers above. Even INCLUDING the football viewing Vampire Diaries was down 15% with adults 18-49 and I think it’s probably fair to say at least as many people in Miami watched the game last night as would’ve watched Vampire Diaries.
I wasn’t sure if they aired it or not, last week they aired it after the game. But that is up to the affiliates. But nice to now.
Now the question is, was that market larger then last week’s?
Also if we would have had the gender breakdown it would help to see the differences between this week and last, which of ocurse we will get a good clue with final numbers.
I can buy into the argument that New Moon hit The Vampie Diaries, given the obvious overlap in audiences for the two show however I’m struggling to believe there was any real connection to the down turn to anything else.
It will be interesting to see w 18-34 numbers for the office and Grey’s. And then the demo breakdown of the Football game. Travis is gonna tell me to knock it the hell off.
VD had a great episode last night too…
I don’t usually watch it, its just on for background noise for SN to start.
It will be interesting to see if DVR usage for Vampire Diaries is higher this week due to viewers recording it so they can watch New Moon in theaters.
The episode was great! I loved it, many people probably caught it online, who knows? New Moon shouldn’t have been available to watch until midnight last night, so it doesn’t make sense(to me anyway) that there were less viewers at 8pm slot. How do they track online viewers? I guess they can’t, so how will they really know how well it did?
Ms Wood, last week was different because of the west coast market (San Francisco) and having enough time left over to still run part of the CW primetime schedule. In Miami, the game would’ve gone past 11pm, so no chance.
New Moon approx attendence last night was 3.3 million. Lets pretend half of the missed the entire 8-11 primetime period due to line waiting, pre gaming etc…And the other half could of watched TV between 8-10. Now lets say most of those 1.2 million or so people would have watched TV last night.(1 million or so viewers) We know from Data given to us by Bill and Robert, half of those would have watched cable. That leaves only about an impact of 500 thousand viewers on the broadcast overnights. Most of those probably Grey’s and VD viewers.
For comparison, the NFL game last night had viewer numbers most likely in excess of 4 million.
I think only THE VAMPIRE DIARIES was considerably affected by New Moon.
I don’t think its a stretch by any means to say Vampire Dairies was affected.
As far as Vampire Diaries being better than Smallville that’s a laugh. Lets see how Vampire Diaries does in its 9th year on TV and then we can make comparisons.
Dave C.: I like your logical breakdown of the numbers except you’re missing a key detail. The New Moon audience is not an average audience. It’s very specifically limited to women and those women fall into two groups: young teens and slightly older, slightly deranged, vampire-obsessed fanatics. I think both these groups would gravitate more towards Vampire Diaries than your breakdown would suggest.