In a Variety article which, as is typical, smooches up to the networks about how well they're doing, 4 new ABC shows are called "quasi-hits" (V, FlashForward, Cougar Town and The Middle). I guess calling them anything less might anger the potential Variety advertiser that is ABC.
Absent smooches, I think it's quite likely that one or more of those "quasi-hits" will fail to survive until next fall.
You can watch the same ratings trends I do in the ABC show Renew / Cancel Index posts, but here's my current guesses on all 4 shows.
1. FlashForward
With this adults 18-49 ratings trend (4.0, 3.7, 3.0, 3.1, 3.1, 2.7, 2.6, 2.6, 2.4) it's my odds on favorite in this group to fail to survive into season #2.
2. V
It fell sharply after its premiere, but the last two episodes tallied 3.1 adults 18-49 ratings. That's worthy of some hope. Now, it will be on an extended hiatus. It's ratings on return will tell the tale, the past ratings will be all but meaningless.
3. The Middle
Paired with the loser that was Hank, it looked like it might be a goner, but the ratings picked up when paired with even the repeat of a show people wanted to watch. It's chances for a second season are definitely better than even.
4. Cougar Town
It was a disservice to Cougar Town to put it in the same list with those other three shows. With its ratings to date, there is abolutely no chance it doesn't come back for a second season barring some non-ratings event.
I think all except for FlashForward have a good chance on coming back. V probably needs more data, but I think it will survive.
Cougar Town is back for sure. With V it is way too soon to call. I would guess FlashForward and The Middle do not come back, but The Middle’s fate may depend on how ABC’s development goes with comedies.
I think all the shows will get 2nd seasons. Flash Forward I think will pick up again. Right now it may be boring but Im sure ABC is gonna promote the hell out of it to try and save it. They did renew it for 12 more episodes.
Im also sure when V returns in March, it will start being promoted by February. Im sure ABC will promote the hell out of it like they did with its premiere.
I love The Middle but theres 2 problems. One is it will be up against American Idol and second is what will ABC put in the 8 o’clock timeslot that wont hurt it like Hank did? Are they gonna stick with repeats of Modern Family since Scrubs/Ted will be on Tuesdays at 9 for now and Romantically Challenged didnt even start taping their episodes. Hope it gets a 2nd season. ABC must have faith in the show if they renewed it after 2 episodes.
Cougar Town will definitely be getting a 2nd season. Its averaging like 3.2. Thats good enough for renewal.
Flash Forward is a great concept wtih decent plots, however, the lead character is just really annoying. I wish they had a different actor. It has stopped me from watching the show.
I think V, might be able to get a 2nd season order of 13 episodes.
I think that if The Middle were after Modern Family it would have better ratings than Cougar Town.
I think all will get a second season except Flash Forward.
Don’t understand how The Middle can keep an audience. It’s dreaful. V is good but since it’s on break I’m not holding much hope. Hard enough to grab an audience once, but twice in one season? Too much to expect.
FlashForward is going going going…I think gone. It’s a good idea but the show wasn’t thought out well enough and much of the cast are unlikeable. Should have pruned the cast size down and found people who we can get invested in.
My hope is that V will be able to pull though, it’s my fav of the lot. I would like it if FlashForward could rebound with some re-working but I just think it’s over as it sits.
Don’t really have an opinion on Cougar Town
I don’t see how FlasForward would make it… From 4.1 to 2.4? Quite pathetic. And the writers still didn’t get it yet, they’re still pulling out boring useless episodes after boring useless episodes. ABC should have changed the writers as soon as the show went under 3.0, now it’s to late and the show is done. It’s not even a fair fight
Samuel, you don’t quite get how TV works, do you? Episodes are written and filmed well ahead of airing. By the time the showrunner was changed, they already had through episode 10 in the can, I believe. And the showrunner was changed before the show ever went under 3.0.
Oh well , I like The Middle and V .
With my luck they both probably be canceled
The Middle looks like a cheap show to make, maybe this could save it
The comedies will make it. They are showing growth and they are not serialized, therefore, they can still build an audience. The dramas, V and FlashForward, are not going to make it. They started big which skews their current averagea high. FF is not catchng on and V’s 3 month hiatus cannot help. ABC did a 3 month hiatus to LOST a couple years ago to ratings that plummeted.
I think ABC will keep one of V or FlashForward, and V’s probably the more likely one at this point. V’s likely post-Lost slot is a death slot, though, and FlashForward is an ABC production, so you never know, but I’d still guess V stays and FlashForward goes.
Cougar Town is obviously staying. The Middle…hell, I think it’ll stay too after its recent ratings improvement. Scrubs and Better Off Ted got renewed last year after all (though I guess that’s probably more due to a lack of successful sitcoms on ABC at the time than anything else…)
FlashForward is most likely done. V I think wont survive the break and Cougar Town is a lock.
The Middle is a show that I think is 90% awful but I just keep watching it, the youngest kid I just find entertaining. If they kept the focus off of the rest of the cast in the future I think it would do better. I think it gets renewed unless some mid-season comedy takes off.
The Middle should definitely be placed after Modern Family. The family combo block is great and imagine what The Middle’s ratings would be after a new MF – probably better than Cougar Town’s. While that would be ideal, another possible scenario is to move The Middle to Mondays after Dancing in the old Sam Who slot, which I must say had ABC not cancel it, they would have had a solid two blocks of comedy (Sam Who/Cougar & Modern Fam/Middle).
I hope FlashForward goes. It’s a crappy show and I’m sick of hearing about it.
Wasn’t V supposed to be a limited series anyway? It should be done by fall either way, right? (Unless they’re doing something like airing 4 more episodes in March, then the last 5 in the fall?)
No, you’re wrong about that. It is a fullfledged series.
All four will be back.
I kind of hope the Middle gets a better spot and a renewal. It should do fine following Modern Family. But then what does ABC do with Cougar Town?
I’m not sure with the Middle, though, whether it is the show itself or simply Patricia Heaton that I like. She was always the hidden success Raymond (you know, offsetting the dreadful and totaly irritating Brad Garrett). The youngest kid is good but the husband is pretty bland. They might want to rethink that character.
What a shame FF has become. It started off good, and the Pilot was excellent. But ultimately, I think its a victim of bad casting, and plodding writing. Really, who decided Joseph Fiennes was the right guy for this? Miscast doesn’t even begin to cover it.