Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 6, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.21 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.25 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.26 |
| Fringe |  0.62 |
| Bones (P) | 0.80 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.80 |
| Glee (P) | 0.91 |
| American Dad (P) | 0.91 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.14 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.19 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.24 |
| House | 1.51 |
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Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.5 vs. ~3.0 before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average declines post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
All season long, Fringe fans have bemoaned its ultra-competitive timeslot. "If it was only on without so much competition, it would do so much better!" they cry. Last week, free of Grey's Anatomy and a new CSI, Fringe jumped to a 2.5 adults 18-49 rating, its best since the season premiere. "Told you!" cried the fans.
But will it matter?
If not Thursday at 9pm, where does Fringe go? Sunday night's out. Friday's a dead zone. It's not going to follow House on Monday. No chance Fox messes with Glee on Wednesday. Tuesday night seems to be the only possibility, if Fox decided not to bring back So You Think You Can Dance next fall, but that seems a long shot.
Or they could just let it keep getting pummeled on Thursday at 9pm.
Although Fox would be "breaking the rules" of the Renew / Cancel Index if they brought Fringe back, they could very well decide to do so based on their expectations. I just have no idea what those expectations were. Neither do you. Neither do all those "scoopy" entertainment writers out there.
Dollhouse, Brothers and 'Til Death are all canceled, either in fact or in practice. Dollhouse fans will see all its episodes that were produced, that's the best the other two can hope for as well.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think it's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I have no doubt that Fringe will be back next season
Fringe please hold on
Well, Fringe has gotten a lot better quality wise this season. I think Last Thursdays ratings show that without any competition, the show does good enough.
Without competition all that Fringe can pull is a 2.5? Fringe fans, your show is so dead as Melrose Place.
Fringe needs to come back, it’s the only thing i watch on Fox, besides the already canceled Dollhouse. I’d love to see Fringe as an anchor show or better yet air after AI Results. I just want it to stay till its story has aired its course. I wouldn’t mind if Fringe took the Lost/24 route and only air in the Spring or Fall with no interruptions.
Olegas, I 100% agree with you. 2.5 is pathetic. I hope it does get cancelled.
*Less* competition. JFC. The Office, 30 Rock, and Private Practice shouldn’t be considered no competition. Fringe isn’t even that far off from Bones, especially when you add in the DVR numbers.
j, your definition of “not that far off” may be different from mine but Bones’ adults 18-49 season to date rating with all available DVR viewing added in is a 3.5, and Fringe’s is a 3.0. That’s a pretty big difference.
It probably won’t matter much since once all the competition returns the numbers will fall back to what they were before. But I hope that Fox does break the rules and bring it back.
Cancel Fringe, please (I’m not the above.)
Speaking of cancelled Fox shows, Time magazine lists one of the Dollhouse eps as the #4 TV ep of the year (Sons of Anarchy is their #9 overall show for the year; Mad Men’s predictably #1.):
“Magnificent experiment…string of amazing episodes proved that this was a staggeringly ambitious, thought-provoking show about exploitation, identity and what it means to be a person…fascinating…Dollhouse failed better than most shows succeed.”
Isn’t Glee returning on Tuesdays to compete against LOST? Or did they change that.
Jayme, my discussion in the post isn’t about where Fringe might fit in the spring, but in the fall.
I’m thinking Fox renews it because of JJ Abrams and Anna Torv being Rupert Murdoch’s niece.
Yet again, Torv is Murdoch’s ex-niece in law (no blood relation). It’s possible he has a soft spot for her, but given the messy divorce press Torv’s mother was involved with, I doubt it.
I thinl fringe numbers are much better than lie to me numbers.
fringe is above almost any drama in NBC.
i’m thinking if fringe stays above a 2.2 it be rewened for a new season.
the sow could growht a lot, because he hve a huge DVR impact. this don’t count for advertisers mas count for success purposes.
Can’t wait til FlashForward gets cancelled before Fringe. That show had SO much potential. But boring episodes, along with an AWFUL, AWFUL Joseph Fiennes, made me stop watching weeks ago. I would think Fox believes in Fringe, especially after a successful 1st season, and JJ Abrams producing. Just abandon this Thursday night experiment, and move Fringe to another night.
I agree, Lie To Me would get much worse numbers on Thursday Night.
Ummm, for the 3 thousandth time…fringe will not be cancelled. Trust me on this one. Your renew cancel list is meaningless.
My guess is FOX will renew Fringe and its likely to stay 9pm Thursdays. The reason is consistency. With next fall likely to be identical to this fall (Except fridays will be completely different and FOX may air a new series post House), Fringe is likely to stay put. Plus if Fringe gets axed, what other series could possibly compete at 9. I can think of 2 dramas that can face Greys, CSI and Office and theres no way FOX will ever move House or Bones to 9 Thursdays. Fringe may be doing badly at 9, but whatever FOX replaces it with will likely do worse.
Look at Past Life to serve as a possible example. That series will liekly to horrible during the 6 week Fringe hiatus Feb-March, yet if Fringe is an improvement it will return. The only green series that is bubble status is Lie to Me and its only chance of survival is if it does well on fridays. Actually with Friday’s Dollhouse being the worst in years if Lie to Me can improve, FOX may leave it on fridays for 2010-2011.
i dont think fox is anywhere close to canceling fringe, plus i have hope because Fringe has done something very few serialized type cult dramas have been able to, it actually has a really easy week to week accessibility to new viewers while always giving the fans of the mythology something too