Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 13, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.53 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.65 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.68 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.73 |
| Community | 0.79 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.87 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.90 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.09 |
| The Office (P) | 1.48 |
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NBC won the weekly adults 18-49 ratings last week. What? That was the power of Sunday Night Football vs. the competition airing at least a few repeats during the week. But there's only 2 more SNF games left, and after that, except for the two weeks of the Winter Olympics, the future ratings outlook for NBC is grim.
But that's good news for NBC's marginal shows like Parks & Recreation, Community and Heroes. NBC's overall 18-49 ratings average will drop like a rock (it's 2.8 now, I could see them averaging a 2.1 for most weeks in Jan-May.) That will make individual show'4s results look a lot better (and not just to the Index, but likely in the eyes of NBC as well). What's bad for the network averages is good for the fans of those shows!
That's not going to help Trauma and Mercy. They're completely underwater and have no chance of being renewed for next season.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Bummer. I think Parks and Rec and Community have greatly improved and I love those two shows!
NBC needs to clean house by season’s end. I will keep Trauma and Mercy together though, a lot of potential there. Law & Order and Biggest Loser are the only things worth saving unless Parenthood hits.
Destroy that comedy lineup except The Office, no reason to keep the other ones except the fact that 30 Rock is entering syndication in 2011.
Everything else can burn in fire. NBC needs a new identity starting next season.
Wait, you want to clean house, but you think they should keep Trauma and Mercy? And then Biggest Loser and Law & Order. Also The Office and 30 Rock. And maybe Parenthood.
Basically, you think they should cancel Heroes, Community and Parks & Rec. That sure would be cleaning house.
I mean make this 2-3 year process of cleaning house, I should’ve mentioned that before obviously.
You can’t clean house within one year. Comcast obviously will do the rest of it by 2012 and you’ll see a completely different schedule by then. Cleaning house doesn’t always mean that you don’t keep your whole schedule around, it means over half the things that air now are gone. NBC has Leno at 10pm so it makes it seem like their not cleaning house.
There are three more Sunday night games. Just two more Monday night games.
Then NBC has two Wild Card playoff games Saturday, Jan. 9. The general point of winter/spring ratings sadness at NBC is taken though.
How is replacing 2 or 3 shows a year over several years different than…well any network except CBS?
Really hope Community makes it however low its chances may be. It really is a funny show and that last episode was farking hilarious.
“There are three more Sunday night games. Just two more Monday night games.”
I don’t believe so. The last Sunday Night Football game is December 27. However, you are correct that NBC will get a primetime football playoffs ratings boost on January 9 as well.
I really hope they keep Mercy. That show has alot of potential, but I have no idea why people aren’t watching it, well at least people with Nielsen ratings boxes.
It is just so strange to look at NBC’s renew/cancel index and see so few shows in total.
If we assume that Leno comes back 5-nights-a-week next year, there really is no reason NBC couldn’t clean basically the whole house. I would imagine Heroes could come back and still make money if the budget were trimmed again, but there is no earthly reason that NBC could not have five new shows ready to go by fall. That really isn’t that many.
So, as much as it pains me to say it about P&R and Community, I can’t see why they would bother to bring back any of the bottom five or six.
Of course, if they decide to cut back Leno, or cut out Leno, then that’s a whole other story. But if Leno comes back in full, then don’t expect to see any of the above return.
Leno makes it hard to talk about NBC really cleaning house because if they keep Loser, SVU, The Office, and 30 Rock, (and perhaps L&O as a midseason). Assuming they keep Leno, that’s still only 5-6 open hours. ABC premiered 7 hours of new programming this year and no one thought of it as “cleaning house”
Holly, that’s why I think there’s a good argument to be made for NBC doing so, and why I really hope they do.
I only count six for ABC – Shark Tank, The Forgotten, the 2 hour comedy block, Eastwick and Flashforward. I think a lot will depend on whether NBC decides to scale back Leno – something I think that may simply be economically illogical – particularly if there are high sunk costs such as studio hire and Leno’s fee – which is reportedly locked in for two years. I think realistically Leno may be scaled back the next year, but currently I think Heroes will be back (maybe held till mid-season), Parks may return but I think if it came down to it NBC would rather hold on to Community (as it has more potential to grow). Probably, shows will get 13 episode orders with a bunch held till mid-season (and new entries tried at the beginning of fall). I see something like Community, new show, Office, 30 rock on Thursday (or even Community, 30 rock, Office, new show if they are bold!) and with Parks and maybe another comedy waiting in the wings.
I know NBC waited until the last minute to flex the Denver-San Diego game into the Week 17 SNF spot last season. I see at NFL.com there is no Sunday night scheduled yet for Jan. 3 (Week 17).
However, NBC and ESPN both pay for 17 night games. ESPN gets two Monday night games (at 7 and 10:15 p.m. eastern) the first week in exchange for no game in Week 17. NBC skips the Sunday opposite the World Series and gets the opening Thursday night game in exchange.
NBC has to have a Week 17 game (teams to be determined) to complete its 17-game allotment. It’ll be announced next week. If New Orleans could complete a 16-0 regular season, its game at Carolina will likely be picked (Indianapolis has already hit its maximum three SNF appearances). Otherwise, I’d guess the Cincinnati-New York Jets game will be chosen for its playoff implications.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed and hoping that “Community” and “Parks and Recreation” is off the air by season’s end. They’re both awful! It’s too bad because I do like Chevy Chase and Joel McHale (both from “Community”), and Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation). I never exactly understood why “30 Rock” has lasted as long as it has, either. The show has its moments with its lukewarm comedy, but it’s hardly worth the fanfare it has received. The same can be said for “The Office”.
The Jay Leno Show should switch to the weekly variety show format; just like “The Dean Martin Show” on NBC in the 60s and 70s. The Leno show seems to only have enough good comedy for one show a week, anyway. I really like the “Law and Order” shows, but with Leno on every night at 10 PM, I think his show is killing L&O. Furthermore, affiliates from around the country have already complained that the Leno show is hurting the ratings of their news broadcast that follow.
NBC definitely has to clean house. Maybe things at NBC will change for the better if the Comcast takeover is allowed and finalized.
Community and Parks aren’t doing any worse than 30 Rock did in its first season and are getting about the same level of buzz. They also reportedly attract upscale viewers which helps with some advertisers.
There’s a story idea for you guys – upscale viewership rankings and how much it matters or doesn’t.
I don’t see NBC cleaning house, they’re too cheap for that. Even with Comcast in charge. And I have so little faith in their developmental slate that I think that would end in disaster.
That’s the thing about Leno. It takes up a third of the schedule so it pretty much damns NBC to permanent mediocrity. Because they have just enough shows that are doing “eh, that’s all right” and “well, it could be worse…” in the ratings that, combined with Leno taking up a third of the weekday slots, they don’t have a whole lot of wiggle room to make any big changes.
And NBC’s probably fine with that, which is why they went with Leno in the first place.
Oh well, if Community gets a second sesaon I’ll forgive NBC for anything they do.
Dingo, not quite. For the last week of the season, the NFL can wait until 6 days before the game to flex it, and going by the past, that’s what they’ll do to make sure there’s a game with playoff implications.
SonicAD, how is that different than what Dingo said?
I like Communuty, but it won’t hurt too much if it’s gone. Parks and Rec, on the other hand, would kill me if cancelled. For me, it went from being rather mediocre last season to almost perfect in its second season. Long live Ron Swanson!