Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 29, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.39 |
| Hank | 0.54* |
| Eastwick | 0.60 |
| the forgotten | 0.65 |
| The Middle | 0.69 |
| Castle (P) |  0.77 |
| FlashForward (P) |  0.97 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.00 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.04 |
| Modern Family | 1.14 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.20 |
| V | 1.23 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.52 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.77 |
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Ugly Betty will be moving to Wednesday at 10pm beginning January 6. Short of a ratings miracle, which I have no reason to expect, there is no chance this does anything but change its final timeslot before cancellation at the end of this season.
The move speaks to me more about ABC's lack of confidence in their mid-season shows than any faith in Betty, if they think that Betty can do better at 10pm Wednesday than what they have on the bench. Note: while Ugly Betty's episode last week did air in its regular timeslot it was designated a "special" by ABC, so is not included in any season averages. That's a somewhat arbitrary distinction, but since its the convention, I am following it.
Three shows continue to be in some danger of cancellation by ABC by the end of this season, but they're moving in different direction. The Middle, now freed of the Hank albatross, has reason to hope for better ratings in the future. Castle ratings have trended upwards since the start of the season, and the trend should provide hope to fans. On the flipside, FlashForward ratings continue to deteriorate. After starting strong, it's below ABC's average over the past 4 weeks prior to Thanksgiving and it hit a series low on November 22.
the forgotten, has an order for additional episodes, but hit a series low rating last night, and there is virtually no chance it returns in fall 2010. Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since Eastwick may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze it's Index yet. *Hank's Index is frozen at the point it was removed from ABC's schedule.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Wednesdays are better than Fridays. It’ll be interesting to see if it helps even a little.
What is with all the “Betty” hate on this site?
Still no freeze for Hank? I can’t see ABC airing the rest of the episodes anytime soon.
thats good, I still am gonna be skipping it, its lost me last year, but for the sake of the show and its fans I hope it survives, good to see ABC cares for this show a little, Now if they only saved October Road, then I’d watch they’re station again.
It will help Ugly Betty a little bit, but wont save it from being cancelled. However putting a veteran drama (especially one with a lot of comedy aspects) at 10 Wed after 4 comedies is still better than airing a new drama. Shouldnt Hank be crossed out, theres virtually no chance that it will return, unless ABC does some Xmas burn off. Though axed Eastwick will continue with originals until December 16, then its summer burn off amd Forgotten will run through its remaining 9 eps, then be forgotten by ABC in March. Bubble series Castle has a better chance at renewal, while Flashforward has a worse chance, and ABC’s comedy trio is safe despite The Middle being bubbleish.
Terrence – Theres no Betty hate, its being realistic. No one hates the quality of the show or the show itself, but realitically the show has run out fo steam.
Brad – Yeah I agree, freeze Hank, he’s done.
Terrence here is a simple three step program to help you understand:
step 1: repeat after me, “this is TV by the NUMBERS”
step 2: look at where Betty’s numbers rank it in the table above (LAST!)
step 3: go to step 1
you were also plotting the demise of CASTLE.
There’s no need to be this nasty. There are lots of people that work on this show. You dont need to put a nasty headline like this, it’snot gonna increase trafiic. People, like you said just come here for numbers, not nasty snark.
Aside from Hank being dead, didn’t Grammer take a role on Broadway? There is zero chance of it coming back. They do still have 5 (?) unaired episodes that’ll probably show up in the Summer (if ever).
ted are you serious?
As while Eastwick is canceled as well, I do think ABC will air the last 3 episodes. I don’t see them doing that much for Hank.
Oh come on! What’s wrong with you people!? There’s no Betty hate on this site and the headline isn’t nasty, it’s the TRUTH!
I used to watch Ugly Betty. I’m not sure why I stopped because it was very good a few years back. Either way, it’s nice to see you guys hating on something other than Melrose Place for a change, but I do have to agree that the headlines and articles on this site come across extremely bitter. For people who come to this website to see how their favorite shows are doing, it’s a slap in the face and a knee to the groin. It’s bad enough feeling powerless as a viewer who has zero control, but it feels even worse to have websites like this rub it in and talk trash. I said it before and I’ll say it again … there’s a demented glee you guys take in reporting on the failing TV shows.
Brad – I doubt we’ll ever see Hank’s remaining eps. The way comedies go with ABC is that if they are axed during the reular TV season with extra eps, they dont return in the summer. Samantha Who returned but thats because it did well once and was axed because of high production costs. Shows like In the Motherhood and The Knights of Prosperity briefly returned to summer but were pulled due to low ratings. However Eastwick, as a drama is more expensive to produce, which is why ABC feels the need to burn off the remaining eps. They did that last year with Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money and even Cupid and The Unusuals. Every drama that aired on ABC the past few seasons, has atleast aired all episodes. If Samantha Who was renewed, that would have been perfect to air at 8:00 as a lead in to the comedy block instead of Hank. Hank was awful but its gone now and everyone can enjoy the rest of ABC’s comedies.
Just to make it clear- Wednesday’s episodes doesn’t count as specials,even though they were right before Thanksgiving, right?
Thanks for the History:
Why are some shows on both lists? I know Jericho was started after cancellation but you also have Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money
Stuff I liked that got cancelled…
Posted on 27 August 2008
LIFE IS WILD CW 0.36
CANTERBURY’S LAW FOX 0.43
JERICHO CBS 0.73
LAS VEGAS NBC 0.80
ELI STONE ABC 0.86
DIRTY SEXY MONEY ABC 0.92
Posted on 27 May 2009
JERICHO CW 0.38
TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES FOX 0.47
KINGS NBC 0.53
ELI STONE ABC 0.64
UNUSUALS, THE ABC 0.64
DIRTY SEXY MONEY ABC 0.72
LIFE (WED) NBC 0.73
LIFE ON MARS ABC 0.83
SAMANTHA WHO? ABC 0.91
KATH & KIM NBC 0.93
WORST WEEK CBS 1.01
MY NAME IS EARL NBC 1.07
REAPER CW 1.15
Ok course of all of these shows my wife only watched Dirty Sexy Money and Kath and Kim!
Hmmmm that is a lot more shows than I watch now! I must have really bad taste. No wonder they keep canceling stuff that I like
The ones I really like were Jericho and TSCC for the Story although I thought the acting was bad and Life which was probably one of my favourite shows!
Theres no hate for Ugly Betty, Dollhouse, Trauma, Three Rivers. Its just realistically in terms of whether these series will be renewed. The logical answer is no. Arrested Development was one of the best series on the air by critics but after airing on mondays for a few eps it was as good as dead.
I like the headlines. For a mostly otherwise boring (to me) piece, I don’t mind them. This is coming from a fan of Dollhouse who got ‘em weekly.
I will admit the headlines are kinda humorous in a mean way (lol), but they can be frustrating from a fan’s point of view.
This site is good, in that it provides a structured chart that shows people the realistic chances that their shows have of returning. Shows somtimes beat the odds and return other than means of numbers and things can change from now until May but for now this is a pretty good idea of which series will return and which will not.