Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 17, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.60 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.83 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.89 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 0.92 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 0.92 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 1.01 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.32 |
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Life Unexpected's premiere ratings Monday night (which won't make it into the Index until next week), beat the virtual tumbleweeds of the CW's big mid-season repeat gap, to debut at levels that would put it among the top CW shows for adults 18-49. Where its ratings settle will determine its fate.
And, if to do no more than let folks know who haven't been paying attention, Melrose Place will be canceled at the end of the season.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
If you just delete the entire CW network, would anyone really notice or care?
A bunch of 15 year olds.
It’s sad about MELROSE PLACE – most unappreciated show on TV. I love it. still holding out hope that it’ll find an audience. Considering that most TV is absolute crap and the standards are so low, I’m still shocked it isn’t doing better.
P.S. Do you think there is any chance that the new rebooted MP coming back in March, along with the repeat of the season (assuming new people started watching, not just fans watching repeats), the exit of Ashlee, etc. could save the show? It doesn’t really need that many more viewers?
Curious why the title on the web page tab says “Melrose Place Cancelled, Will 90210, Gossip Girl, Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, Smallville, OTH be renewed or cancelled?”
Highly doubt Melrose is coming back next season, however a lot of people have been saying the since ashlee simpson has left and the show has moved away from the murder arc, that the show has gotten better, maybe MP will defy the odds and come back. Everything else should be safe, not sure why the save, VD, SN, and SV, but hopefully Life Unexpected can grow even more in the next coming weeks and build a fanbase, it really does have that old WB feel to it, a truly enjoyable and watchable series, not many shows like it nowadays.
I’m excited to see where LUX ends up after a few weeks. If it does well, then the CW might become an interesting battleground of script ideologies in the next few years. I think family friendly and glamorous story lines can coexist. I’m not sure they can coexist quietly. Imagine the fun of watching a few LUX style shows go up against Gossip and OTH style shows. Especially with the unusual demographic criteria CW uses in deciding their renew/cancel.
It occurs to me that excitement over such ratings calculations qualifies me as an out an out nerd. Oh well.
RJ, if they got rid of the cw network then i bet either ABC or CBS will take Smallville and Supernatural and NBC will definitly take VD. Why? because nbc needs more scary, supernatural shows and ABC/ CBS both could use a super hero and it could put Supernatural back with Smallville on any night to make the duo team great.
Didn’t Life Unexpected pull a 1.2 for its premiere? How would that put it among the top of CW shows?
Cullen, Factoring out repeats, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating is above every CW show’s average except Vampire Diaries (1.78) and Supernatural (1.24).
Oh thanks for that info that’s rather surprising to hear. If you compare Lux premiere to the CW’s fall premieres its a few ticks lower right?
I hear the next 6 episodes of Melrose Place got great reviews from critics and fans so maybe theres a chance.
CW is already doing contract talks for a third season of 90210 so it’s safe to assume it’s coming back.
@ Brad
I’m not sure contract talks mean a certain renewal. The talks may be starting with the statement “we certainly wouldn’t pay as much as we did for this season.”
Despite the fact that it’s green on the index, I have to believe that any network eyes its worse performer the same way a Roman Emperor eyed an elderly gladiator: with contemplation over how much amusement feeding him to the lions might bring.
Here is my guess for next fall. I believe that the CW will change some things up, maybe even buying Sunday back depending on how well the rest of their ratings are this season.
Monday
One Tree Hill
Life Unexpected
- Combo worked pretty well this week, even if OTH didnt do amazing. I actually think that OTH might be cancelled and if it is, and LUX keeps it up i could see LUX at 8 and a new drama at 9.
Tuesday
90210
(New Drama)- “Cheer,” “HMS”
- 90210 will almost surely get a third season as it is doing pretty well this season however MP will not survive and THE CW needs to try something new.
Wednesday
ANTM
Gossip Girl
-Almost a perfect pair dont know why they are still not together
Thursday
Vampire Diaries
Supernatural
-Working perfect. If it aint broke, dont fix it.
Friday
Smallville
(New Drama) – “Plymoth Rock”
- Friday and smallville were the best thing the CW did, smallville will kick ass fridays for the rest of the season and the CW needs a new sci-fi show to follow it so Plymoth Rock would be great and then when a Justice League show comes about that can replace smallville
Sundays im not quite sure about, i dont think it would be new dramas considering how hard it was for the CW last season.
Sports broadcasting and Conan O’ Brien need to go to this network before CW can do anything else ratings wise.
@ Smallville…
ABC targets a more female audience, and those shows would feel uncomfortable on the network. CBS likes the criminal procedurals and would not take those shows. Plus they are near death anyways.
@Tvfan01
CW needs to be mindful of the fact that whatever goes against Glee is going to get mutualated in the ratings for them.
Hell yeah! Just give Smallville two or three more months, and it will be number 2 on the list!
Aboslute Justice will do at least 3 million viewers… I’m just waiting for the headline here on tvbythenumbers.. “Absolute Justice finishes 1st for CW” .. or a similar headline
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GOO SMALLVILLE! GREATEST SHOW THIS WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN!
People who compare OTH to GG have obviously not watched OTH. The two shows are completely different and an OTH and LUX pairing is the best bet to go for the 2010-2011 season.
OTH has been doing better than a lot of the trashy teen shows on the CW, why would it be cancelled unless the creator and the actors back out?