Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through December 6, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) |  0.53 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55* |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.62 |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.61 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.67 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.89 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.98 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.03 |
| The Mentalist | 1.06 |
| CSI (P) | 1.07 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.14 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.11 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.16 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.36 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.38 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.47 |
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Conventional wisdom is that CBS has put up with the poor ratings for The New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried on Wednesday nights because it wanted to establish a second "comedy block". They could still want to do that, but nothing says they have to keep the same two comedies there. At the end of this season, Old Christine will have 89 episodes, so there will be no absolute need to produce more for syndication. And Gary has done about 10% better in the ratings than Christine, both overall and in the last month. Not that it's necessarily going to be an either / or situation between the two, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Christine finally shipped off, while Gary remains next season.
*Three Rivers is off CBS' schedule and as close to canceled as you're likely to get from CBS. Its Index is frozen at the point of the last week it aired, since it has no announced return date.
Accidentally On Purpose's good timeslot following How I Met Your Mother makes its borderline Index look weaker than it would be were it elsewhere on the CBS schedule. Its prospects for next year are not bright.
In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It's now in significant danger of not coming back.
The Good Wife ratings seem to be settling just on the edge of the danger zone for cancellation. On NBC, it would be a star, on CBS it's borderline.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
ABC better pick up Old Christine if CBS fails to do so. they’ve never really cared for it in the first place, moving time to time then day to day, know wonder ratings aren’t as strong as it once was. So ABC if you’re listening this is your chance to take and pair with Cougar Town.
I think these shows will be gone after this season:
- Cold Case
- Numbers
- Accidentally On Purpose
- Three Rivers
The Good wife could move for friday night at 9pm, Medium at 10pm. i think that CBS could give a order 13 episodes and midseason.
CBS only airs syndication numbers and Canadian on Fridays. The Good Wife is neither.
Still, I suspect CBS may give TGW a shot on Sundays next season, as all of Cold Case/Three Rivers/Miami Trauma won’t be back.
I think it’s time for CBS to try a different show at 8 on Wednesdays. Old Christine just isn’t strong enough on it’s own to start the night. I think Gary Unmarried has more potential if it has a better leadin. And I doubt ABC will want to pick it up now that they have some good performing comedies in their line up. The reason ABC wanted it last year was because they needed comedies. But with MF and CT, and even The Middle ABC should be ok. They will mostly have a good number of comedies in development for next year too (including the Matthew Perry one that ABC has picked up.)
Who’s the random woman in red in that picture. Barb(ie Wanda Sykes) should be in there.
chrisjozo, I think its the creator of Old Christine.
I think CBS should give Gary Unmarried a shot at 8:30 on Mondays and put Rules of Enagagement on Wednesdays.
I’d like to see Gary in the 8:30 spot before 2 1/2 Men, just to see how it does
Tommy – My guess is this for next season
Mondays
8:00 How I Met Your Mother
8:30 NEW COMEDY
9:00 Two and a Half Men
9:30 The Big Bang Theory
Wednesdays
8:00 Rules of Engagement
8:30 Gary Unmarried
Gary could work at 8:30 or 8 but with Rules likely performing better than Accidentally on Purpose (when AOP gets replaced by ROE in March) Rules may get renewed. If it lands on the fall schedule, it may be smart to combine the established Rules and third year Gary for a year. The combo could work, and Id like to see CBS use the underrated Rules for wednesdays to test it out rather than just keep it for midseason. As for mondays, with AOP likely axed, CBS can try out a new comedy at 8:30 following HIMYM and hopefully one that will last.
The woman in red in the lead pic was a guest on the show recently and the real life wife of Greg Clark who plays Richard.
Oh Old Christine, I would be sad but not surprised if the show is canceled by May.
Forg – I woudlnt be suprised either. The thing with Christine is that its not doing worse than last year in the 8:00 slot but its really not improving and 89 episodes is good for syndication, so if CBS wants to try out a new series in that slot (Or Rules) 8:00 next season they should. Plus ABC will probably pick Old Christine up next season should CBS drop it. The worst thing is putting AOP and Gary Unmarried together on Wednesdays.
Victor Hugo – I agree completely, except leave Medium at 9 and move Good Wife to 10 fridays.
I would like to see ABC get Christine next year, they obviously love the show but Christine is a very CBS type show, reminds me of a perkier version of Mary Tyler Moore.
Gary needs a new leadin at 8 on Wednesdays and maybe Rules could do better there.
I hope so, I also think Old Christine can bring back ABC’s multi cam theme, (with this years failed Hank). Maybe if ABC picks up Old Christine and pairs it with Cougar Town, it can be a good combo.
Good Wife should air on Sundays… 10pm, after The Mentalist
I was thinking should CBS move The Mentalist to 9pm SUndays they should air a new drama at 10. The should also air new dramas at 10 Tuesdays and 10 Thursdays. And every other slot be returning shows, with the exception of 8:30 mondays.
I think also that ABC should let Christine be the multi-cam that they build around. ABC needs to keep bringing in more multi-cams b/c if you find one that hits it hits big, look at Men, The Big Bang Theory, and iCarly now in days.
BlueLick, the problem with that is I don’t see Old Christine being a smash hit on ABC. I really believe that if the show can’t perform well on CBS it has no hope on another network.
Maybe not, Tommy, but OC performs much better than Hank did Wednesdays at 8pm. There are really a lot of variables, but that could be reason enough.
Doug, it doesn’t take much to outperform Hank. I think OC would just be another Scrubs for ABC without the benefits of syndication since it’s produced by WB.
I think a lot of you are forgetting that CBS tried putting Rules on wednesday (I think it was last year, but may have been the year before) for an episode or 2. It didnt do as well as Christine on wednesday, and I definately dont see them moving HIMYM, 2.5 Men, and obviously TBBT to wednesday. So with Christine doing better than Rules on wed. and no other real options other than putting a new comedy in its place (which again, probably wont get ratings as “good” as Christine), the best option for the time being would be to do a temp. swap of Gary and Christine and play it from there.