Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 6, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.21|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.26|
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.5 vs. ~3.0 before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average declines post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
All season long,fans have bemoaned its ultra-competitive timeslot. "If it was only on without so much competition, it would do so much better!" they cry. Last week, free of 's and a new , jumped to a 2.5 adults 18-49 , its best since the season premiere. "Told you!" cried the fans.
But will it matter?
If not Thursday at 9pm, where doesgo? Sunday night's out. Friday's a dead zone. It's not going to follow House on Monday. No chance Fox messes with on Wednesday. Tuesday night seems to be the only possibility, if Fox decided not to bring back next fall, but that seems a long shot.
Or they could just let it keep getting pummeled on Thursday at 9pm.
Although Fox would be "breaking the rules" of the Renew / Cancel Index if they brought Fringe back, they could very well decide to do so based on their expectations. I just have no idea what those expectations were. Neither do you. Neither do all those "scoopy" entertainment writers out there.
Dollhouse, Brothers and 'Til Death are all canceled, either in fact or in practice. Dollhouse fans will see all its episodes that were produced, that's the best the other two can hope for as well.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think it's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.