Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 6, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.58 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.82 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.87 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.90 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 0.91 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 0.93 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.31 |
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Since its ratings are nearly the only good news that the CW's had all season, of course Vampire Diaries will be renewed for next season. In fact, it's more likely that the CW's name will be changed to The Vampire Diaries Network, than that Melrose Place will survive until next season.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
True Blood is a better show in my opinion.
melrose place is gone after 18 episodes.
The only reason that all of the shows are beating Smallville is because Smallville is on fridays and on fridays shows dont get more then a 2.0 at least average like a 1.5 if it was still on thursday or any other night u would be called the cw the Smallville Network. Im happy tho for Supernatural and Vampire Diaries as I watch those too.
“Supernatural (S), (P) 0.93
Vampire Diaries (P) 1.31″
When these two shows are your top two in the formula used here its pretty obvious what the CW needs to do to fix their network.
MORE BROTHERLY HOYAY!!
I would probably call Supernatural my favorite show not called Lost so im really hoping that they can work out going past a 5th season even though that was the planned arc for the show.
Gleebo, Jared and Jensen are signed on for a season 6 so they have to do it if it gets renewed the only thing that is stopping it is Eric Kripke (the creator) because he might leave and that MIGHT ruin the show’s chances. Right now if Eric Kripke goes and no one takes over as showrunners then the ratings wont even be able to renew Supernatural. We just need to find out if he is staying or going and if he does go will anyone take over as show runners.
Hey, Smallville.
In some interviews Eric already said that he is planing a 6th season, so I don’t think he’s planing to leave.
I’m just worried over the ratings. If he sees that there is no watchers enough, then he might leave.
I surelly hope not… I’m sure that him and the writers can make the show as good as always.
The CW is not the only mini-network contemplating mid-season sked shifts and separating the wheat from the chaffe when it comes to the 2010-11 upfront. Both MyNetworkTV and ION are taking stock of their current skeds, and pondering sked moves to improve their competitive position and that of their affiliates.
MyNetworkTV Renew / Cancel Index (based on HH/A18-49/P2+ finals for ‘Smackdown’ and metered market HHs for other series):
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?Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
-> ‘My Thursday Night Movie’ 0.7HH/1%
-> ‘Deal or No Deal’ 0.8/1%
-> ‘The Unit’ (encores) 0.8/1%
?Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
-> ‘Law & Order: Criminal Intent’ (encores) 1.1/2%
-> ‘Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader’ 1.3/2%
?Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
-> ‘WWE Friday Night Smackdown’ 2.0HH/4%, 1.12 A18-49, 3,435,000 P2+ viewers
Results for the one-season programming services experiment on MyNetworkTV are at best steady to last season, and the net should soon be making long-term decisions on whether the experiment continues into 2010-11. Aside from ‘WWE Friday Night Smackdown’, there’s a good chance that ‘Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader’ may continue to find a spot on the network sked.
ION Renew / Cancel Index (based on Weeks 1-6 HH finals for all series):
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?Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
-> ‘ION Friday Movie’ 0.1HH/0%
-> ‘Durham County’ 0.3HH/0%
?Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
-> ‘ION Sunday Movie’ 0.4HH/1%
?Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
-> ‘ION Saturday Movie’ 0.5HH/1%
-> ‘Ghost Whisperer’ 0.5HH/1%
-> ‘Criminal Minds’ 0.6HH/1%
-> ‘NCIS’ 0.6HH/1%
After getting off to a weak start in the first three weeks of 2009/10, ION has been gaining momentum of late, setting all-time network highs in households, A18-49 and P2+ viewers. The ION mojo is coming from encores of CBS off-net series… ‘NCIS’, ‘Criminal Minds’ and ‘Ghost Whisperer’… and all are expected to continue as pillars of the ION sked.
Less certain is whether ION will continue with its theatrical movie- programmed weekends, and whether ION will pick up a third season of the offbeat cult Canadian series ‘Durham County’ (season 2 is skedded to make its debut on ION Sunday nights in the new year).
CW’s sched is easy to predict with Thursdays and Fridays next season being identical to this seasons as well as 90210 and ANTM remaining on Tuesdays and Wednesdays at 8 respectively.
I would so totally watch “The Vampire Diaries Network”.
With Melrose Place likely axed, the best thing CW can do now if they like the series is give it a few more episodes to make it last longer.
You should have saved the “Vampire Diaries Network” idea for the April Fools Day 2010 post
Jared, the CW was the 2009 April Fools, NBC was 2008, gotta go with somebody new in 2010!
supernatural is the best show on television. its a shame it gets these little numbers..
So the CW is slowly turning into the Twilight fangirls channel, seeing as the top three shows are pretty much Vampire Diaries, Supernatural and Smallville?
Don’t you dare use the T-word in the same sentence as Vampire Diaries, Supernatural and Smallville, which are all about 10x better than that crap!
Nic, o thank you i did not know that. Well then if all the Supernatural fans can skip their plans for a an hour on thursdays then Supernatural will get renewed. Lets hope for it! ANd for Smallville it is already likely to be renewed. Also nic since the 100th episode is coming up the episode will most likely give it a huge boost so lets keep our heads up people.
The CW needs to change their name back to the WB and ratings will automatically increase. Instead of overall focusing on girls 18-34. have advertising bonuses for male and female on a show to show basis.
Smallville Male 18-34
Vampire Diaries Woman 18-34 etc..
After all the fuss in the comments last week, I lol’d at the headline!
@Smallville: At this time, it’s about if the CW will or won’t pick up Kripke’s contract. He definitely wants back since he’s already planning season 6.
Supernatural is awsome and I hope it gets a sixth season. They should run it all the way to syndication at the very least! I’m from the UK and over here people have anly just started to really get in to the show in the past year. It was virtualy unheard of untill season three! I think that the fact that it appeals to a wider male audience than a female one makes it so good! It doesnt have the usual boy/girl drama that has turned me off so many shows in the past! It’s probably one of the best written shows on TV and despite the lack of aknowledgement, promotion and credit it deserves it still manages to hold its own during the toughest time slot of the entire week!
Oh and please dont lump Supernarural in with VD ever! They arent even in the same league! Just because I love SN doesnt mean I’m a mindless sucker for a vampire! I dont do necrophilia!