Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.39 |
| Hank | 0.52 |
| Eastwick | 0.63 |
| the forgotten | 0.65 |
| The Middle | 0.71 |
| Castle (P) |  0.76 |
| FlashForward (P) |  0.97 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.01 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.10 |
| Modern Family | 1.18 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.20 |
| V | 1.30 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.53 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.77 |
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Three shows continue to be in some danger of cancellation by ABC by the end of this season, but each has a unique situation. The Middle, now freed of the Hank albatross, jumped to a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating this past week. That was over 80% of ABC's average for the week. A bit more ratings improvement would remove doubts about its future. Same with Castle. It has averaged 84% of ABC's 4 week overall 18-49 ratings. Its ratings improved again last night, it's prognosis is on the upswing. On the flipside, FlashForward ratings continue to deteriorate. After starting strong, it's noticeably below average over the past 4 weeks (89% of ABC's average) and it hit a series low on November 22.
the forgotten, has a full season an order for additional episodes, but there is virtually no chance it returns in fall 2010. Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since they may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze their Indexes yet.
Ugly Betty only returned to get enough episodes for syndication, which it will have by the end of this season. It's ratings are dreadful. There is some entertainment press chatter that Ugly Betty may move to Wednesday's at 10 in January to try and "save" the show. It may very well move, but short of ABC wanting to produce more episodes for syndication (a longshot) there is no "saving" it.
Beginning this week, for show's in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
When did The Forgotten get a full season pickup? It was 5 additional episodes (so 18) last I heard.
Love the Smiley’s
I hope castle survives i really like the show. I also hate FF so by by.
I love Castle, Flash Forward, Cougar Town, V, and Desperate Housewives. Im really happy for castle and sad for Flash forward! I wish hope that the producers know what is going on and will try to fix it.
Igor, if Castle can hold these ratings I’d say it’s a safe bet it will be back for 2010-11. The Middle is also looking good for next season if it can hold the 2.4 demo. I don’t see how FlashForward can reverse the trend, even if the show becomes 1000 times better in the next few episodes it’s going to be hard to draw the audience back in.
I’m really interested in seeing how V performs tonight. I think V and FF are competing against each to come back next year, and right now it looks like V has the upper hand. If V plummets like FF did then both are done.
I still think it would be a wise move to move FlashForward to the 10PM slot on Wednesdays. It does get a big boost from DVR viewing, and while that’s meaningless maybe ABC could get move live viewers in a less competitive timeslot? It’s also seems more like a 10PM show instead of an 8PM one. Since FF is from ABC Studios I can see them trying a schedule change to try to help it.
With Ted and Scrubs likely dead after this year I hope ABC brings back The Middle. Such a great show.
I think ABC will be willing to let Scrubs and BoT go after this year if the ratings are as bad as they were last year. I really like BoT, but it doesn’t do very well ratings wise. ABC has 2 hit comedies (MF and CT) now, so I’d say the renewal bar for comedies will be higher this year compared to last.
I love the faces, what a fun way to express the four week data.
Brad, you are correct. It was not a full season for the forgotten.
Love the emoticons, clever
I hope FlashForward bounces back and that V will not drop for its 4th episode. And also The Middles climbs to at least 2.6
V will drop for its fourth straight episode. The drop may not be as dramatic as the previous drops (the curve is flattening out), the trend is still downward. It will be interesting to see what happens to V after several months out of the public consciousness.
I’m bummed about FlashForward, but not surprised. I’ve been watching the show since it premiered, and I really want to like it, but I’m continually underwhelmed. The concept has so much promise and the execution has just been weak.
The FlashForward writers really need to make the most of this week-long break. The plot has completely veered off the tracks over the past four episodes, but the premise is intriguing enough to still salvage a half-decent show.
Fingers crossed.
I love Castle and really hope it gets renewed. Nathan Fillion and Stana Katic have great chemistry, the two “other” police officers are good and the Mom and daughter are excellent! (Just read Heat Wave, the book tie-in and it was really good and really steamy!)
I am loving how much is going into the renew/cancel index this year. The color coding was great, but the smileys are the icing on the cake. The more depth that is brought to light on these shows the better.
Just another reason TVByTheNumbers is my homepage
I think FlashForward should get the same chance that Castle did to improve it’s ratings. Castle didn’t do too well last year either and it was given another chance this year to improve. I think they should do the same for FlashForward. Besides, this is a show I like. I don’t care for Castle at all.
Let’s keep watching CASTLE!!!, this show can’t go anywhere.
V will not come back. Not because of ratings, but because it is a 13-Episode mini-series.
I enjoy FlashForward but it proves that the writers of LOST are one of a kind. No show can equal its brilliance.
I think Castle will be back. It’s such a steady performer and in the 10 o’clock slot, no less. I don’t think ABC will give up on FlashForward. Despite dwindling ratings, the show has succeeded in carving out a pop culture presence (much like Lost did). I’m slightly sold on what some people think: it will come down to V or FlashForward in May but why not V AND FlashForward Tuesdays at 9:00 and 10:00 pm respectively next season. If FlashForward can hold the same figures, it’ll be a leading 10 pm performer for the net instead of a so-so lead-off on Thursdays. And The Middle I think really depends on the comedy development slate. If they need an extra player, it’ll come back but if they’ve got a lot of options they will trim the fat. The Middle seems to be catching on though. I hear more and more about it from friends and press. I think it’s got a shot at a future.
Flash Forward will get ample opportunity to stay on the sked for 10/11 – since it’s an ABC Studios show, as Justin Wilson would say, “I gar-on-tee it!”…
…but Castle also is an ABC Studios show, and likely has a lower cost of production than Flash Forward, and has managed the neat trick of increasing in the index over the past several weeks – shows that do that, and not from below a 2.0 demo, always have a chance, even on CBS…
…if Flash Forward can stop the bleeding quick, it will likely go back to green shortly. If not, then get ready for Dr. McCoy’s intonation, “It’s worse than that, Jim,…”
Castle actually beat Flash Forward this week, so the trend is definitely in Castle’s favor.
I think if ABC moves the middle to 8:00, or gives it a non-hank non-repeat lead-in, it will really improve.