Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 24, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.64 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.89 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.95 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 1.03 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 1.03 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 1.14 |
| Life Unexpected (P) | 1.33 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.49 |
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Life Unexpected's premiere with a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating beat the virtual tumbleweeds of the CW's big mid-season repeat gap, but last night it fell to a 1.0 rating (1.1 final rating). A post-premiere ratings drop is not unusual, and at that level it would still certainly be renewed, but the problems come if it keeps falling. Stay tuned.
And, if to do no more than let folks know who haven't been paying attention, Melrose Place will certainly be canceled at the end of the season.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Its going to be hilarious if the CW renews Melrose Place…
Does anyone know how LUX is doing in CW’s ‘preferred demo?’
last night a 1.9 w/W18-34, ahead of only Heroes. The Bachelor had a 6.1 rating in that Demo. Life Unexpected premiered last week with a 2.4 in that demo.
Gratzie
Crossing my fingers for One Tree Hill, Lux and Smallville. No need to cross them for MP, I’m a fan and I admit… it’s dead, barring a large up-swing.
Robert, would you be kind enough to enlighten me with OTH’s women demo numbers from last night?
Robert, and heroes did 1.8 W18-34?
I hope so. I really like the show. It’s the only Monday show I watch besides Chuck.
Yay! It is up in the final numbers! Travis Yanan just published it.
Life Unexpected
- 2.166 million viewers
- 1.4/2 HH
- 1.1/3 A18-49
- 1.3/4 A18-34
- 1.9/5 W18-34
SMALLVILLE ROCKS! I heard it’s been renewed along with Stupidnatural!
Anways, Life Unexpected is EXPECTED to fall way below 2 million.. just give it some more time.
Honestly hope LUX survives, it’s different hasn’t been a show like it since gilmore girls and everwood, didn’t watch either, but always a good thing to see something different on television. I think Smallville and supernatural will get one last season to more or less finish both series, everything else will survive, except for MP, but no need to talk about the inevitable.
@Paul,
According to Travis Yanan:
One Tree Hill
- 2.195 million viewers
- 1.5/2 HH
- 1.1/3 A18-49
- 1.4/4 A18-34
- 2.2/6 W18-34
Totally killed LUX in the W18-34 demo.
Anyway, I like LUX. Hope it maintains its ratings. By the way, Robert, or anybody… Is there data for Greek? I want to know how it did in the 10pm slot.
I don’t want Life Unexpected to get canceled, either, so I hope it stays above 2 million.
Why did OTH go down to 2.2 million starting last week? Wasn’t it around 2.6 before the hiatus? Is there new competition in that time slot or does it just prefer to be paired with GG?
@ Serena, Thanks! I’m liking both shows, and also Greek. Wish I had the numbers for you. Hopefully it managed to retain a good chunk of Make it or Break It’s numbers:-)
oddly enough, only CW and NBC haven’t announced any shows to be renewed for next season yet.
“Totally killed LUX in the W18-34 demo.”
Totally?? Killed??? It did better for only 0.3…OTH is here for 7 years, end LUX for two weeks so this ratings are AWESOME!
@John the Mon. My guess is either OTH or LUX get the pink slip. LUX is performing at about the same as OTH with a much lower budget. I think the we’ll get a better idea when Gossip Girl returns paired with OTH. Tuesdays will be 90210 and a new show. Wednesday will be ANTM and a new arrival or either GG or OTH. Thursdays should be VD and a new show, with Smallville and Supernatural capping off the week on fridays.
@Dario, yeah but, OTH held steady from last week, LUX did not. Next week we’ll see, but i expect Lux to slide further.
@Dario,
As a female, it’s my perogative to exagerate
But LUX’s W18-34 demo fell by a large percentage in the 2 weeks.
@Emily,
OTH yo-yos between 2.6 and 2.2 million viewers. Also, it has never been good at getting stable ratings when it has long breaks between episodes.
Life Unexpected went up a little in final ratings.
Life Unexpected
- 2.166 million viewers
- 1.4/2 HH
- 1.1/3 A18-49
- 1.3/4 A18-34
- 1.9/5 W18-34