Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 29, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.58 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.81 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.89 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.90 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 0.91 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 0.99 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.40 |
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Although fan blindness is so severe at times, I wonder why I try to get in front of it, the headline of the post is for Melrose Place fans who fail to recognize that:
1. I do one Renew / Cancel post per broadcast network, per week.
2. Melrose Place is the only scripted show currently on the CW likely to be canceled at the end of this season.
3. Headlining these posts with any of the other shows that seem certain to be renewed is likely to be slumber inducing. Although I did that, twice.
Note that Supernatural, Vampire Diaries and Smallville appeared in their regular timeslots in the past week, but were designated “specials” by the CW, so those episodes are not included in any season averages. That’s a somewhat arbitrary distinction, but since its the convention, I am following it.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Yeah, yeah. The show is toast.
Ooh, MP’s necessary cancellation will be a good irrationality test of Ostroff.
They should yank Melrose and replace it with Legend of the Seeker, which also airs on CW affiliates.
idiotic headline again by what appears to be a child (or cyber geek) running this site.
People who started saying (inc myself) on other pages that your headlines are bitchy and snarky are not blind, obsessed fans, but i guess its easier for you to insult the people who come on your site rather than stop been a child about it and tone your bitchy posts/headlines down.
Im a fan of MP (though prefer a bit of Sons Of Anarchy myself) and i will be gutted when MP gets the axe, and it will get the axe, nobody is having a go because we believe MP will survive, people are saying that your constant digs are very perez hilton, only he does them far better, and hes an idiot
I love the titles.
I would, on a site which was a bitchy gossip site, but i kinda come on here just to check out how the shows are doing. The renew/cancel index is a joke anyway but the headlines are silly, far to much glee and excitment about failing shows for people who i would have thought loved TV. But hey, as long as it gives you boys something to do lol
Thing is, it’s putting people out of jobs, and people get joy from that for some reason, I just hope they lose theirs in return.
Craig, if you were only wondering about the ratings, there are plenty of other sources for that…
You sure you don’t like to come to this site because its so awesome?
You guys do realize that Robert and Bill have no power to cause anyone to lose their jobs, right? And canceled shows that employ hundreds of people are replaced by new shows that employ hundreds of people (and with the crew, it could be some of the same people). With the exception of a Leno-style move by the nets, the number of jobs stays pretty even.
John, for every trashy soap writing job that is lost, another will spring up.
Until the entire CW network goes under, that is.
Oh and this list deals with shows, not the jobs behind them. No one is happy that all the Melrose Place writers will lose their Melrose Place jobs at the end of the season. That’s not what this is about.
New bingo square:
The network (and all the haters out there) wanted everyone associated with the show to lose their jobs!
People, even those who might consider themselves to be serious, unless you’re reading stock pages or whatever, follow the personality. As listed to the right are many sites who give ratings figures. You come here, just like I do, because of the personality of the site.
Secondly, if you read all the articles you’d realise this was a tongue in cheek dig at all the anti-my show comments people have been making.
A) Networks don’t program dead air. If show A stumbles, it just means people (possibly the same ones) get jobs on show B.
B) You have a ludicrously absurd view of the TV industry if you think Dawn Ostroff surfing the web, coming across these numbers, and then saying to herself “Wait, the ratings are really this bad? I better cancel this show!” is the reason MP is now doomed.
Aunt Becky hitting kids with a belt makes for great TV on 90210. Forget Melrose Place its not 1995 anymore.
LOLZ!! Hey — go pick on some Dollhouse fans, Bill!!
I don’t understand this “specials” business. They were repeats, and advertised as such.
Funny. “Melrose Place” is doing about as well as “Fringe.” Don’t watch either show because they both suck. Just thought the difference in treatment between them was interesting…
The 2 shows that this site picks on the most are Melrose Place and Flash Forward. Melrose Place isnt that bad and I dont know why people wont give it a chance.
Poor Heather Locklear use to bring in big ratings and now she cant. During 90210, there were 2 promos about Amanda being back and still looks like 90210 fans arent that interested.
AK, Funny, you seemed to have forgotten to read the part of the Fox post about their Index numbers post-World Series. If I used the pre-World Series Fox average, Fringe’s Index would be 0.73.
Just thought the difference in your reading of the two posts was interesting…
I hope Life UneXpected fares better when it premieres next year