Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 29, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.68 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.71 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.75 |
| Community | 0.82 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.90 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.97 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.12 |
| The Office (P) | 1.53 |
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The deal between GE and Comcast to create a Comcast controlled subsidiary including NBC Universal is expected to be announced any day now. Well in advance of the deal there has been lots of chatter from both entertainment writers and commenters about "What's Comcast going to do?". Most is nonsense like "Jay Leno's off the air the next day!"
While the prospect that NBC cancels all but 3 shows in its current scripted line up (no comment on Chuck!), is very far fetched (I don't think the network has the bandwidth to replace that many shows from an organizational logistics perspective) it's a lot more rational than The Jay Leno Show going off the air before the start of next fall's season for exactly the same reason. There is no giant treasure trove of hit shows sitting unseen in some closet at NBC just waiting for the current dreck to be booted, or they would have done it already instead of ordering 3 more episodes of a loser like Trauma.
If Law & Order can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) I think it's back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC's overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.
Trauma got an order for three more episodes. Sort of like a condemned man being given three more days to live. Mercy's ratings make it certain to be canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma.
The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.
For show’s in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Wow. It’s crazy how far NBC has fallen in such a short timeframe.
If Parks doesn’t return for a third season I may have to cry a little.
I’m really counting on that “buzz” to come through!
They’ve got no choice but to keep all the comedies, cancel the rest, and keep the greens. Heroes is a possible stay.
L&O getting another season for the record books is a lock. That season airing on NBC, as opposed to TNT, now seems ever more likely.
SVU has an absurd cost per episode. If NBC’s schedule didn’t completely suck, there would be doubts as to its survival.
Hell, at this point P&R and Community could lead off Wednesday nights next year. It all depends on development.
While it’s unlikely NBC will cancel all but 3 shows, I would say a bold move like that is something that could get NBC out of the trouble it’s in. NBC needs to generate some major positive buzz, they got buzz with the Leno move, but that was far from positive. I creative shift with a lot of shows in development might get them the attention that the desperately need.
I watched Mercy, and as much as I love MT, it has to be the must boring, pointless, piece of crap I’ve ever watched.
Well, being I hardly watch NBC, except for a football game or maybe catch a Law and Order, my guess is NBC will turn into a waste land of reality tv and talk shows. I just can’t see this working out for them if they insist on demanding network-based advertising dollars for Grade “C” material. Like CNN, you can’t demand top dollar for a poor product and ratings.
On the other hand, with the salaries actors and news commentators are demanding to do television, you had to figure the gravy train was coming to an end.
What happened the to the NBC? After Friends and Frasier left, the network has seen a sharp decline in tv hits. There problems lie is sorry programming that only targets one specific audience and the fact that they can’t attract people to their shows.
They need a complete fresh start like ABC did in 2004 with Lost and Desperate Housewives. The Office isn’t the perfect example of a top network show. So NBC execs, you need to find some solid fresh hits to improve performance….and Leno doesn’t count!
Don’t worry. It’s CHUCK to the rescue in January!! He’ll save NBC and Comcast to boot.
Heroes, I think, is dead. While the ratings are decent (for NBC), canning Heroes is a good signal to viewers that the new NBC means business.
Mercy will get another season. NBC needs a medical drama and Mercy is it. Trauma is dead.
Chuck will come back unless it bombs out in ratings.
Thursday shows are safe.
L&O and/or SVU – Only 1 will come back.
LOL. Chuck will fail.
Why the heck did they dump Medium?
’30 Rock” is “likely to be renewed for the 2010-11 season” WHY?! This show has come in 3rd or last in its timeslot for years, yet their Hollywood “brethern” keep heaping awards on this show ignoring the fact that NO ONE IS WATCHING! NBC keeps trying to shove this show down viewers throats but viewers, by not watching, are telling NBC that ’30 Rock” is not funny and not a good show worthy of being on in prime time and telling NBC to “shove
Let’s face it; ’30 Rock” is crap. Cancel it already and move on! These NBC execs make the “big bucks”? WHY?!
Though, the only reason Mercy and Community/P&R come back is because NBC has nothing to replace it with and can’t start the fall 2010 season out with so little veteran shows.
Right now I think Heroes has a shot for at least a half season renewal if for no other reason than it is unusual for a network to cancel all shows on a given night and try to launch a whole new night (ABC Wednesdays being an exception). Of course this depends on whether ratings drop further or hold on.
Community looking like another Earl, it’s not produced by NBC so P&R looks better because of that. But if NBC doesn’t have any new comedies for the fall, then it could hang on to all 4 assuming it wants to leave a 2 hour comedy block on Thursdays. Right now with all their other issues and the relatively cheap cost of the shows, I doubt that both Community and P&R would be cancelled.
I’m gonna say Law & Order, Community, and Parks all get renewed. Maybe Heroes for a short 13-ep season.
And if Chuck is passable I could see it back again as a midseason replacement or maybe on Fridays (I hope not). Trauma and Mercy are obviously goners.
NBC needs to get rid of Leno and set up a tentative schedule w/ a bunch of Datelines and a BL spin-off while they get their act together. Maybe America’s Got Talent in the Fall would be a good idea?
30 Rock is hilarious.
… When I say “I hope not” I mean I hope Chuck’s not on Fridays, not that I hope it’s not renewed at all. I LOVE that show.
@mike,
I think it is unlikely that all 4 of the Thursday comedies get renewed. Chances are NBC will want to try to launch at least one new show, which means one current show has to go.
I do think L&O’s chances are pretty good though.
As it’s been stated here before, Leno is not going anywhere. He did a smart thing and locked NBC into a 2-year contract with his show.
Is there any news on how NBC’s midseason is shaping up? I know we speculated a while back that Parenthood was in trouble due to the recent recasting of Maura Tierney’s role Any word on that or any of their other planned shows?