Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through December 13, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.52 |
| Three Rivers (P) | 0.55* |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.58 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.62 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) |  0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.67 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.84 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.89 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.98 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.04 |
| The Mentalist | 1.07 |
| CSI (P) | 1.09 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.11 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.12 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.16 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.32 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.39 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.49 |
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More than any other broadcast network, CBS has a formula, they stick with it, and as long as they do that few of their new shows are shocking ratings disappointments. But also because of that, shows that just do "OK" have to be canceled to make room for some new shows next season.
The Good Wife and Accidentally On Purpose both are doing a bit below average ratings for CBS. On NBC they'd be stars. On ABC or Fox they'd likely be keepers. On CBS, something's gotta go, and both of them just might be out for next season.
The New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried's low ratings could be tolerated for yet another season if CBS sticks to its goal of a second "comedy block", but don't be surprised if Christine goes and Gary stays.
*Three Rivers is off CBS' schedule and as close to canceled as you're likely to get from CBS. Its Index is frozen at the point of the last week it aired, since it has no announced return date.
Accidentally On Purpose's good timeslot following How I Met Your Mother makes its borderline Index look weaker than it would be were it elsewhere on the CBS schedule. Its prospects for next year are not bright.
In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It's now in significant danger of not coming back.
The Good Wife ratings seem to be settling just on the edge of the danger zone for cancellation. On NBC, it would be a star, on CBS it's borderline.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
*Crosses fingers for HIMYM*
Wait, do you do this different every week..? Heroes is doing worse in 18-49, yet AoP and TGW are lower in your Renew/Cancel index. o.O
Since I’m too lazy to change the channel after HIMYM, I’ve caught a few episodes of Accidentally on Purpose, and it’s grown on me. How likely would it be that CBS would keep AoP, drop Christine, and pair the former with Gary for their new Wednesday night block?
The good Wife is here to stay. Please CBS!
Frick/John, yes, every week, every broadcast network. click the link.
And every show is only competing *within* its network for renewal or cancellation. How Heroes does is completely irrelevant to shows on CBS.
*For every channel, not every week. :redface:
@Frick/John,
Yes, he does a separate one for each network based on the 18-49 average for that network. A 2.5 on NBC will get a higher index rating than a 2.5 on CBS because CBS’s network average is higher
only for ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and The CW
^You mean you aren’t going to start this for all 200+ cable nets?!? That’s just lazy
This index thing is stupid. Anything 10% below a network’s average (or about 0.2-0.3 A18-48 rating points below average) gets the boot?
What if a show’s most recent numbers are growing and above average (more telling of its future ratings) — which I believe is the case with Accidentally On Purpose? Or what if the ratings are +50% or higher than any competitive network shows? Or what if the show is attracting a more upscale audience allowing it to be marketed to additional advertisers?
cbs is planning a criminal mind spin off!!so most likely if it pick it up it would pair it with CM on WED!so there is no place for WED comedy block!
If you read the text, you will discover that an upward trend is indicated by a
(and a downward trend by a 
)
The New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried are WB and ABC productions. The Good Wife and Accidentally on Purpose are CBS productions. That may be a factor in who wins this “renewal” contest.
New Adventures has been on for 5 seasons including this one with about 89 episodes all told. I can see WB making a deal to keep it for a partial season just to break the 100 episode mark for syndication. Wouldn’t surprise me if they tried that. As for Gary Unmarried, it’s a sophomore comedy. ABC won’t stick its neck out to rescue this one.
Really though, I think CBS is waiting to see how they perform against Idol. If these shows stay put or go up, they’re probably safe for the moment.
I hope that The Good Wife will stay. I don’t watch it but I’m glad that Josh Charles is once more a regular on a broadcast TV show!
“Good Wife” and “Gary Unmarried” are definitely worth keeping around. Each are well-written and good chemistry among characters.
Christine and Gary went up against Idol last year (and stayed fairly steady). Is there any reason to think that will change this year?
Timotey, as a Josh Charles fan, wouldn’t you rather have him in a show you actually want to watch?
You don’t seem to be publishing A18-34 data anymore, perhaps it’s harder to come by. Anyway, to my point:
When you did have A18-34 data, HIMYM was doing better in it that Two and a Half Men, and generally did pretty well in that age group, very unlike typical CBS shows. In my opinion, if Accidentally on Purpose keeps significant percentage of A18-34 from HIMYM, I would think it will get renewed. Otherwise, I consider it a goner.
You seem to think that post-HIMYM spot is a ‘prime’ one, but I recall it somewhat differently. First, there was the disaster with ‘The Class’, then CBS matched HIMYM with TBBT and it wasn’t the best match. Now we clearly see that Two and a Half Men and TBBT get along great; I would be really surprised if CBS broke those two comedies up.
Then the question becomes: what would be a good show to pair up with HIMYM? And it seems to me that both shows could be watched by a similar audience; a much younger audience than usual CBS shows.
–Simon
Seriously i give up with this Neilsen ratings bs when crap gets chosen on tv over solid shows how can it be trustworthy?
The biggest thing working against Accidentally on Purpose is the fact that of all of the Monday night sitcoms, it’s the lowest rated. CBS will want to launch at least 1 new comedy next year, and AoP is the most vulnerable. I would say that the only chance it comes back next year is if CBS cancels either Gary Unmarried or Old Christine and AoP gets moved to Wednesdays. I really don’t see that happening, as Holly pointed out both Gary and Christine held up decently against Idol.