Chuck: So Far, So Good; Not So For Heroes

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 17, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Law & Order (F), (P) 0.54
Mercy (P) 0.65
Trauma (P) 0.67
Parks & Recreation (P) 0.74
Community 0.81
Heroes (P) 0.88
Law & Order: SVU (P) 0.95
Chuck 0.96
30 Rock (P) 1.05
The Office (P) 1.46

So far, so good for Chuck. A 2.6 adults 18-49 rating last week and a 2.5 rating Monday night bode well for another season if it can hold at those levels. Anything less, and let the worrying begin.

Last week I wrote that Heroes’ chance at renewal was hanging by a thread. Monday night’s 1.8 adults 18-49 rating was the scissors. Only a miracle recovery is going to save it for next season at this point.

Now that NBC’s freed up 5 more hours of primetime post-Leno, some marginal shows like Parks & Recreation and Community all of a sudden look a lot better for renewal.

As horrible as the situation is, I’ve got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving:mrgreen: or deteriorating😳 Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Notes:

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

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