Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 29, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.54|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.75|
|Law & Order: SVU (P)||0.97|
|30 Rock (P)||1.12|
|The Office (P)||1.53|
The deal between GE and Comcast to create a Comcast controlled subsidiary including NBC Universal is expected to be announced any day now. Well in advance of the deal there has been lots of chatter from both entertainment writers and commenters about "What's Comcast going to do?". Most is nonsense like "Jay Leno's off the air the next day!"
While the prospect that NBC cancels all but 3 shows in its current scripted line up (no comment on Chuck!), is very far fetched (I don't think the network has the bandwidth to replace that many shows from an organizational logistics perspective) it's a lot more rational than The Jay Leno Show going off the air before the start of next fall's season for exactly the same reason. There is no giant treasure trove of hit shows sitting unseen in some closet at NBC just waiting for the current dreck to be booted, or they would have done it already instead of ordering 3 more episodes of a loser like Trauma.
If Law & Order can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) I think it's back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC's overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.
Trauma got an order for three more episodes. Sort of like a condemned man being given three more days to live. Mercy's ratings make it certain to be canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma.
The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.
For show’s in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.