In both the entertainment media and in comments on our site there have been hopes expressed that Comcast will "fix" the problems with NBC's primetime line up in a white knight riding in to save the day sort of way (although they won't be vanquishing the "black knight" Jeff Zucker, they kept him in charge of the business for at least the next year or so).
I remarked in our comments that NBC's primetime line up was far more important to fans than it's likely to be to Comcast. Why?
NBC's broadcast business is a tiny part of the new company, and NBC's primetime is only a portion of that. The Wall Street Journal estimates NBC's broadcast operations are just 5.1% of the revenue of the new Comcast.
I'm not sure what portion of that 5.1% is NBC primetime revenues, but even if it's 60%, that means NBC primetime revenues are just 3% of the new company's revenues.
How much of the new Comcast's attention do you think will be spent on something generating 3% of its revenues?
Likely far less than most fans hoping for the white knight treatment.
Well, to be fair I think it’s probably higher than 3% and again I think this whole % business is a bit overblown honestly (Re Ugly Betty going up 33% – sure that’s technically correct but the implication that it is some huge rise/increase is pretty flawed as it’s going from 0.9 to 1.2 both terrible numbers, and rates that it would be cancelled at). 3-5% of millions/billions of dollars is still worth worrying about – especially as Comcast is a huge company that’s not particularly diversified. Now what I do agree with you is that Comcast won’t be running around flipping up the schedule, firing people and greenlighting 10 new shows. They will likely keep Leno 3 nights a week (or more) and greenlight a few more shows than the last few years (while still trying to keep costs down with more “efficient” run shows like Friday Night Lights etc). It’s not that they DON’T CARE about the schedule, it’s that they are sensible business people, not mad “ratings” fans that think that ratings are the ONLY thing that is important in running a network. I mean it’s not like NBC is necessarily happy being in fourth place, but barring a miracle it’s where they will stay for the next 5 years at least. Being profitable and having a good return on investment is more important than the bragging rights of being number 1 to any good business person.
That analysis is short sighted. NBC will be the promotional platform for all things Comcast. It will one day move back into first place in ratings and then it will be worth far more to Comcast.
NBC primetime is a small piece of the overall revenue picture but it holds strategic value for Comcast and it’s in their best interest to focus on improving NBC’s primetime standing.
Because while NBC primetime generates very little revenue up front it is primetime shows that keep most of the successful cable channels in business. Where would TNT be today if they hadn’t bought rights to Law and Order? How much success does USA owe to NCIS? And so on…
Comcast lives or dies by the success of cable and once it owns NBC the company will be making even more money if it can use NBC/Universal properties on its cable stations.
So it is in Comcast’s interest to develop quality scripted shows for primetime. Moreover the fact that primetime shows don’t generate much revenue makes the situation even better because it means Comcast can use NBC as an R&D venue and experiment with different types of shows without risking too much.
primetime is when most veiwers are reached so wouldn’t it be smart to back up to help promote all things comcast and other stuff, i never got the point of all the GE commercials on NBC though, they’re not hoping to sell airplane engines to the 18-34 year olds watching the office
I think The Office, The Biggest Loser, and maybe Law & Order SVU are the only programs guaranteed to make it through a Comcast primetime makeover. Why? They’re the highest rated. It’s all about the money people.
“wouldn’t it be smart to back up to help promote all things comcast and other stuff”
In a word, no. If you actually look at that chart, 77% of Comcast’s revenue comes from business operations in which they effectively hold regional monopolies. There’s not much point in advertising Comcast cable ON Comcast cable, in markets where Comcast cable is essentially the only cable available.
Sheinhardt Universal (or “NBC,” if you prefer) has a number of profitable cable channels, and one floundering flagship broadcast network. What part of NBC Universal do you really think Comcast is interested in? Not the profitable small bits? No?
It so happens that I can see Comcast Center if I lean out a little from my living room window. It’s the biggest building in my city! The idea that NBC primetime is going to serve as some sort of farm league for USA, SyFy and Bravo is as delusional as thinking Comcast is going to magically lower the crime rate in Philadelphia. I won’t be surprised if NBC (the broadcast network) gets smaller because of this, rather than bigger.
NBC’s prime time will punch above its weight because it will be Comcast’s prestige operation, but that won’t take it above looking like it’s worth more than, say, 10% of operations.
You’re assuming that Comcast can’t multitask.
As someone said, 3-5% of a multimillion dollar organization is a pretty big deal, especially when that segment has clear growth potential. NBC was once on top of Primetime, and if Comcast can bring NBC primetime back within a few years, it will have meant they bought the company at a bargain. NBC Primetime is also vital to the public image and marketing potential of the company.
That’s not to say that things’ll happen fast. Little is going to change before the merger is complete, and even then, it’ll take some time for Comcast to situate itself within their new organization. And they can’t change too much too quickly without alienating viewers. But have no doubt that fixing NBC Primetime will rank high on their priorities.
“If you actually look at that chart, 77% of Comcast’s revenue comes from business operations in which they effectively hold regional monopolies. There’s not much point in advertising Comcast cable ON Comcast cable, in markets where Comcast cable is essentially the only cable available.”
You’re assuming that Comcast is a static entity, and not one which is desperately trying to expand its core business. Comcast doesn’t want NBC to further what Comcast is already doing, but because of what they want to do in the future.
“In a word, no. If you actually look at that chart, 77% of Comcast’s revenue comes from business operations in which they effectively hold regional monopolies. There’s not much point in advertising Comcast cable ON Comcast cable, in markets where Comcast cable is essentially the only cable available.”
That would be true if it weren’t for Satellite and Phone companies looking for growth in the TV business. Or for that matter if Comcast wasn’t looking for growth in the phone and internet business.
The reality of the world we live in is that Phone and Cable companies have grown about as much as they can with their existing monopolies and are now headed straight for a confrontation. So owning one of the local networks isn’t the worst thing in the world.
(For that matter having a competitor who has to funnel money back into your company because you own the cable channels they need to offer isn’t bad either)
Yeah I agree BDL they want to try and turn NBC around as much as they can – I mean I don’t think it will necessarily be there no. 1 priority but it’s definitely a place they can see “growth” potential even if the industry is declining. I mean it fits into the old adage “you’ll see the greatest gains in the areas you are weakest in for the time you spend vs areas you are strong already”. That’s why Murdoch/others didn’t want to buy the NBC cable channels as they felt like there wasn’t a lot of EXTRA profit they could make from them (eg they would be priced at a level that took into account they were profitable entities and they would have no room for growth).
Given that NBC has the same potential audience (or very close) as FOX, CBS, and ABC. Comcast would certainly see that NBC has alot of room for improvement and alot of potential to improve their bottom line. The issue is how much thay are willing to spend…
Personally, I think Comcast will wait and see a couple of years before they decide if NBC as a broadcast network is viable. But, what happens if one or two of NBC’s programs become a hit? What happens to NBC Nightly News if NBC goes off the air? What happens if there’s a terrorist attack and NBC won’t be covering it? What happens to NBC if Comcast decides to convert it into a cable channel? These are legitimate questions. New York Times writer Brian Stelter addressed some of these issues in his article, “NBC-Comcast Deal Puts Broadcast TV in Doubt.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/07/business/media/07nbc.html
Thank you for cutting down my article. I mean that sincerely. It was just too long. Julia, what does Nick C think of the whole NBC Comcast merger? Could you ask him to share some of his insights into the merger and what it means for NBC? Please!
I’m not his mouthpiece. I honestly have never spoken to him about this sort of thing.
Okay.
Parenthood, if you’re interested in what Nick C thinks, ask him directly. No need to keep asking here.
Here’s also another thing to think about. FCC might force Comcast to sell some of NBC’s assets like the broadcast network.
Truth is, we really don’t know yet what’s going to happen with federal regulators. There are going to be some hearings on the merger. I hope this site will make mention them.
As I said previously I’ve seen nothing that gives me the impression that Comcast are all that interested in NBC period, let alone specifically the prime time schedule. My read on the situation is that they’ll continue the current Zucker philosophy when it comes to NBC and manage for the bottom line, as long as NBC isn’t losing them money (or at least not vast sums of it) then I don’t think they’re really going to care how or if its performing. People who want a magic turn around at NBC should be focusing their attention on Gaspin and not on this Comcast deal.
Even when you look long term at the potential ‘promotional platform’ there’s no pressing need to ‘fix’ NBC or more specifically the prime time schedule. The shift to cable is becoming increasingly pronounced my guess would be that Comcast will want to push the shift along, which will likely mean they’ll be focusing much more attention (and investment) on USA and the other cable networks than they do NBC. I think ultimately what’s going to happen is that USA will become the test model for whether a ‘major network’ schedule does work on cable or not, which means bigger investment in USA’s daytime schedule.
But with all that said I still think the major immediate priority for Comcast will be on demand services.
Wow, thanks for that chart….it really opened my eyes!