Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through January 17, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.55|
|Three Rivers (P)||.55*|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.60|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.63|
|Cold Case (P)||0.64|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.66|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.86|
|Accidentally On Purpose (P)||0.87|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.01|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.11|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.11|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.13|
|Two And A Half Men||1.39|
|Big Bang Theory||1.49|
Now's the time of year when the mechanics of broadcast television begin to intrude, once again, on the hopes of the fans of CBS's "bubble" (or worse) shows. CBS will likely debut 4-5 hours of new shows next fall (this fall they had 4.5 new scripted hours, last fall it was 4 hours), and they've got to clear some room.
Three Rivers canceled frees up 1 hour. The other 3-4 hours of new shows will almost certainly come out of the following list: Cold Case, Accidentally On Purpose, Gary Unmarried, Old Christine, Medium and Numb3rs. 3-4 hours of those shows will be canceled. (Of course, if Miami Medical or Undercover Boss do well enough for a fall slot, then even more of those shows must be canceled, but let's ignore that for now)
Make your choices (you can choose any combination).
Your choices are just for fun. Only Nina Tassler's count.
While plenty can change between now and May, my guesses today would be Cold Case, AoP, Christine and Numb3rs.
For all the hyperventilating Medium fans, I still doubt CBS will cancel two of its Friday shows in one season, but Tassler herself seemed to keep that potential open with her recent TCA remarks, so there is at least some danger to the show.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with "plum" timeslots, I think that's hard to make that call at this point in the season. It's likely still a factor, but will have to be an "after the fact" call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.