Chuck’s not even back on yet, and I’m already worried about its renewal prospects for a fourth season. In truth, I’ve been worried about it ever since it was picked up for a third season. Here’s what I worry about:
For NBC, The Renew-Cancel Index Could Be Mostly Meaningless
While historically we find the Renew-Cancel methodology of comparing a show’s average adults 18-49 ratings to the average 18-49 ratings in prime time for the network it airs on an extremely good predictor or renewal and cancellation decisions, it’s problematic for NBC. Why? Because typically networks renew shows that perform better than average and right around or even a little bit below average, while canceling shows that perform more noticeably worse than average. But I’m not sure that works for NBC going forward because the average sucks. So if you keep shows that perform right around NBC’s average, you are still keeping shows that relative to ABC, CBS and FOX are poor ratings performers. Which begs a question…
Is NBC OK With Sucking? And If So, For How Long?
It was clear to me and everyone else, including NBC that it would take a ratings hit by going with The Jay Leno Show five nights a week. Unlike many with “Leno Rage”, I think it’s probably performing more or less in line with where NBC expected it to. And no, I don’t believe anyone at NBC really thought Leno would beat repeats of CSI: Miami, because NBC has access to how CSI: Miami did in repeats. But at least going into the season, Leno could be Justified based on cost and not letting Leno get away to another network. I’m sure the cost angle still holds up, and frankly, I won’t be very surprised if Leno is back next season. But I won’t be surprised if NBC toys with a lot of ideas between now and then, including moving Leno back to 11:30p. As for this season, I think you can expect to see Leno continue Monday-Friday.
Despite unhappy local affiliates, I don’t get any sense that NBC isn’t OK with Leno. However, Mercy, Heroes, Community, Parks & Recreation, the already canceled Trauma and even Law & Order: SVU can’t have executives smiling when it comes to the ratings.
But NBC could very well be OK with sucking and sucking for a little while longer. And the spectrum of possibility ranges from almost completely cleaning house to being OK with another year that isn’t a lot different than this year (only without the Olympics).
Should NBC decide to go the cleaning house route, all bets are probably off as far as how renew and cancel decisions are made.
Don’t Look For the Comcast Deal To Have An Impact On the Fall 2010 Schedule
Barring something miraculous, there is no way that the regulatory approval necessary for the deal between GE and Comcast where Comcast gets a controlling stake in NBC Universal would be approved before the decisions for the fall 2010 schedule are made.
So it comes back to whether or not NBC is OK with the way things are. And despite the opinions of the trade press, people in the industry and hardcore TV enthusiasts it’s not like “OMG NBC used to be SO GOOD. What happened!?” is a big conversation with the masses. Sure, the masses aren’t watching NBC much, but they aren’t thinking about it much either. So the question is, how much pressure is on to change image perceptions?
I could see both a scenario where NBC cares to change its image and one where it doesn’t. “Eh, if they’re going to wanna go crazy with change once the deal is done, they’re going to do that no matter what we do this fall, so let’s stick with the status quo,” has some merits to it. But so does, “Ben Silverman killed us! We can fix this thing though! Let’s try to get out in front of this thing right now and make an effort to really improve the ratings with better programming. We’re not waiting for Comcast!”
Huh!? What Does Any Of That Have To Do With Chuck?
If NBC is ok with the status quo, that’s good news for Chuck should it pull around a 2.4 rating. If NBC decides, “We’re not gonna take it. No we ain’t gonna take it. We’re not gonna take it anymore,” well then, all bets are off and that’s not great news for Chuck, even if it is performing near NBC’s average.
Other Stuff That Worries Me: The Whole Subway Thing Is Probably A Bit Overrated and Overstated
I think NBC wound up renewing Chuck for a lot of reasons. I don’t want to belittle the Subway campaign, it’s a cool story and I’m sure it was one factor that played into NBC’s dealings with Warner Bros, but it’s not like Subway is paying Warner Bros or NBC a ton of money. Subway’s big bucks are spent on things with huge viewing like NFL football. None of the new Chuck promos are promoting Subway. This is not a “Chuck, brought to you by Subway and the $5 foot long” situation. And while its great Subway likes Chuck and while it’s great that it turned into a good PR moment for Subway, Chuck and its fans, I worry some people will think “as long as Subway is happy, it doesn’t matter what the ratings are!” It could be that Subway was a big deal to Chuck, but Chuck isn’t that big of a deal to Subway.
Final Thoughts? C’mon! There Will Be Many More Thoughts!
A pet peeve of mine is people who close posts with “Final Thoughts” when it’s obvious that those aren’t going to be anything close to final. There will be a lot more thinking on Chuck. I’m very much looking forward to its return and I am pretty happy that it got additional episodes ordered even before it aired. But when it comes to worrying, if it’s just getting the same ratings as last year, I’m going to worry anyway! Even if the Renew/Cancel Index says I shouldn’t! Sure, if it pulls a 3.0 rating with adults 18-49, you will see the “Why I’m Not Worried About Chuck!” post. And if it pulls another 3.0 I will be writing “Why I am Still Not Worried About Chuck, ” etc.
That is not to say that Chuck needs to pull a 3.0 to return, only to say that if it does pull a 3.0 it will definitely return! But if it pulls its average 2.4 from last year, or worse? I’m still worried. And will be until the fall schedules are announced.
But Really, Don’t Worry - Just Enjoy The Show!
The fate of Chuck won’t keep me up at nights. I have almost 20 new episodes to look forward to, and I’m looking forward to them and will enjoy each episode (provided they are good). I won’t be thinking “Damn, I would really enjoy the hell out of this show if I wasn’t so worried about it being cancelled! But because I’m worried, I can’t even enjoy the show!”
If you are a Chuck fan, you shouldn’t be thinking like that either.
I’ll always say a smart fan worries about a show running too LONG. But understood, Chuck fans have never had much reason to worry about that.
Chuck is teh Bad Sh0w mmm k? It no got me not like so bad
everyone agree wit me
With all the posts on here about Chuck I’m going to watch it this season. That’s the good news. The bad news… I’m 61 so I’m outside the demographic.
Sorry about that.
Wasn’t there something about prior episodes are going to be shown in a marathon somewhere. If so, please post so I can get an early start!
love chuck , it better not get canceld
There will be a marathon on syfy channel the friday before I believe.
I’m going to enjoy the show when it comes back and I’m going to enjoy each episode more than I enjoyed all the seasons of Survivor, ER, and Murder She Wrote combined! Take that trolls!
AzTop:
Chuck marathon on Syfy is on January 7:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/12/17/syfy-celebrates-new-season-of-chuck-with-eight-hour-marathon/
Rob – how many trolling posts do you allow a person? There is a little pisser here who has gone way past an acceptable limit.
Your concerns about the landscape of NBC prime time scheduling are well founded. Not just for Chuck but for all their shows.
One factor that you have not touched on, and admittedly it is not a ratings issue but a philosophical one, is that Chuck is the type of show that Gaspin is behind. So Chuck making the average could be taken better than a darker show with the same ratings.
Of course, a 3.0 rating will make further seasons a slam dunk. Here is hoping the new dynamics of an active Intersect and the history of shows finding an audience in their third season auger well for the show.
It would be interesting (though probably way too much work) to see an NBC renew/cancel index where Leno is removed from the average. See if that changes things at all. It’s probably not worth doing now, but if NBC does decide to go for the clean-house strategy (pleasepleasepleaseplease) it might be a fun summer project to see if things fit in the index better without Leno.
@AZTop
The Chuck marathon will be on the SyFy Channel on January 7th, and will show 8 key episodes to get you up to speed.
I think for the most part we could be pleasantly surprised by Chucks return. Fans have been waiting a while. Hopefully it gets a lot of ads during the Olympics. I’m not too worried about this one getting canceled. Not with the likes of community lurking on Thursday nights. I’m a huge fan of NBC going with a major over haul. However, I’d urge them to keep a show like Chuck for continuity. It’s been on for four years let it be. Maybe move it to Thursdays. I think it would be a good fit with The office and 30 Rock. It’s time to shake things up at NBC.
It’s been on for four years let it be.
Not quite…
olddarth, what history of shows finding an audience in their third season is that? With the exception of NCIS, there hasn’t been any show on broadcast TV in recent years that has grown that way.
Thanks for the info on the marathon, I have set the DVR! Perhaps I shouldn’t even bother as I have been claasified as a troll.
The Office comes to mind.
Why does everyone assume that any post calling someone a troll is directed at them? Do you perhaps feel you’re guilty of trollish behavior, despite no one calling you out on it?
(The troll comment, I’m sure, was directed at pisher.)
AZTop,
Also, for more Chuck chaos, episodes 7 to 13 from first season are available at the WB website and 2nd season episodes 13 to 17 (for 4 more days before expiring) as well as the pilot are currently up for viewing at Hulu (and probably NBC itself, did not check). That’s plenty of episodes from both seasons of Chuck to prime you for the pending marathon.
Not you AZTop, pisher is the culprit in question.
BTW I am outside the demo too. Love the show. Hopefully you will too.
I have decided to watch “Chuck” as my new show, and I do not believe in worrying! I have done my best to not worry before, and so far that attitude has (mostly!) done well for me! Don’t worry, be happy! The sun will come out tomorrow! Etc.!
Dollhouse! Dollhouse! Dollhouse! Dollhouse rules! “Chuck” also rules! Dollhouse!
I have decided to watch “Chuck” as my new show, and I do not believe in worrying!
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Best Christmas present ever!
Will you remain Joss’s Biggest Fan or will you switch over to Josh’s Biggest Fan (Showrunner and co-creator Josh Schwartz who is also showrunner for Gossip Girl)?
It’s worth watching the rest of the season 2 at some point as well (way better than season 1, which was good but not great). That marathon hits the important overarching plot eps, but some of the best season 2 eps were the standalones in between.
In particular, the SyFy marathon doesn’t have the episode “Chuck Versus the Best Friend” which first introduces the glory of Jeffster!.
Also missing are “Chuck Versus the Cougars” and “Chuck Versus the Delorean” (Sarah backstories), “Chuck Versus Tom Sawyer” (er, it’s just funny and involves video games and Jeff), and the mini-arc about Jill.
I’m up for it. I like good television.