Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 13, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.64 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.89 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.90 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 0.98 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.99 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 1.00 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.36 |
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If you get the sense I'm running out of things to say about Melrose Place being the only show on the CW that's likely to be canceled at the end of the season, and there's still a lot more season to go, you'd be correct. The new mid-season show (now named Life Unexpected, previously Life UneXpected, feel the letter case changing buzz!) cannot arrive soon enough.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Sadly for the renew/cancel index there is only one
Life UneXpected all the rest are reality right?
Raymond, I believe you are correct.
Well, you can always hope that the new reality shows do so amazingly well that it pushes some of the other scripted shows into danger territory.
Are repeats depressing Supernatural or are GG and OTH actually improving?
Just out of curiosity, Bill, what happens to the index for CW next week with Vampire Diaries repeats all over the schedule?
The only reality show that will do really well on the CW is “The Self Destruction of Tiger Woods Sleeping With A Skank Over At The CW”…
…wait a minute – not even Melrose Place fans would believe that
Mel, I’m not Bill, but usually only in slot repeats count to a show’s season average. They will all count towards CW’s average, though.
Mel – if I recall what Bill and Robert said previously, out-of-slot repeats do not count, but in-slot repeats do…
Julia said it better – and quicker
Thanks Julia and Theoacme! That makes sense.
I have another question actually – is it true that CW will not be airing any original programs till March on both Tue and Wed night? According to Ausiello 90210 and Melrose Place don’t return till early March and futoncritic.com has repeats of One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl listed on Wed night from Dec 23rd with Next Top Model returning early March as well according to eztv. I just wonder about how sensible it is for CW to essentially go dark on two nights a week for nearly 2.5 months! I mean wouldn’t it have been sensible to air Life UneXpected on another night and kept repeats of OTH and GG on the night they actually air? Any news on when the reality shows CW ordered will come back?
Isn’t 90210 getting awfully close to “danger” territory?
Mel – a compliment! Thank you – that was the nicest present I got for my birthday this year (at least until my better half kisses me good night later)
I’m just saying that a 0.89 puts Accidentally on Purpose on the chopping block over on CBS. I know there are some apples v. oranges going on with that, but still.
Zeker, I haven’t been tracking CW’s W18-34 average lately, so I’d have to do a bit of math to figure it out, but previously 90210′s W18-34 average was doing better on the index than its A18-49 average. That could save it.
zeker – the entire CW is perilously close to “Danger! Danger!” territory…
…imagine Dawn Ostroff as a heroine on the cover of a Harlequin romance novel, bodice barely holding together, Fabio and Triple H retching helplessly into a porta-potty…
…save me a spot, Fabio!
I am really interested to see how Life Unexpected does. Melrose is done, and that leaves 90210 and Life Unexpected as the only CBS shows with any chance of being on the CW next year. I like 90210′s chances a lot for that reason.
90210 is just a step away from becoming CW’s second highest rated show. The quality is there and all they need to do is pick up the viewers. Maybe they can do like FOX did back in 1991 and air a summer season. That move made Beverly Hills, 90210 what it was.
@Julia: Right, how could I have forgotten the DO factor. Thanks.
@Scotty: I am not sure how you make the jump from “on the cutting block” to “second-highest-rated show” unless you mean in the women demo.
@Robert: Why is the fact that it is a CBS show a benefit? I know CBS owns the CW but does that help the show somehow? Doesn’t is still show up as a bottom-line cost for the CW, or are the Accountants giving it a credit somehow when they reconcile the books with the parent corp?
Zeker I do mean overall viewers. It needs a huge pickup in viewers and I think its too hard for them to get during the season against stiff competition.