Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through December 20, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.51 |
| Three Rivers (P) | .55* |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.56 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.63 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.63 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.68 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.84 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.89 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.98 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.05 |
| The Mentalist | 1.07 |
| CSI (P) | 1.09 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.11 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.13 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.17 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.32 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.41 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.51 |
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There's been some discussion on our site about the possibility that Medium may be canceled. It's true that Medium has done poorly in the ratings this season compared to CBS Fridays last season, but so have its bretheen Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer. But I significantly doubt that CBS would cancel two of its Friday shows in a single season, no matter how far they fall. So, like the joke about the two guys running from the bear, all Medium needs to do to survive for another season is outrun Numb3rs.
The Good Wife is doing a bit below average ratings for CBS. On NBC it would be a hit. On ABC or Fox it would be safe. On CBS, something's gotta go, that puts it on the bubble for next season.
The New Adventures of Old Christine and Gary Unmarried's low ratings could be tolerated for yet another season if CBS sticks to its goal of a second "comedy block", but don't be surprised if Christine goes and Gary stays.
*Three Rivers is off CBS' schedule and as close to canceled as you're likely to get from CBS. Its Index is frozen at the point of the last week it aired, since it has no announced return date.
Accidentally On Purpose's good timeslot following How I Met Your Mother makes its borderline Index look weaker than it would be were it elsewhere on the CBS schedule. Its prospects for next year are not bright.
In a big vote of no confidence, the episode order this season for Numb3rs was reduced to 16 episodes. It's now in significant danger of not coming back.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think ‘The Good Wife’ will go to Fridays at 10 pm, and by seasons end, CBS will dump ‘Old Christine’, ‘Ghost Whisperer’, ‘Numbers’, ‘Cold Case’ and ‘Undercover Boss’.
Dumont, you may be right about TGW going to Fridays, but you are nuts to think that CBS will cancel Ghost Whisperer. It’s their best performing Friday show.
Even though i believe that Numb3rs has gone done in quality the past two years, they have really turned away from what made them interesting which was the moath, now to much character development which I don’t mind, but it is becoming more and more like the other procedural shows. Hopefully the show can last one more year though, bring back what made it great. I honestly believe that Medium has really hurt the cbs friday night lineup last year with FlashPoint there was better numbers. Having two shows with the same premise back to back might be hurting friday nights.
numbers and cold case are 100% goners for next season. Ghost Whisperer will defintely be back next season and it will may be their last next season based on how it does next season. Good Wife will move to Friday to have a leading ladies night of television.
I think this may be the last season for Old Christine (on CBS possibly), despite myself wanting it to be renewed. I think the Mike & Molly pilot will definitely be picked up because it’s created by Chuck Lorre, but it looks absolutley stupid. I mean a show about a couple who have issues with overeating. Take the overeating part out and you got the next King of Queens or something. i dont know much about the show though.
One of my thoughts on next season comedy wise.
Possibly move Gary to mondays to strengthen the show. and Possibly have Mike & Molly paired with Old Christine or another new show. or Mike & Molly on mondays with Gary on Wednesdays with another promising hit comedy. This is all based on the fact that Christine isn’t here next season.
I just realized that Old Christine will be past 100 episodes if it gets renewed for another season, so could this bring CBS more money?!? who knows. lol
@Tony,
CBS doesn’t own Christine, so syndication doesn’t make them any money. On the other hand, if the WB expects to make a lot out of it, they might give it to CBS for a reduced fee (c.f. ‘Til Death on FOX). More likely they’ll try to shop it around, but with ABC getting traction on their comedies this year, they are less likely to pick it up than the last couple of years and Christine doesn’t really fit NBC or FOX.
Ok so I found out more about Mike and Molly. its about a couple who meet at an overeaters anonymous meeting. I thought it was just going to be a couple overeating. lol. this makes more sense. I hope its a success.
As much as I like Numb3rs, the show really does feel like it’s coming to its end, wrapping up plots – like Charlie and Amita, Larry’s teaching. Also, it feels… tired, not as exciting as it used to be, maybe because the writers focus heavily on the personal life of the Eppes now instead of on the exciting cases. So yeah, as much as I like it, it’s time to wrap it up.
Why does Medium’s index keep dropping? Are the ratings from the repeats being figured into the index? Do the networks pay attention to ratings of reruns, especially at this time of year when everything is in repeats?
Funny how CBS aren’t repeating GW.
@Mediumfan,
All in-slot repeats not marked as “special” (by the network, usually for holidays) are included in the season average for the show (and therefore in the index). That usually doesn’t have a significant effect on the index because the season average for the network also includes the repeats. The only time it really matters is if a show repeats more (or less) than the other shows (e.g. Lost and 24 running without repeats) or if it repeats particularly poorly relative to the other shows on the network (so, this would affect a show on CBS more than say, ABC where all the shows get low repeat numbers).
@John/Frick
So? There are enough reruns, + it’s time for holiday movies or something like that. Who will watch how people die and go to heaven on Christmas… and the days around it. I bet that in the February – March break there will be repeats. If there aren’t any basketball, football, etc. games…
And, um… I think Ghost Whisperer is in some danger of being cancelled. Not this season but… maybe next… I hope not. And btw, Seasons 1&2 – high ratings, Season 3 – low ratings, season 4- high ratings, Season 5 – low ratings, maybe Season 6 will have higher ratings… I hope…
*Note: I’m not from the USA, so I don’t now the schedule.
Even though CBS’s numbers on Friday’s may be weaker than before, I think that Medium and Ghostwhisperer seem to be well paired.
David, CBS won’t cancel Ghost Whisperer any time soon, it’s near syndication and it’s the top show on Friday nights
Medium’s been doing badly?
Huh, that’s news to me.
Three Rivers was a good show but on CBS never stood a chance. Half the time Amazing Race ran over into its air spot and it threw everything off and for those that record the show.
What does (P) (S) (F) mean?
Tina:
Look at the top of the post for this sentence:
“Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:”
Explanations are underneath