Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 6, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.67 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.71 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.76 |
| Community | 0.82 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.90 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.94 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.12 |
| The Office (P) | 1.53 |
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What does Comcast see when it looks at NBC broadcast primetime? Two dead dramas (Mercy, Trauma), one drama holding on by a thread (Heroes), two poorly rated comedies that may just have to do (Parks & Recreation, Community), and one drama hoping for an historical renewal (Law & Order).
My guess is that most of all Comcast would like all the bad press about NBC primetime to go away. Witness the "We love primetime. Really!" offensive in public from both Comcast execs and NBCU's Jeff Zucker over the past week. I think that's a smart move. It's a lot easier to get the TV press off their backs than it is to actually improve the situation, but one step at a time.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
L&O could really improve that index if it got a chance outside Fridays.
I think Heroes may still end up with another season. Even if it’s syndication that get’s it a 5th and final season. Law & Order may squeak out another one too. As far as Parks and Community, I think NBC would be better served by canceling both and trying something new instead of waiting for these 2 shows to grow. Parks has improved a lot but without some sort of buzz to attract new viewers I dont see it growing.
I mentioned this before but The Office and 30 Rock both got off to rocky starts. The difference is The Office grew after Steve Carell became a household name when he starred in The 40 Year Old Virgin. And if it wasn’t for Tina Fey doing Sarah Palin on SNL, I doubt 30 Rock would have ever taken off in the ratings. Luck hit NBC’s comedies twice, but I don’t seeing that kind of luck hitting them a 3rd time.
Joel McHale is already a Comcast employee. they like the cross promotion aspect
Perhaps next season we’ll be seeing Law & Order: Ryan Seacrest Stalker Special.
I couldn’t agree with you more, Tommy.
“An historical”? So you’re one of those people.
LOL I was thinking the same thing – it’s A historical as you don’t pronounce the vowel sound.
Ouch, Heroes is only .08 points above Community in the Index? Not good.
Does being a 30 minutes vs 60 minute show carry any weight in the index? I’d think a 30 minute would have more leeway, I’m curious if the numbers back that up though.
Community’s great and I hate that it’s not a home run ratings-wise, but, at least it’s at the top of the orange. I don’t know what I’d do without Supercute Blonde and Supercute Brunette (both of whom are fantastic comedic actresses) every week.
Chevy Chase hasn’t been a slouch, either. His days of being a leading man are over and he’s doing great as a supporting actor. That must be tough after being a leading man for so many years, but I’m glad he took this part instead of just fading away, because he IS funny. He’s Chevy Chase.
Tommy – My guess is NBC may let the two comedy series grow (which is probably why they aired them together to compete at 8, rather than give one the Office lead in benefit. If NBC cancels one comedy, my guess is that Parks may be it, but im optimistic that both will stay. As for the veteran dramas L&O and Heroes both are really 50/50. They both arent doing great, however NBC doesnt really have any other drama doing better (besides SVU) so its not like either veteran is on the immediate chopping block. With Mercy and Trauma, the difference is 6 episodes and both may ultimately end up being axed by May. If either has a shot at Season 2 its Trauma. NBC’s “bubble” series are the hardest to predict. Between ABC, CBS, FOX and CW I can say as early as now which shows will return and which will be axed by May but NBC is very difficult. The only thing I can say is SVU, Office, 30 Rock, and Biggest Loser will return.
Dan, I don’t see any factors that will make Community or Parks and Rec. grow. Community is a good show, and Parks has really improved quality wise. But unless some outside force gives either show a boost (like the boosts that I mentioned earlier for The Office and 30 Rock) I don’t see how they can grow.
8PM is a really tough timeslot on Thursdays, but should NBC be complacent with low 2′s for that hour? That’s really the biggest question.
Tommy – I think being consistent and keeping the two 8-9 for next season would be the best. If NBC isnt gonna move 30 Rock to 8, then keeping the newer comedies 8-9 may be a better option. It worked somewhat for CBS by keeping lower rated Christine and Gary 8-9. Plus and new series that NBC puts on Thursdays whether it be replacing Parks or Community will likely fare worse.
I think we’ll have a clearer picture of Heroes’s future once Chuck starts again.
Law & Order could go either way. P&R and Community will only be back if NBC’s pilots next season don’t gain any traction.
Trauma is dead, ditto Mercy.
J.G. – I agree, the Chuck/Heroes combo could benefit or hurt either series. How Heroes performs Jan-Feb at 9 can be the final nail in the coffin. And L&O can go either way, hopefully leaning toward renewal. Im optimistic about both Parks and Community returning.
Dan, while consistency works for CBS, NBC needs more than consistency at this point. They consistently come in 4th place at 8PM and 8:30 on Thursdays. I don’t see that as an good place to be consistent when there is a lot of room for improvement.
J.G., I agree part of the deciding factor will be what NBC has in development for next season.
‘h’ isn’t a vowel. I’m just sayin’
(Just to not provoke an angry response. I know the ‘h’ is grammatically correct it just sounds wrong in that sentence)
Tommy – Well their track record for improvement has taken a gradual decline from 2006-2009. COnsider that NBC has no hits from the past 2 seasons drama wise, not to mention their only surviving drama being Chuck, held until midseason or their only comedy from the past 2 years being Parks which was renewed on a whim. Community is a great series quality wise and Parks has gotten a lot better, yet both shows are doing badly. With NBC not having a hit in years, they may as well stick with what they have and hope something does well next season. Heck even the CW has a hit in The Vampire Diaries which coincidentally runs during the same time as Community and Parks.
I read a article about NBC being sold to Comcast and the Comcast guy was quoted as saying GE had been very cost aware of everything they did on NBC and it seemed to imply that maybe Comcast might be more agressive in how and what they will be bringing to NBC. Maybe the accountants will have to take a step back and allow something different to happen at NBC. If they get agressive maybe they can turn NBC around. It will be interesting to see what changes happen in the next few years. As bad as NBC’s rating are big changes can be or should be considered necessary!
As a fan of grammar, I have to admit that the “an historic” versus “a historic” debate is one of my favorite things to watch.
Dan, NBC needs to get out of the ratings gutter. Keeping 2 shows that always come in 2nd to last, and even come close to being beaten by a show on The CW is just bad business. And the fact that they haven’t had a hit in years is even more motivation to drop the shows that aren’t doing well and try something new next season. I think both shows should be canceled, but realistically it’s more likely that 1 will be canceled, because NBC will want to launch at least 1 new comedy next season.