Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 13, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.53|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.73|
|Law & Order: (P)||0.90|
NBC won the weekly adults 18-49 ratings last week. What? That was the power of vs. the competition airing at least a few repeats during the week. But there's only 2 more SNF games left, and after that, except for the two weeks of the Winter Olympics, the future ratings outlook for NBC is grim.
But that's good news for NBC's marginal shows like Parks & Recreation,and Heroes. NBC's overall 18-49 ratings average will drop like a rock (it's 2.8 now, I could see them averaging a 2.1 for most weeks in Jan-May.) That will make individual show'4s results look a lot better (and not just to the Index, but likely in the eyes of NBC as well). What's bad for the network averages is good for the fans of those shows!
That's not going to help Trauma and Mercy. They're completely underwater and have no chance of being renewed for next season.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.