Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through December 20, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.52|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.73|
|Law & Order: SVU (P)||0.90|
|30 Rock (P)||1.09|
|The Office (P)||1.48|
Last season Chuck averaged a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating including repeats. This season because of the general ratings carnage at NBC, if Chuck can average that same rating with no repeats I think it’s a lock for another season. Seems as easy as falling off a log, but is it?
NBC didn’t air a single new scripted episode last week, so the show’s on the bubble (Law & Order, Parks & Recreation, Community and Heroes) are still right where they were, and the shows that will certainly be canceled Trauma and Mercy are still just as certainly canceled.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating😳 Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.