Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through November 29, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) |  0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55* |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.61 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.61 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.67 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.92 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.98 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.07 |
| The Mentalist | 1.09 |
| CSI (P) | 1.11 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.14 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.11 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.20 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.36 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.41 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.51 |
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CBS is again shaping up as the network with the most shows on "the bubble" that will keep fans worrying until the last moment in May when the new schedules are announced. At least five shows (Numb3rs, Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, The Good Wife, Accidentally on Purpose) are in some doubt for next season, although within that group the individual prospects vary widely. Nail-biters may wish to invest in gloves.
*Three Rivers is off CBS' schedule and as close to canceled as you're likely to get from CBS. Its Index is frozen at the point of the last week it aired, since it has no announced return date.
Accidentally On Purpose's good timeslot following How I Met Your Mother makes its borderline Index look weaker than it would be were it elsewhere on the CBS schedule. Its prospects for next year are not bright.
In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It's now in significant danger of not coming back.
The Good Wife ratings seem to be settling just on the edge of the danger zone for cancellation. On NBC, it would be a star, on CBS it's borderline.
New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried ratings remain horrid, they were last season too. If CBS is determined to weather their terrible ratings to establish another night of comedy they may be renewed for yet another season.
Update: Medium, Numb3rs, Ghost Whisperer, CSI and The Mentalist appeared in their regular timeslots in the past week, but were designated "specials" by CBS, , so they are not included in any season averages. That’s a somewhat arbitrary distinction, but since its the convention, I am following it.
Beginning this week, for shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Without a doubt Gary is starting to turn into the funniest sitcom right now. Gary never had a boost b/c if it did it would be the next Two and a Half Men. The fact that Gary has made it through two seasons should warrant four seasons at least as this show was predicted to not outlast Worst Week last year.
Numb3rs & Accidentally aren’t on the bubble, they are de-facto canceled. Seriously, what was the last CBS Fall show that didn’t get a 22-episode order and came back the next year?
Gary & Christine are dependent on factors outside the index, namely whether CBS decides to go for the comedy block again.
The Good Wife is the only real bubble show on CBS’s schedule, in that only the ratings will determine its fate. Personally, given CBS’s troubles on Sunday, I think it is highly likely to come back there – not to mention CBS will need a weekday timeslot for Criminal Minds 2.
I don’t like Numbers’ chances. TNT switched it to Tuesday night at midnight.
Gary is turning into the funniest sitcom??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Gary Unmarried would only be the funniest sitcom if it was one of only 2 sitcoms on the air (with Christine being the other one)
Maybe it’s because they have the most shows?
They also have the least shows on the bubble.
12 shows most likely to not be cancelled, and 6 that might be.
Three Rivers has finally been pulled, if it does return it will be on saturdays to burn off its 5 eps. Cold Case and Numb3rs are done after May and Numb3rs looks to be running out of itself by February. The Good Wife looks good for renewal and with Numb3rs vacating, CBS can test the series Fridays at 10 and if it holds up well they can air that trio Fridays 2010-2011. Speaking of that Ghos Whisperer and Medium are in no danger. As for the comedies, my guess is that Accidentally on Purpose will be this year’s Worst Week or 06-07′s The Class. Holding up airing after HIMYM but Rules is waiitng in the wings to perform better. And a 18 episode order for a comedy is just like saying your good enough to keep around but youll probably be replaced soon. As for Old Christine and Gary Unmarried, Gary has built on Christine and has held up well. The retooling has helped the comedy so I hope CBS sticks with this one. With Christine, I love the series but numbers arent improving and maybe its time for CBS to let the 5 year old comedy go so ABC can grab it. My guess for comedies next season is CBS’s mondays the same with a new comedy replacing AOP, and hopefully Rules of Engagement airing at 8 followed by Gary.
I think CBS will stick with the comedy block. Heres some suggestions for 2010-2011.
1. Since Numb3rs is basically done, move The Good Wife to Fridays at 10 for a nice female oriented night.
2. Move well rated The Mentalist to Sundays at 9 so you have a strong drama to compete against Football, Desperate Housewives, Family Guy.
3. Keep the second night of comedy, its holding up and its good to have 2 nights. Also If Rules gets renewed, air it in the fall on Wednesdays at 8 so theres 2 established veterans on the night.
4. Air 3 new dramas at 10pm Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays after high rated series to see how they do.
5. Develop a good and potentially long lasting comedy for mondays.
If any of you remember correctly, The Big Bang Theory was doing around the same as Accidentally on Purpose this season, in it’s first.
Originally forgot to include this text in the post, it has now been added.
Medium, Numb3rs, Ghost Whisperer, CSI and The Mentalist appeared in their regular timeslots in the past week, but were designated “specials” by CBS, , so they are not included in any season averages. That’s a somewhat arbitrary distinction, but since its the convention, I am following it.
True but the strike interuppted that season and CBS didnt have 6 comedies crowding the schedule with another waiting in the wings. That season they just had HIMYM, TAAHM, TBBT and Rules on mondays, so Bang got a full season but ironically Bang only ended up with 17. Big Bang built on Mother and both averaged the same. That year CBS was lucky because they didnt use a second night of comedy. And thy were able to balance the 10 midseason eps of Old Christine and 5 of Captain repalcing Big Bang and Rules reruns. This year was the same as last with Old Christine and Gary on Wed and a new series airing on Mondays. Instead of that series airing post Men, its airing post Mother. The retention of Purpose out of Mother is better than Worst Week out of Men. Plus Purpose is a cheap multi cam so CBS ordered 18 eps to balance it out with Rules of Engagement. Rules will replace AOP and honestly will do better airing out of HIMYM so in turn its likely CBS will pull the plug on Purpose. No comedy is doing horrible this year, retention wise and the only 3 that I can say will be coming back for sure is Two and a Half Men, How I Met Your Mother and The Big Bang Theory. Those 3 will stay on mondays for next season with a new comedy liekly filling out the night. Between the 4 bubble comedies 2 will likely be renewed to air on Wed (I doubt Rules will be held again until Midseason). So CBS will likely gamble on 2 to bring back. My guess is Rules and Gary. Just because Old Christine is a veteran that isnt improving, CBS may drop it and CBS may decide to dump AOP just because its a moderately rated sitcom.
Dan, it didn’t. It often feel below 3.0
i think they should keep AOP its a really good show
Looks like Numbers cannot avoid it this season, it will be cancelled because it doesn’t have The Unit to hide behind.
Only Old Christine and Good Wife will be back next year.
@J.G. there’s no way NAOOC will avoid the chop this year.
- Cold Case just got a new huge syndication deal. That might help, but I doubt it. CBS knows they can get the same numbers with a new show and it would cost a lot less.
- Gary Unmarried has been one of the top comedies this season. I really hope the show comes back. FOX made the mistake of axing his first show Action which could’ve been Entourage before Entourage, and while I don’t see breakout potential for this show, it’s ratings have remained steady showing people like what they are seeing.
- The Good Wife is a really good show as well, but it’s problem is its identity. Who is it targeted for? Women? If so, there’s clearly not enough scandals going on (at least in the present day), and if it’s men, or just general fans of a legal show, I don’t think they want to tune into a show with a female lawyer as the star, even if Margulies is doing a stellar job this year.
Cold Case getting a new syndie deal could warrant an extra season but I don’t see it being around unless it moves towards the weekend.
I definitely agree that Gary Unmarried is one of the funniest sitcoms on TV right now. People sleep on this show because of its timeslot but it could emerge in the future.
NUMB3RS is pretty much done but I also think Medium should be done too as its being overlooked right now that it destroyed that Friday lineup. I don’t care what you guys say in response to that because I know its true.
CBS has funnier pilots than Accidentally on Purpose that they’ve yet to greenlight, they can do better they aren’t the terrible ABC.
At the end of the day CBS has to make some bigtime space as they have a number of new shows coming in the fall next year so some stuff is on the bubble.