Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 29, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.21|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.26|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.80|
|American Dad (P)||0.96|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||1.14|
|The Simpsons (P)||1.19|
|Family Guy (P)||1.30|
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.5 vs. ~3.0 before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average declines post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
Some fans have suggested that with Lie To Me's modest ratings success after House, that it should be canceled instead of Fringe (or at the very least timeslot swapped with Fringe).
I doubt anything like that is being seriously considered at Fox. Lie To Me is produced by Fox, Fringe isn't. They slotted the shows where they are knowing the advantage it would give to Lie To Me, for good reason. Fox stands to make more from a successful Lie To Me than from a successful Fringe. Life isn't fair.
Although Fox would be "breaking the rules" of the Renew / Cancel Index if they brought Fringe back, they could very well decide to do so based on their expectations. I just have no idea what those expectations were. Neither do you. Neither do all those "scoopy" entertainment writers out there.
Dollhouse, Brothers and 'Til Death are all canceled, either in fact or in practice. Dollhouse fans will see all its episodes that were produced, that's the best the other two can hope for as well.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think it's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.