Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through December 6, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) | 0.39 |
| Hank | 0.54* |
| Eastwick | 0.58 |
| the forgotten | 0.62 |
| Scrubs (P) |  0.65 |
| The Middle | 0.68 |
| Castle (P) | 0.75 |
| FlashForward (P) |  0.95 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 0.99 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.02 |
| Modern Family | 1.10 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.18 |
| V | 1.23 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.53 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.77 |
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Flash Forward ended its fall run on a down note, scoring just a 2.1 rating for adults 18-49. Short of a miraculous reversal in it's ratings trend when it returns in March, it's not coming back next fall.
Scrubs returned to its second season on ABC with a 2.0 rating. While that's not good, I would not have been surprised with much worse. I'll give it a few weeks before wondering whether it will become another According to Jim -type zombie show ratings loser kept alive just to generate more episodes for syndication.
The Middle had one very hopeful ratings night after it was freed from Hank, but fell back last week with just a 2.0 rating. It's still on an upward trend, but just barely. The final results from last night aren't yet in for Castle, but its preliminary 2.3 rating would be an indication its recent upward trend had stalled.
Ugly Betty will be moving to Wednesday at 10pm beginning January 6. Short of a ratings miracle, there is no chance this does anything but change its final timeslot before cancellation at the end of this season.
the forgotten, has an order for additional episodes, but has continued to drift downward in the ratings and there is no chance it returns in fall 2010. Eastwick and Hank have both been officially canceled, but since Eastwick may continue to air for an unknown number of episodes, I will not freeze it's Index yet. *Hank's Index is frozen at the point it was removed from ABC's schedule.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Will the Index continue to run over the next few weeks while most shows are on hiatus, or will the Index itself go on break until shows return in January? Just curious, because if it DOES continue…well, what data would go into it? Repeats shown through the break?
I would honestly be fine if Ugly Betty got canceled after this season. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if that has been the plan since the get go. Everything they’ve been doing seems to have been focusing in on some sort of resolution. This season has had a much different (and better) tone, but it’s also seemed very…final. I don’t know how to describe it.
Is there still a Fables pilot in the works at ABC? It was announced last December to be in development, and then no other news came out about it. That would be an AMAZING show, if done right.
Better Off Ted returns tonight! I hope it gets decent ratings!
Ryan47, the season to date averages for the networks (and individual shows) contain in slot repeats, so everything will continue as usual.
Okay, good to know. Thanks Bill!
Hopefully with FF on hiatus, ABC will tell or give the showrunners a big hint to wrap things up so that at least even though it only gets one season, it will get to end its storyline with no cliffhanger.
Castle looks solid to get a third season mainly since it appears as though ABC has no midseason shows they like so they will have too many holes come the fall and even if its ratings aren’t great, they seem relatively consistent so as long as it holds around where it is, I believe it will return next season.
The Middle really is in the middle – if ABC can get something on before it, it might have a better chance. Scrubs really is ABC’s new According to Jim – will Better off Ted get a reprieve again if Scrubs continues next season? Interested to see how Scrubs/Ted fare tonight.
How does Scrubs have a smiley in its first week on the index?
I think The Middle will be back next year, yes it’s ratings weren’t as high last week as they have been the past few weeks. But with it being the only sitcom with a new episode last Wednesday, I’m impressed it was able to pull a 2.0.
If I was a Castle fan I would be slightly worried about next year. While 1 week doesn’t make a trend, it does look like Castle depends on the lead in of DWTS to pull decent numbers. There is still hope for it though, after all it is ABC’s 3rd best 10PM performer.
I think between V and FF, FF will be the show that is extremely hurt by the long hiatus. It’s hiatus wasn’t expected like V’s was. Not to mention I think V will get more promotion for it’s return then FF will. FF is going to have a hard time getting viewers to give it a 2nd try. At least V went into it’s break it still had pretty decent ratings.
I don’t know what ABC will do with Scrubs, will 9 seasons be enough for ABC in syndication? Syndication and December-January filler are the only reasons that I see ABC bringing Scrubs back for a 10th season next year.
The Forgotten is as good as gone, it’s ratings are very low. I’m really surprised ABC ordered more episodes for this year instead of canceling it along with Eastwick and Hank.
And now for Ugly Betty, I completely agree with what Bill said in the post. A ratings miracle when it moves to Wednesdays, or ABC wanting more episodes for syndication (which I think would be unlikely for a 1 hr dramedy.) The reason I think more syndication episodes is unlikely is because unlike 30 min sitcoms, serialized dramedies don’t do that well in syndication. Bill or Robert please correct me if I’m wrong….when a show doesn’t repeat well on broadcast does that lower it’s syndication value? (And lately Betty Originals don’t do well let alone repeats)
@ Julia -
Maybe Bill is just in a very good mood today?!
Maybe Scrubs has a smiley because it beat expectations, I know it beat what I expected it to do.
At this point I think FlashForward’s story only has the life for one season anyways… But under no circumstance should they cancel the show on a cliff hanger.
ABC might wanna start looking for some patch kits instead of watching NBC’s ship sink. ABC is just a Desperate Housewives contract renewal stalemate or Greys Anatomy behind the scenes squabble away from joining them. Without those two shows its not pretty and Dancing With the Stars is probably starting to wear out its welcome. I currently watch more shows on ABC than any other network by a long shot but when those shows are Flash Forward, V, Scrubs, Better Off Ted, Lost, Modern Family, and the Middle its pretty easy to see myself ignoring the network entirely next fall minus Modern Family.
Bill or Robert, Do u know why Flash Forward is on a hiatus till march? Is it because one of the exectuive producers left?
I hope ABC will at least let “Flash Forward” have an ending and not just leave the fans of the show hanging, the way USA Network did with “4400″.
Castle’s tie-in book ‘Heat Wave’ continues to sell well, so that may help it if it remains on the bubble.
AO, I don’t see how the book will help it get renewed. Unless ABC is the publisher of the book it’s really not a factor for them.
Tommy, it’s published by a division of Disney. But I don’t know that book sales will really make enough to save the show, anyway.
Thanks for the info Julia, and I agree I don’t think the book will have any impact on the shows renewal either.
Julia,
I don’t believe that the book sales, as good as they have been, will be enough to save the show on their own. But I do think that they may help if say, ABC has to make a choice between Castle and FlashForward and both have similar ratings by the time a decision is called for.
If Castle clearly doesn’t deserve to return then it won’t, but if it’s not a clear-cut choice, then it would seem logical for the book to play some part in the decision making.
I really don’t see the book playing a part at all. I see the book as marketing that Disney got lucky with and will actually be making some money off of. But it’s a marketing ploy, and if the show is on the bubble again at the end of the season, it’s a marketing ploy that didn’t work very well. If it comes down to Castle vs FF, it’ll be an issue of cost. FF almost certainly costs more than Castle. That would be a much bigger deciding factor than any sort of book.