Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) |  0.54 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.69 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.71 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.75 |
| Community | 0.82 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.91 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.97 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.12 |
| The Office (P) | 1.53 |
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On November 3 I wrote "Heroes: Far From Its Peak, But Far From Dead". Including the night before (11/2), Heroes had averaged a 2.47 adults 18-49 rating its previous six airings. After I wrote that, Heroes' ratings fell, going 2.3, 2.2, 2.3. That's the difference between "OK", and "Uh, Oh". Those quicker than I to suggest unproven causality might be motivated to call it the "Renew/Cancel Index Curse", but I think Madden Football's out of my league.
Law & Order's recent ratings improvement trend hit a pothole last Friday, when it sank back to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating. Is that temporary or a sign of things to come? If it can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) I think it's back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC's overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.
Trauma got an order for three more episodes. Sort of like a condemned man being given three more days to live. Mercy's ratings make it certain to be canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma.
Parks & Recreation has relatively perked up lately in the ratings, and the ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.
Beginning this week, for show’s in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
It will get at least one more season. This is NBC we’re talking about.
I love you #trauma.
That is all.
FIRST!
The Thursday block is starting to get good. Parks last week was pretty funny, as was Community.
will Chuck help or hurt Heroes in Jan? It has to do better than whatever is there now, and NBC is promoting Chuck everywhere, with some really good spots, too…Seems the Chuck fan base is excited. I used to watch Heroes after, but last season lost me. I think Heroes is played out…
no, third….
i just hope that if this season or the next is the end for Heroes they plan it that way so it can end with a sense of conclusion. That is all I ask for.
If they cancel it this year, i’ll doubt we’ll get a proper ending.
I’m pretty sure it’ll get at least a 13 episode final season next year, unless Comcast decides to go nuclear.
That would be unfortunate especially since this season has been pretty damn good imo.
No! Have mercy on Mercy!
I hope NBC doesn’t cancel it.
If they do, then they are getting rid of BOTH of their new medical dramas?
And does anybody know what the Mercy hiatus is about?
And also: why didn’t Mercy get an improving smiley? Last week they got #1 in their timeslot AND the second highest rating they’ve ever gotten (excluding the premiere.)
dom, those ratings you are referring to are total viewer ratings. The index uses the 18-49 Demo, the Demo is what networks use to base renewal and cancellations. So while Mercy “wins” it’s timeslot in total viewers, it barely beats Modern Family repeats at 8, and gets beat outright by The Middle in the demo. And no matter how it does against the other networks, NBC will not be using that comparison when it comes time to decide to cancel or renew Mercy. They will be looking at how well Mercy does in the 18-49 demo compared to the rest of their shows on their own network. Using that data, and excluding the Friday shows (because Friday’s are different) Mercy and Trauma are in a virtual dead heat for last place on NBC. As far as them canceling both medical series, don’t be surprised if they have another medical drama in development for next year to replace them both.
Maybe Heroes will end next season.
Its sad that Heroes went downhill from writing and ratings because it started really big and good
If nothing else, this season of HEROES offers hope for fans of FLASHFORWARD: if a storyline that went as far off the rails as HEROES did in seasons 2 and 3 can be salvaged (in what is a fairly decent season 4), the last few episodes of FF need not be fatal to what is an intriguing concept. Fingers crossed for both shows.
I wonder if Heroes will do any better at 9pm come January. I hope that Chuck get’s better ratings at 8 then Heroes is getting now. The ratings carnage at NBC has me worried when it comes to Chuck. On the plus side, if Chuck can pull the same ratings it was getting last year it would be considered a rock star on NBC at this point. Heroes fate is hard for me to judge, yes the ratings are going from bad to worse, but there are other factors when it comes to Heroes that benefit it. So who knows what NBC will end up doing with it.
Jordan, while I agree FF can improve in quality the comparison is apples to oranges. Heroes was a blockbuster for all of it’s 1st season, and it bled viewers for the next 2 seasons to the point that it’s now in danger of getting canceled after the 4th season (and I must admit, I almost gave up on Heroes last year, but this has been a much better season quality wise.) FF on the other hand had a blockbuster premiere and bled viewers within a few episodes and not over the course of 4 seasons. So unless FF can turn it around in the 2nd half of the season there will be no way ABC brings it back for another season.
Tommy, from a commercial point of view, I agree that FF’s sudden ratings descent cannot be compared to HEROES: the latter show clearly built up a lot of goodwill with its stellar first season ratings. FF doesn’t have that goodwill, and will surely fail to achieve a second season if its ratings don’t pick up soon.
But, purely from a writing perspective, if a storyline that had gone off the rails over the course of some twenty or thirty episodes can still be salvaged, there must be every chance of the FF writing team turning round the past six or so. As the pilot ratings show, FF does have an intriguing concept: if the writers can start to deliver a worthy show, I’m sure the viewers will flock black.
Thanks for the explanations, Tommy!
If NBC cancelled every show that wasnt doing good that would only leave them 2 or 3 shows next year!
So we all know Heroes is safe!
Cant help but wonder if that scene where Claire slits her wrist was telegraphing NBCs plans for the show.
Its time to end that train wreck and have the circus guy blow up the entire planet – KABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM !!! Now thats what I would call “going out with a bang”.
Exactly Rich. Heroes will be here through next season. The early ending to this season will give the writers time to come up with a satisfying conclusion for next season.
Also I think P and R and Community are safe based on steady viewership and quality.
I used to fight for Mercy..but I watched the next couple of episodes..and it’s terrible.