Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.56 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.79 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.82 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.88 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 0.89 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 0.91 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.29 |
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Melrose Place's addition of Heather Locklear to the cast failed to generate much of a ratings updraft. Now, the only thing to do is wait until May when we see it's not on next year's schedule. Fans, however, may wish to call upon divine intervention, because that's what it will take to save the show.
Note that Smallville, Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill have yet to air a repeat, while all other CW scripted shows have. Right now that puts them temporarily on the up side of the see-saw and the others on the down side, but things should even out once every show has a similar number of repeats into their averages which will happen in the next month or so. At the moment 90210, Melrose Place, Supernatural and Vampire Diaries are a bit lower in the Index than they should be for that reason.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
How can there only be one show above .93?
Even with VD repeats included in the index, VD is a monster compared to the rest of the lineup.
Don’t forget that America’s Next Top Model’s ratings are in CW’s average rating, but it’s not in the list above.
To Cullen: presumably because of ANTM which I believe is their #2 in 18-49.
wow, I wonder if Melrose Place will go below TBL.
Of course they have their new spin off!
Stargate Melrose Space!
Is 90210 in green because CW has NOTHING else to offer except for rich kids complaining about their lives? Also, Supernatural isn’t coming back for another season, or so Kripke says.
Am I the only one who thinks Melrose would go on for a good few seasons if it somehow managed to survive this one?
The rigid serialisation of Sidney’s murder has made it very difficult for viewers to return after missing an episode or two. A switch to a more self-contained format in season 2, coupled with DVD sales and reruns of season 1 to allow catch-up, and I think the CW could have a mainstay.
It’s not a bad show.
OMG no it cant be cancelled i love this show, come on people start watching!!!!
I’m so tired of The CW’s pathetic rich kid soaps… no one wants to watch this overhyped crap!! The ratings are telling that story. They should have more varied programming and forget this stupid idiocy. Dawn Ostroff must be removed immediately and they need to come up with a new startegy! Ostroff is running that poor netlet to the ground.
@Remus Wow!
Can the CW really nor renew Supernatural if the cast and crew are up for it, they dont have anough programs to fill an entire week as it is! They need to keep hold of veteran shows like SN, OTH and SV and start adding some new shows to the weekly line-up. As it is most of the shows are about to go on hiatus which means re-runs for god knows how many weeks! Ratings arent exactly great for origonal episodes let alone re-runs! This has got to be the worst organisation in TV history! Sort it out!
Melrose place isn’t a bad show, i’ll probably watch it till the end.
They should end this show where all of them are on a Party Bus rumbling down a mountain after a weekend ski trip and an earthquake strikes sending the Party Bus over the edge of the cliff, concluding with a large fireball. Luke Perry, dressed like Rod Serling stands looking down on the burning wreckage intoning “Well, looks like this group was obviously on a one way trip to Loserville.”
Kripke is signed for 5 years and has a 5 year arc planned out but he is not ruling out the possibility of a 6th year. He has stated that he has ideas for season six if they want to continue. Also the two leads are signed for one more year.
The diffusion of Melrose Place would be change to have better ratings! No TUESDAY , because there are NCIS: Los Angeles and Lost and American Idol soon !
I will sure that Melrose Place have the potencial to be a success because Heather Lockear’s addition and the new direction give a new chance !
I hope that Melrose Place will have a season 2 because it’s a veritable show!
Kathy is right – Kripke may not return for a 6th season but the two leads are under contract. Given the lack of another compatible show for Vampire Diaries I think a 6th season for Supernatural is a given.
It may be time to retire Smallville though… OTH still has another year left in it.
Th CW without the veterans (OTH, SN and SV) is NOTHING. Especially OTH deservs so much to be renew!!!
They need to move MP to Mon or Weds nights, yet another good show that will get the axe
OMG!!! I want supernatural with more seasons. I just love the show. CW doenst deserve to have this show because there is no kind of promotion!