Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 17, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.22|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.26|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.76|
|American Dad (P)||0.90|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||1.07|
|Family Guy (P)||1.22|
|The Simpsons (P)||1.23|
I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox's list to the other networks' lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox's case, and the "magic" 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.
Fox will introduce new scripted shows next fall, and they have to find somewhere to put them. Because of that, Fox is likely to cancel or exile to Friday at least one show that hasn't done dreadfully.
Whether So You Think You Can Dance? comes back for one more fall or not (before The X Factor in 2011), my guess is that Fox fills the time periods with an unscripted show(s) next fall.
I doubt Fox will put new scripted shows on Friday. They did it with Brothers, but I doubt that happens again. Friday will be a combination of unscripted or a last chance exile (think Dollhouse TSCC) for Lie To Me or Fringe.
But if Fox doesn’t fill SYTYCD’s 3 hours with reality, then all bets are off, and Fringe & Lie To Me could easily be accommodated in the fall schedule along with new shows.
All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.