Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P)||0.39|
|Brothers & Sisters (S), (P)||1.01|
|Cougar Town (P)||1.10|
|Private Practice (P)||1.20|
|Desperate Housewives (P)||1.53|
|Grey's Anatomy (P)||1.77|
Three shows continue to be in some danger of cancellation by ABC by the end of this season, but each has a unique situation. The Middle, now freed of the Hank albatross, jumped to a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating this past week. That was over 80% of ABC's average for the week. A bit more ratings improvement would remove doubts about its future. Same with Castle. It has averaged 84% of ABC's 4 week overall 18-49 ratings. Its ratings improved again last night, it's prognosis is on the upswing. On the flipside, FlashForward ratings continue to deteriorate. After starting strong, it's noticeably below average over the past 4 weeks (89% of ABC's average) and it hit a series low on November 22.
the forgotten, has a full season an order for additional episodes, but there is virtually no chance it returns in fall 2010. Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since they may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze their Indexes yet.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It's ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday's at 10 in January to try and "save" the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no "saving" it.
Beginning this week, for show's in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.