Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 13, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.22 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.26 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.26 |
| Fringe |  0.64 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.82 |
| Bones (P) | 0.83 |
| American Dad (P) | 0.93 |
| Glee (P) | 0.96 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.13 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.18 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.26 |
| House | 1.56 |
-
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall 18-49 average (3.4 vs. ~3.0 before baseball). That will slowly subside as Fox’s average declines post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
Fringe was aired for a week without Grey's Anatomy or a new CSI, and ratings were up to a 2.5!
Last night a new Lie To Me was on without a new House as a lead in, and ratings were down to a 2.2!
And while fans are more likely to "take sides" than decision makers at Fox, can there be anything more fun in this week's comments than "TVBTN Fox Fan Smackdown!"? Game on, baby!
Dollhouse, Brothers and 'Til Death are all canceled, either in fact or in practice. Dollhouse fans will see all its episodes that were produced, that's the best the other two can hope for as well.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
-
Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Fringe! and first
Fringe needs to be renewed. Best television show on networks at the moment. Also, i think there are a lot of other crime shows where someone is dead and a bunch of people try to find out who did this. It’s getting boring. Fringe is defferent and qualitity wise a lot better. Lie To Me just takes away space on my computer cause i downloaded all season 2 episodes so far but haven’t watched it so far…
I’d certainly bet on NEITHER being renewed before I’d bet on both getting renewed. So I’m not sure it does have to be one or the other. Neither is a possibility too!
Then again, I can think of MANY (many, many) things more fun than a TVBTN Fox Fan Smackdown.
Umm I like both shows but I know for a fact Fringe is going to be renewed so I guess Lie to Me is a goner..
Kenny, I’m not sure that you’ve ever seen Lie to Me season 1, even, if you think it’s about solving murders.
^You’re a decision maker at FOX? Wow, do we have some questions for you…
Anthony, where do you get your facts from? At this point in the season, there’s no one at Fox, even, who knows that for a fact.
oops, that was for Anthony.
I’d cry if either is cancelled, but I suppose I’d cry more if it is Fringe.
Is it really going to be one or the other? Was this the situation last year with the whole dollhouse vs terminator fiasco? Either way, I was a fan of both shows then, and I’m a fan of these two shows and if one gets canceled and not the other I’ll be just as upset. (less the “grudge”)
No contest! Bye bye Fringe…Hello Lie to Me!
Lie to Me!!
Unless Fox decides to make SYTYCD summer only, rather than fall only, I don’t really see any choice but to cancel both. Everything else that’s getting canceled is on Friday, and I can’t see Fox premiering new shows that they actually want to succeed there. Fridays will almost definitely go back to all reality.
So either Fox only plans to premiere one new show next fall, or both are gone. (Or SYTYCD is gone.)
Isn’t there a possibility that SYTYCD goes back to being a summer show and not come back next fall? If that happened they would almost have to give both shows a 13 episode run next fall and decide at that point.
Yes, because there’s really a Fox executive who’s being forced to chose between the two.
Geez. Are you guys just trying to ensure that if one’s canceled and the other isn’t, that fans of the canceled one will attack the other like the whole “Dollhouse was “Chosen” instead of T:SCC!” crap?
Julia, I think it’s likely SYTYCD will go back to a summer only format, but only to make room for The X Factor in the fall. I don’t know if X Factor is a done deal yet, but I would be shocked if FOX passed on it.
This may be selfish but I hope Fringe wins simply because I enjoy watching it. I love a good sci-fi show and they are an endagered breed this year.
Scott, if SYTYCD goes back to summer, and one of these shows is canceled, Fox only needs to find four hours Sun-Thurs. Figure 2 hours reality and 2 new scripted dramas. They still don’t have to keep both.
Lie to Me will have an idol lead in when it returns on April 7th which should give it the advantage since fringe is still on thursdays