Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 17, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.22 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.26 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.27 |
| Fringe | 0.61 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.76 |
| Bones (P) | 0.81 |
| Glee (P) | 0.83 |
| American Dad (P) | 0.90 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 1.07 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.22 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.23 |
| House | 1.32 |
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I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox's list to the other networks' lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox's case, and the "magic" 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.
Fox will introduce new scripted shows next fall, and they have to find somewhere to put them. Because of that, Fox is likely to cancel or exile to Friday at least one show that hasn't done dreadfully.
Whether So You Think You Can Dance? comes back for one more fall or not (before The X Factor in 2011), my guess is that Fox fills the time periods with an unscripted show(s) next fall.
I doubt Fox will put new scripted shows on Friday. They did it with Brothers, but I doubt that happens again. Friday will be a combination of unscripted or a last chance exile (think Dollhouse TSCC) for Lie To Me or Fringe.
But if Fox doesn’t fill SYTYCD’s 3 hours with reality, then all bets are off, and Fringe & Lie To Me could easily be accommodated in the fall schedule along with new shows.
All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Glee should be marked as renewed.
All four animated shows are renewed (Simpsons, Cleveland, Family Guy, American Dad)
Thanks for renewal prods. I have updated the list.
Whoa, quick work. I also vaguely remember something about Bones being renewed. Something about how when it was renewed last spring it was renewed for two seasons.
Here it is
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/05/16/bones-renewed-for-2009-2010-season/18779
I believe Bones has been renewed as well. Is there any reason why they haven’t announced House’s renewal?
I’m pretty sure Bones has already been renewed for at least another season.
Bones color now adjusted as well, thanks. And I believe Hugh Laurie is under contract for multiple seasons, but will look for the post, as well.
They were late picking up House last year, too.
Thank you very much! I’m just a little worried that House’s renewal might somehow get caught up with the whole NBC situation since their under NBCU.
Everyone knows House will be renewed. Right now hoping that both Fringe and Lie to me are renewed, would much rather watch scripted shows opposed to reality crap, but I digress. even though I am not a Fringe fan, I believe the show brings something unique to the table. Hopefully Lie To ME can become the new House, a really enjoyable show.
Lie to Me should get the renewal over Fringe. All due respect, but I don’t think Fox consults your little site to determine if they renew/cancel a show.
3rdrocker, “All due respect, but I don’t think Fox consults your little site to determine if they renew/cancel a show.”
Of course, I’m not an idiot. My objective is not to influence them, but to predict their behavior.
Dollhouse never was pushed to Fridays as “a last chance exile”, it always was on Friday nights. Which, I’m not saying that’s what killed it, it’s a factor among many, but, yeah.
Elie, you’re absolutely right, I mixed up TSCC and Dollhouse. Editing now.
Bill this might be too much to ask but I am color blind and can’t really distinguish the ‘renewed category’ from the ‘likely to be canceled category’ so is there any way you could make the colors in those categories more distinct?
I think the fact that Fox is circling a potential US Torchwood doesn’t bode well for the future of Fringe and at the very least suggests Fox is preparing for a future without it. Of course given that Torchwood likely wouldn’t be ready until 2011-2012 there’s breathing room for Fringe yet, the question is how far can lowered Thursday expectations and Abrams carry this show? As of right now I’m more confident about a future for Lie To Me but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see both shows axed.
On another note assuming Our Little Genius isn’t dead surely that’s going to need a slot come the fall?
Cullen, sadly, I thought that might be the case. I just don’t want to add yet another color for already renewed.
Fringe has got Powerhouse J.J. behind it, the man’s clever and knows how to play his cards in terms of expectations build-up (announcing it would likely get a set end date before even knowing if it gets renewed… hmmm). And the fact they (FOX) are totally ignoring Lie To Me right now is certainly not helping its chances for a huge comeback (when it *does* come back – how about announcing something a little less vague than “late spring” for starters?), but between the two I truly hope Lie To Me does get renewed. Tale of a show with heaps of potential that’s just being screwed over.
One thing that could give — if Fox expanded its prime time. Now that NBC is being rocked with a PR debacle and its proposed 10pm lineup looks exceptionally weak, Fox just might be the network to take advantage. Or is Fox just going to play nice and let NBC (try) and re-establish itself at 10pm and decide not to kick them when they are down? (The viewer habits are trending towards watching shows they TiVo’d earlier in the evening at 10pm.)
Fringe is going nowhere, I know this for a fact. I think Lie to Me is a goner but not sure of what they will do. They have some big plans for Fringe including a game.