Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 10, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.66 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.67 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.73 |
| Community | 0.80 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.89 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.95 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.07 |
| The Office (P) | 1.46 |
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One week NBC's Angela Bromstad talks like she's rebuilding NBC's 8-10pm primetime while Leno holds down the 10pm hour. The following week, it's the Leno-pocalypse.
Now that NBC's freed up 5 more hours of primetime, some very marginal shows like Parks & Recreation and Community all of a sudden look a lot better for renewal. Could Heroes survive to plug an hour next fall? I think it's still hanging by a thread. Although last night's 2.1 rating was grim.
As horrible as the situation is, I've got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Where’s Chuck?
I’m a Trauma fan and I hate to say it but NBC loves Mercy more than Trauma. So Mercy has a huge shot. But who knows.
<3 Trauma <3
I agree with you on Trauma and Mercy but with all those slots to fill now (even though most of them will be with reality crap) I think that at least 2 of the three shows on the bubble will be saved.
Now I don’t watch any of them so I have no skin in the game but I have to think that Heroes will be safe solely due to syndication potential.
That leaves one of the comedies. Community gets slightly better ratings so it gets my nod, canning P&R frees up a new “slot” on the Thursday night comedy block to be launched behind The Office – one of the few places that NBC can actually launch a show from.
And before others mention it – no Chuck on the list?
Do’h, Steven Leitner beat me too it while I was typing :{
Wait, am I late to the party? Since when did Trauma move ahead of Mercy on the index?
I believe this only has data up to Sunday (not last night) and only shows data for shows in their normal time slot, so no Chuck til next week.
These indexes are computed from the numbers from the week before; hence no Chuck.
And Heroes suffered a significant drop last year as 24 came online; I can only assume the same this year, probably dropping Heroes into “Even NBC can’t renew this!” range.
However, I think P&R and Community are still probably doomed, Lenocalypse or not. Those numbers aren’t good enough for NBC to want to keep them on big ad-money Thursdays, which means the only way they survive* is if NBC creates another 8pm comedy block on Monday or Wednesday.. both of which have one or more comedy blocks in operation already.
*Well, one could be kept in reserve as a mid-season replacement. But not both, especially when NBC can whip up Thursday SNLs.
The Chuck episodes on Sunday 1/10 were specials so Nielsen won’t include them in its season average, so to remain comparable neither do I.
The first regular episode, last night, will be included, as will Chuck, in next week’s post. However for those who can’t wait, a 2.6 rating would produce an Index of 1.08 as of last week. A lock for renewal.
NBC has enough new shows scheduled next year that bringing back Trauma, Mercy, and even Heroes will not be necessary, unless Parenthood bombs.
Kindreds
The Undercovers
Love Bites
Chase
Prime Suspects
The Rockford Files
with six new hour-long dramas on the way, Trauma and Mercy are dead.
I’d be interesting to see Trauma or Mercy getting burnt at 10pm in a few months, but I doubt NBC will give them this chance.
i have a feeling parenthood will do well and return next year.
@Tom, while it’s true Heroes dropped with 24, it’s really because Fox programmed Prison Break (Which was doing really bad) in the fall, and then 24 in the spring (which was far more competitive). I don’t think there will be as big of a drop (or any drop) due to 24 this year.
This leno disaster must bode well for Parks & Rec.
Unless, of course, they are just gonna stick with the 4-com night on Thursday. They should really expand to a new comedy block a-la CBS… or two full nights. That’d be somethin’.
I’m guessing Heroes gets a truncated final season next fall.
I think both Community and Parks will likely stay now…I can totally see NBC trying another hour of comedy somewhere else on the schedule. The thing is, The Biggest Loser is firmly entrenched on Tuesday nights, and anywhere else they put the hour would be in direct competition with half hour comedies from CBS or ABC. Maybe Monday at 8 would be the best bet, and then move Chuck to Wednesday at 8 (assumign it gets renewed, which looks optimistic).
No possible way to spin a Mercy or Trauma renewal though, and I still think Parenthood’s a dead duck.
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“NBC has enough new shows scheduled next year that bringing back Trauma, Mercy, and even Heroes will not be necessary, unless Parenthood bombs.”
They’re not going to pick up all of the pilots listed, and after that, at best 2 or 3 of them will be successes. I read that a 20% success rate for new fall series is considered a good year for a network, so the entire schedule won’t be made of new shows.
Gosh, are they ever going to end Heroes? Wasn’t this season supposed to be their shortened final hurrah? NBC really needs to ring in a new era.
I still don’t see how the Leno move helps Community or Parks and Rec. Unless NBC decides to add another night of Comedy the Thursday Comedies are still in the same boat they were in last week. I don’t see NBC doing 2 sitcoms at 10PM so it’s still only going to leave them 4 slots for comedies next fall unless they start a 2nd comedy night, which I think would be a good idea for them to try.
Johnthemon those new shows were ordered to pilots but they have to be seen and nbc wil decide if they want to order them to series.
@Mumbo
It’s actually quite simple:
Tuesdays
8-9pm: Comedy Block
9pm-10pm: The Biggest Loser Night 1 (part 2 same time Wednesday)
10pm-11pm: Law & Order: SVU
@J.G.
I don’t see NBC tinkering with The Biggest Loser, it’s one of their best performers at this point. It’s one of those deals where if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
@Mumbo
I wouldn’t be too quick to judge Parenthood as a dead duck. Yes the odds of it being canceled are higher than the odds of it being a hit. But I would wait to see some data on it before declaring it dead.
@Tommy
What the hell are you talking about? Wait for ratings to judge a shows prospects for renewal? Sounds like a totally unreasonable thing to do if you ask me.