Ad Week has an interesting (and long) look at what to expect in 2010 that includes a bit of a look back at 2009. It covers more than TV and breaks broadcast, cable and local up into different pieces, but there was one portion of the broadcast coverage that really caught my eye:
Only NBC has struggled with its new shows this season, including its move to put Jay Leno on five nights a week at 10 p.m. But one buyer, who did not want to speak for attribution, says Leno is performing at about the ratings NBC sold it, so there were no overblown expectations.
“NBC may have hoped that it would do better, but advertisers are getting the ratings they bought,” the buyer says. “NBC did not sell us a false bill of goods.”
Still, NBC needs to get its content house in order, and quickly. “We have supported NBC, but they do need to come up with better content down the road or else eventually they will start to see our investments in their network decline,” says one buyer.
Another positive for the broadcast networks is that many advertisers are starting to believe that delayed viewing via DVRs is not as disruptive as originally thought. While media buyers won’t acknowledge that publicly, privately they say that unless an advertiser, say a retailer, needs next-day business, delayed viewing is not the ogre that it was originally thought to be.
I think I can speak for Bill too when I say the Leno tidbit doesn't surprise us at all. And I agree with it completely. NBC probably did hope for better, but it was always selling publicly (and apparently to advertisers as well) more realistic expectations.
The last paragraph cited above is part of the propaganda coming straight from the TV networks. Even Nielsen is getting into the game with Nielsen Media chief Susan Whiting saying things publicly like DVRs aren't the devil everyone thought they were, and that it turns out they are more friend than foe.
While spin from networks (and since the networks are Nielsen's biggest customers, Nielsen) doesn't usually bother me, the spin here is aimed at perpetuating a myth that commercials aren't skipped during DVR playback. Though that's not precisely what Ad Week is saying here, unintentionally or otherwise it still perpetuates that myth.
People With DVRs Skip Most Commercials During DVR Playback Most of the Time
According to every shred of data we've ever seen, most commercials are skipped most of the time during DVR playback. As more people get DVRs, the problem gets bigger, not smaller. But the good news for the networks is that most people still don't have DVRs.
Advertisers might have feared DVRs as disruptive, but the real fear of that lies with the networks (because that's where the disruption of business models is actually occurring). Mostly the advertisers just didn't want to pay for people who skipped commercials. They also really didn't feel like paying for delayed viewing of the commercials and with the C3 commercial measurement (live commercial viewing + 3 Days of DVR Viewing) they are getting almost entirely what they asked for. They do not pay for people who fast-forward or skip over commercials within 3 days, and they do not pay for any of the commercial viewing beyond 3 days.
There's a big difference between: "Nobody skips our ads" and "ad skipping isn't hurting our campaigns"
The advertisers seem happy so long as they are not paying for people who didn't view the ads, and there are more and more of those people every day -- a real problem for the networks, but apparently not a big deal to advertising itself. Though that may well be good news for the advertisers it's not good news for the networks and don't believe anything you read to the contrary!
I'm sure you you can find media buyers who would publicly go on record to say that DVRs aren't hurting their ad campaigns. But what you won't find is any sane media buyer who would go on record to say that their ads aren't getting skipped by DVR viewers. Because other than in PR manufactured by the networks none of them exist.
Ok heres my soulution: I think The Jay Leno show is good but not for NBC. I think NBC could do wonders ratings wise if they added 5 new shows during the week in the 10 pm time-slot. As for The Jay Leno show? I think he should be moved to FOX and The Jay Leno show can become a Late-Night show 5 times a week and perhaps get better ratings on FOX.
Robert – I agree with all that you wrote. The bill of goods sold to buyers (via Leno and other lagging shows) has been met but I think as written, if NBC doesn’t come up with viable commercially seductive new shows to reel and keep viewers, they are up a creek w/o a paddle.
Also, I’ve had dvr’s in my houses for several yrs. now. I always skip commercials, even if I get up to do something-I hit the 30 second button until the commercials are done, then hit pause as the show is about to pick up again. I’m commercial intolerant.
Happy New Year, btw
Yes, but if you are zapping through the commercials and watching for the content to come back you are actually watching some of the commercials, just not as thoroughly as you might if you just sat there. I have “seen” lots of commercials in real time, only to actually see the ads months later. Really doesn’t matter whether I zap it or “watch”
Catherine,it does matter (not for you, unless you’re a Nilesen home, but still…):
- if you ZAP it, the advertisers do not pay for it. The TV Networks would like to get the advertisers to pay something for this, but for now, the advertisers do not
- if you don’t zap it, the networks DO get paid
- some people (albeit a small minority) don’t fast-forward, they program their DVR remotes to skip over chunks of time (usually 30 seconds) automatically.
“Only NBC has struggled with its new shows this season”
Really? ABC has had a few new shows go into the dustbin already (Eastwick and Hank, anyone?). Maybe if they had said “ALL OF its new shows” that might have been a bit more accurate.
As to the DVR commercial skipping spin, you are right to point out the silliness of the claims made by the parties above. I don’t know why they don’t also tell us that the Chuck cast is going to do a 45-city tour on Amtrak with a unicorn driving the locomotives while announcing they’ve been renewed until 2018. It’d be just as believable.
Speaking of commercials, nice thing about Hulu, they have these nice little dots where you can point and click the mouse to return to a segment of the show. I mute commercials when they come up, close my eyes and meditate, or get some water, or do something else, and come back to continue watching. If the show is already running (and it often is) I just click the dot and it’s restarted. They might change that down the road but, for now, it works for me, and no commercials watched or heard. Like JanieJones, I do not care for commercials — have not been influenced to buy anything from them for years, and I rarely find them amusing these days so I just as soon avoid them.
Nightstar, angst about media coverage a la “Only NBC has struggled with new shows” is more up Bill’s alley than mine, but I think the intent there was “Only NBC has struggled COMPLETELY with its new shows” which is true.
Well, not to go against the grain here, I almost always fast forward the commercials. But… there are some ads that somehow grab me even though I am fast-forwarding and I immediately stop rewind and watch them sometimes repeatedly. Although I fast-forward through most of the commercials I have probably seen all of them not in fast-forward mode and I do have favorites. So, even when I see them FF I remember the content. I don’t know how common that is though.
Question from the article
quote
“Upfront spending cancellation options for Q1 2010 were exercised at extremely low levels, and with demand for scatter inventory high, scatter pricing is running at double-digit increases over the upfront. That, too, is expected to continue at least through March.”
OK, I think I know what the upfront is (When buyers buy the commercials long before the show airs – right?) But what is “scatter” in this context? Is it just the same as spot pricing?
Most of the people bitching about Leno have never watched the 10:00 offering. My advice to them is to watch the show for the remainder of its run.
zeker, scatter and spot are basically two names for the same thing. Its the market for ad slots left over (or held back from) the upfront sales which for broadcast networks begin in May (but can extend for months).
just for the record, when the networks are not counterprogramming themselves into oblivion (aka Monday nights) I sometimes watch commercials on my DVR.
They just have to be good ones. Or interesting. (though the worst thing they don’t have going for them is that they are louder than the shows. I skip just for the volume factor)
Our DVR is likely uncountable. It’s homemade using mythTV on a Linux box (i’m a couch potato, my brother is a geek)
It was set specifically for a regular fast forward to go 28 seconds ahead, on the theory that it would take 2 seconds to determine whether you actually wanted to watch the commercial or not.
On rare occasions, after watching the shows, and wanting to delete them, I cut the commercials out of the shows, and keep the commercials.
When I’m in a hurry (Mondays), I hit 3, right arrow.
When Chuck and Grey’s Anatomy are on, I watch live on the digital, HD, whatever, channel which i cannot record, while recording on the regular channel.
I’m not the ordinary viewer, of course.
All aboard the tvbythenumbers Jay Leno train. Now departing from NBC’s lap. Final destination: Fourth place in May. Yes, I have watched Jay, and no, it’s not that great. I only watch the rare, small portion to see someone of particular interest, like Sandra Bullock. NBC has gone from Must-see to quick cover your eyes to prevent permanent damage. Not the overused “Leno Rage”, just good taste and good business sense.
What is differentiating DVRs from VCRs? That “R” in “VCR” stands for “recorder”, same as “DVR”. Time shifting didn’t start with the “DVR”. I’ve been doing it since the 80s. DVRs have made it much more simple, but the end result is the same. That fast forward button worked the same on VCRs as it does today on DVRs. Heck, I had one VCR that would auto detect the commercial break, black out the screen, then fast forward automatically….
I’m not saying I think the comments about DVRs not being harmful to advertisers sounds right, but it always sounds like this is some new event to me when it’s been going on for quite awhile… Or did very few people record with VCRs? Maybe that’s the case. Not too many people have DVRs, yet I don’t see blank VHS tapes being sold at Best Buy anymore….
OK, how’s this fit into the puzzle?
Almost none of the shows I download by torrent have had their ads intact. In fact, it’s like a bolt of lightning to see an ad anymore.
I thought they were going to an encapsulated ad campaign (Like for Saab in Burn Notice) so this wouldn’t be an issue.
A lot of attention is being given to the ability the DVR has given us to fastfoward through commercials. But even before I had one, I didn’t really watch them. Maybe I flipped through channels (often to something without ads like TCM), maybe I got up and did something else, but I rarely sat in rapt attention and watched commercials. It’s just too boring.
On the other hand, I don’t really hate ads; I hate reruns. I think most people are the same. Think of how many people treat the ads in the Superbowl as a highlight of the evening. That’s because most of them are running for the first time. But even the funniest, most original ad you’ve ever seen in your life is only going to be amusing for a handful of viewings. And watching a lame commercial for the 54th time is excruciating.
My DVR has a commercial skip feature, which moves forward in one minute intervals. Almost every commercial break is at least three minutes long, so when a break begins I instantly hit that button three times and then usually have to FF through one minute of programming or less. RARELY, I’ll have to back up to the return point of my program. Thus, I never see at least 75% of the commercials in a program I’ve recorded.
TV broadcasters, networks, et al, have brought this scenario on themselves through their greed. A typical one-hour program contains slightly more than 40 minutes of content; they plaster additional programming ads on the screen during some (or all!) of that 40 minutes. Except for an occasion such as the Super Bowl, the commercials are generally NOT entertaining or interesting, and are repeated “ad nauseum” (pun intended), frequently w/in the same commercial break. Watching a sporting event, an auto race, or any other live event is more challenging than ever because of the bloated approach to programming — the pre-event hype, the TV time outs, the endless halftime shows, etc., all designed to stretch out the program and sell more commercials during the highly rated event. How much money do they need? The answer, as always: MORE.
I actually am upset if I watch a show live. I use my dvr constantly. If I am watching a live show, I start it, pause it, wash dishes or something for 10-15 minutes, then go back and watch on my terms (skip commercials, ff thru uninteresting news segments, etc.).
And the DVR is priceless when it comes to sports, especially the NFL.
But, I must admit, I skip through commercials at a speed I can still comprehend the ad (double or triple speed). So, the ads still go through my eyes and mind. And sometimes I stop to watch the commercials, particularly ads during NFL games (many are quite entertaining, especially to Bud Light “Too Light/too heavy” ads).
I refuse to watch commercials unless forced. Besides the annoyance I personnally feel that excessive commercials are dangerous to people’s well being. We are on info overload. We do not need to be subjected to millions (yes millions) of commercials per year. Heck, you can’t even see the credits fully at the end of a show anymore and they’ll stick blurbs up on the bottom 5th of the screen while your show is airing. It’s utterly ridiculous. Years ago there were only 8 minutes of commercials per hour. To me anymore than that per hour (definitely more than 10 minutes per hour) are disgusting and a waste of our time which is of great value. Most commercials are either lies or are trying to convince you to buy a product that you don’t want or need. Even worse these days are the infomercials that scam artists have on TV channels which seem to be in abundance these days.
While I do think that there are a few entertaining and informative commercials – most I consider poorly made and of no interest. If I am watching something live, I either switch channels when a commercial comes on or mute it until my show is back on.
While I agree that most DVR viewers probably skip the ads, I also think that most live tv viewers also find ways to skip the ads, whether by changing the channel, picking up a magazine, or leaving the room for a bathroom break. Overall, it’s the folks who are actually willing to watch the ads that probably watch them, regardless of whether it’s DVR or live. That being said, I would expect this audience segment is probably larger among live viewers than among DVR viewers (since DVR viewers are a self-selected subgroup that is probably more intolerant of ads than is the general population).
Since we are on the subject of DVR viewing and commercial skipping, I want to throw out a question: Does NBC put a “bug” into their programming somewhere in the delivery line to deter fast forwarding through commercials. I DVR a handful of NBC shows a week. When I watch said programs and attempt to fast forward through a commercial, the recording will automatically jump to the end of the program. When I rewind, the recording will jump to the beginning of the program. This is very irritating, and virtually ensures that I do have to watch the commercials as I am discouraged from using the fast forward and rewind buttons on my remote.
Does anyone else out there have this problem? I am not crazy, nor am I a conspiracy buff who sees UFO’s. But I have noticed this problem repeatedly ever since I have had a DVR–about two years–and ONLY on NBC shows–primarily noticeable during the hour long programs like Heroes. Does such a technology actually exist? If so, why is NBC the only one using it?