Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 3, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.64 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.90 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.98 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.99 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 0.99 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 1.08 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.43 |
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Since there have been few new episodes aired in the past two weeks, I thought it would be a good time to review CW’s mid-season scripted show situation this year compared to last year.
Mid-season 2008-9:
- 2 shows canceled (Easy Money, Valentine)
- 3 more shows ultimately canceled (Everybody Hates Chris, The Game, Privileged)
Mid-season 2009-10:
- 1 show canceled (The Beautiful Life)
- 1 show in significant danger (Melrose Place)
Fewer moving parts in the CW's lineup means far simpler comparisons to last season. Just as Privileged was last season's new fall ratings loser that hung on into the spring, this season it's Melrose Place. Their fates will be the same.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Smallville is moving on up.
Smallville will be back next year, MP will not.
look how smallville is climbing up on the chart technically is the third there….
As long as my girl Aunt Becky on 90210 stays alive I’m happy.
supernatural is still up at 2, which is good. plus its being syndicated on tnt right now that should help some
SMALLVILLE can be considered 3rd!!! Because OTH and Smallville both got .99′s…!!
Had Smallville had it’s original Thursday @ 8PM slot, it would have been one!! ^^
Anyways, I’m proud that it’s beating Gossip Girl (aka stupid girl), 90210– STUPID REMAKE, and Melrose Place.
However, after Absolute Justice Premieres, I wouldn’t be surprised if Smallville overtakes Supernatural!
I know CW won’t let it go, but Smallville needs to go.
Not sure I think this is likely, but do you think the CW execs would renew “Melrose Place” simply to add inventory? It seems like the whole network goes dark for weeks at a time.
“Melrose Place” is an a) well-known brand with a b) fairly advertising-friendly star.
Does anyone else foresee the network renewing the show for 13 eps as a safety net just in case it has another “Beautiful Life” on its hands next year?
Even a mostly consistent 1.0 in the demo (on its good days when paired with “90210″) is better than an even worse stinker.
Gee, If only CW had ordered another show back in may as a replacment incase TBL and MP bomb.
I’m happy to see Smallville go up it’s the the best show on television
SMALLVILLE, after absolute Justice (Which I will make popcorn and drinks and I will watch it right when it starts the whole 2 hours as it is the best show ever) Smallville will kill VD and it will more then absolutly get a season 10 renewal.
Brad, U have no taste in shows Smallville is in its ninth seasons and still doing great even on fridays (the worst day television shows).
Smallville should definitely be up above One tree hill. Check how much viewers they both have.
Quality wise, MP is no Privileged. Although things get better after Heather Locklear shows up. My prediction is that the CW will order another season of MP (13 eps) to save face. The premiere rating (1.2 A 18-49) suggests that MP was DOA/Dead on Arrival.
I like the new MP. It was smart to dump Ashley and that dude. Neither could act, but he had potential. It shouldn’t have returned without Heather Locklear. Once she arrived the entire cast upped their game, and the show has become a guilty pleasure, but it was too late.
Life Unexpected looks promising. It’s a good cast. The network should really get rid of OTH, GG and MP. Return to the WB origins. Part sci-fi/fantasy, part soap and part dramedy.
I love Colin Egglesfield, so I’m sad that he will be leaving. It would be interesting if the old hags like Heather/Amanda Woodward etc are put against the new kids err bitch on the block (Ella etc). Just sayin’ (my the best bitch won).
What about Reaper? The CW are so stupid for cancelling that show as it was rating pretty well for them. They could’ve teamed it up with Smallville! Dawn Ostroff is such an idiot.
MELROSE PLACE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A GONER BUT ITS INDEX IS HIGHER THAN SCRUBS ON ABC..JUST FIVE SECONDS ON THAT…HOPEFUL OPTIMISIM IS KEY..I HATED JOANNA GARCIAS SERIES ABOUT THE TUTOR. IT WAS GILMORES LITE!
@Lucky: You do realise that OTH is a WB original right?
As Amir said, don’t forget about Reaper. That and My Name Is Earl were the most upsetting cancellations for me last year.
REAPER didnt perform well even in A18-49!if im not wrong last season it had an average of 0.8 in A18-49!same with privileged which had waaaaay better ratings in w18-34!Plus reaper was produced by ABC studios!!cw didnt have any profit from syndication,dvd sales etc!
Smallville rocks been watching since day one and now the show is better than ever specially now that the got rid of lex and Lana. I will keep on watching till the shows goes off the air and spin off takes it’s place. I enjoy GG and 90210, MP not so much.