Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 3, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.67 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.67 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.76 |
| Community | 0.82 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.90 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.94 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.13 |
| The Office (P) | 1.54 |
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Since there have been few new episodes aired in the past two weeks, I thought it would be a good time to review NBC's mid-season scripted show situation this year compared to last year.
Mid-season 2008-9:
- 3 shows canceled (My Own Worst Enemy, Lipstick Jungle, Crusoe)
- 4 more shows ultimately canceled (Life, Knight Rider, Kath & Kim, My Name is Earl; plus ER which finished its run)
Mid-season 2009-10:
- 1 show canceled before it aired (Southland)
- 1 show canceled, and then received an order for 3 more episodes, yet certainly doomed (Trauma)
- 1 show in significant danger (Mercy)
- 3 shows in some danger (Parks & Recreation, Community, Heroes)
NBC President of Primetime Entertainment Angela Bromstad indicated in the past week that she's looking to "essentially rebuild the schedule", but that Law & Order fans can rest easy, its coming back, and it seems likely that The Jay Leno Show is too.
"Rebuild the schedule" sounds like a lot more than just "cancel Trauma and Mercy", particularly with the Law & Order news and Leno hint. Although I wrote this post headline to provoke people, I may have been more right than I thought!
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I think what they WANT to do is completely different than what they are GOING to do.
I bet they want to clean house, but their failure to ditch shows that hurt more than help will probably mean their schedule might not look much different next fall.
I’m guessing Heroes is out the window. The “Rebuilding the schedule” thing clinched it.
I wonder if NBC is considering a real makeover. Emulate Fox and turn over 10pm to locals for news. Put Leno on at 11:00 and move The Tonight Show to midnight.
NO NO NO. This is NOT the way to go for NBC. Trauma and Mercy are good shows and the way to solve their ratings problem is to simply just change their nights. If you want to “rebuild” they will simply have to do away with leno show and sign on 5 new shows for the 10:00 hr. And like i said in the past The jay Leno show can move to FOX and be at their 10:00 hr. Problem solved.
Not to quibble, but does Southland count as a cancellation for NBC this year or last. It was not cancelled last year, it was on the schedule, but didn’t see the light of day.
NBC should have never canceled Las Vegas. Heroes even though is a lot better this season as opposed to the last two years basically only has one year left in it. Both Law and orders will stay on just because of the name, and getting that 21st season, but going to have to admit this year has been more interesting then the past 5 combined, so I think it does deserve that record i suppose. Some good shows get canceled every year, and yet really crappy and poor quality shows seem to stay on such is life i suppose.
ken, another omission on my part! I will edit it in.
Bill, do you think Trauma and Mercy should be cancelled? Because i DONT!
Sharon Stone coming to SVU. Now that’s a good step towards rebuilding.
In the same article as the Bromstad quote, Zucker said: “The problem is you can’t turn it around in a day. It takes time.” That doesn’t suggest they’re going to blow up the schedule. But it will depend on how the mid-season shows fare, and how good NBC feels about the pilots. Plus, if the network wants to be more colorful, sunshine and rainbows, I’d expect another hour of sitcoms next season, which would bode well for “Parks” and “Community.”
Unless NBC-Universal is making a boatload of money off Heroes DVD sales, I can’t see them keeping it. Its ratings are already at 2.2/2.1, and they’re not going anywhere but down. If I was NBC and had to choose between Heroes, Community, and Parks & Rec, I’d pick one of the two comedies, since they must cost less and comedies at least have the potential for growth.
toby jones, because of their ratings they will certainly be cancelled. They “should” from a business perspective. Creatively, I have no opinion.
SVU and the original L&O deserve their 10pm timeslot back.. Bleh.
J.R. Herbaugh, indeed that interview is quite open to different interpretation (likely one of the objectives). “Can’t turn it around in a day” can mean many things, including what you suggest. It can also mean “we’re keeping Leno while we try and fix the rest of the schedule”, it can also mean “We’ll probably suck in the ratings again next year too”.
Bill, your the best! You write great posts for the site, and your not biased! I think it’s great when you do actual reporting instead of an opinion. This site is for predictions of shows getting cancelled or renewed, and a site of ratings for network and cable channels.
But in my perspective, I think NBC will end up cancelling the shows, they may be good, but the ratings aren’t. They have to look at the facts and see what’s best for them and revenue. NBC might cancel Mercy, and possibly some other shows. The way I see it, NBC has to be more colorful, like their slogan. They need to be more diverse and not have the usual. The mockumentary format worked for The Office, and it does well with Parks and Rec, but I think they should just have 1. Add some sitcoms, some good, different dramas, not the usual criminal or medical dramas, (there’s enough of those on TV) and add a competition show that makes sense that will have people talking about and maybe start some type of following online through voting. But to your question, yes, they probably will be canceled.
They should keep all the comedies, Chuck, and both Law & Orders. Beyond that, at least get creative and move some things around.
I doubt Heroes will be cancelled. It’s just under the “likely to be renewed number”, it’s “produced by the network’s production company”, it does well overseas & in DVD sales. If they could just figure out a way to keep it from being pirated (it’s the #1 most pirated show).
I won’t be surprised the only shows coming back is BL and Law and order, and The office maybe Leno
Which I have to admit is pretty much NBC
^^You’re forgeting 30 Rock.
You forgot MEDIUM was canceled as well last May.
CBS may have picked it up, but as far as NBC is concerned they did decline picking up another season.