Related: Serialized Dramas Overwhelmingly Top TV Show DVD Sales in 2009
Related: Mo Ryan from February 2009: Has TV lost its nerve when it comes to complex dramas?
The topic of serial vs. procedural always seems to generate some discussion on our site. For purposes of this discussion please note, the following shows are not serialized dramas, rather they are procedurals with serialized story arcs:
Burn Notice is really as much a procedural as NCIS or The Closer. White Collar, too. Sure, the shows have serial story arcs, but the main part of those shows start and end their storylines within an episode -- the crime/mystery/murder/case/issue of the week.
You can watch any of those shows out of order without being completely lost (Bill will vouch that he watched the first season of Burn Notice almost completely out of order -- the setup at the opening tells you most of what you need to know).
I'm not arguing that you won't miss a thing or two if you watch the shows out of order. But you can catch an individual episode of Burn Notice or House or Fringe and enjoy it even if you don't know the full back story. Try jumping in during the middle of a season of Lost or Damages and it's much harder to enjoy.
Heavily Serialized Shows On Their Way Out at the Broadcast Networks?
The purpose of this post, however, isn't to debate whether Burn Notice and House are more serialized than NCIS. The purpose is whether heavily serialized dramas like Heroes and Lost are on their way out.
Brodacasting & Cable's Marisa Guthrie has a post up titled, "An Entire Genre May Be 'Lost'" (and subtitled: As ABC hit begins final season, serialized dramas are an endangered species).
The article quotes anonymous network executives who rag on Heroes:
[...]serialized dramas, says one network executive, “are really hard to sustain. I have great respect for shows like Desperate Housewives that can keep it going. On the other end of the spectrum you've got Heroes, which is not quite one-and-done, but pretty close.”
One and done, and yet NBC has stretched it for four seasons anyway! Despite its horrid ratings this year, I still wouldn't bet a lot of money it won't be back in some fashion for a fifth season!
A network executive noted that while Heroes inspired a very loyal audience, the series' precipitous ratings decline has been a disappointment. Serialized dramas, the executive says, “are a huge risk. The opportunity for [failure] is greater. We need to get things kick-started. The feeling was rather than try to take a shot on these big arching [series], we can do some really good close-ended dramas that don't have that kind of risk.”
Less Money in Syndication for Serialized Shows
The article notes that while Grey's Anatomy managed to fetch $1.2 million per episode in a deal with cable network Lifetime, shows like Lost and Heroes have only pulled in $500,000 per episode in syndication deals.
Such a big part of the lifetime revenue of a TV show comes from syndication that even if the networks were still enamored with heavily serialized dramas, it's hard to fault the studios if they are inclined to pitch more sitcoms and close-ended dramas. That's the gravy train. It doesn't matter how much I love Lost (I love it a lot!), I totally get that from a syndication perspective, studios want to churn out the next NCIS, more than the next Lost.
Will Cable Become Home to the Heavily Serialized Drama?
The bigger question for me is whether cable will stand by the heavily serialized drama. My guess at least for now is yes. Sons Of Anarchy is FX's highest-rated show this season, and one of the highest-rated shows on cable. It's about as heavily serialized as you can get. Same for Showtime's Dexter, which in its fourth season saw record ratings. And of course, the same holds for HBO's True Blood. Indeed, HBO and Showtime have a lot of heavily serialized dramas.
Still, even on cable, procedural drama are among the biggest hits (see Burn Notice and The Closer). I don't expect that to change, but I also don't expect the short-term flight to procedurals that may happen on broadcast.
Even On Broadcast, It Might Just Be Cyclical -- or Merely Imagined!
Despite the tone of the B&C article, it will be interesting next year to look at the number of one hour heavily serialized dramas versus this season. I'm not sure it will change much. CBS doesn't have any highly serialized dramas. Outside of 24, which may or may not be back next season -- neither does FOX. NBC has Heroes, but that's hardly a success at this point, and Friday Night Lights, which remains due to the deal with DirectTV.
ABC on the other hand still counts heavily serialized dramas among its biggest hits. Sure, Lost won't be coming back, but even if they're down in the ratings, especially with the women's demographics they target, Grey's Anatomy and Desperate Housewives are still ABC's biggest hits. Along with Private Practice and Brothers & Sisters, you can count on them being back next year.
Also, I wonder if at some point FOX, and ABC don't just cede the procedural space to CBS to a certain extent and offer up serialized dramas as counter-programming. As for NBC there are a couple of ways to look at it. Conventional wisdom suggests that NBC will be fearful of taking the perceived risk associated with heavily serialized dramas.
On the other hand, some might argue, "What does NBC have to lose?" Plus, NBC's storied history is deeply rooted in serialized dramas going back to Hill Street Blues. Interestingly, along with St. Elsewhere, LA Law and ER, NBC had cornered the market on shows that walked the line of being almost half procedural and half serialized. The serialized story lines on those shows were much bigger arcs than the likes of Burn Notice or House yet they had case of the week aspects to them in a way that shows like Lost, Dexter and Sons Of Anarchy do not.
For a long time, it was a very sweet spot for NBC.
Related: Serialized Dramas Overwhelmingly Top TV Show DVD Sales in 2009
Update: indeed, an interesting distinction made in the comments from "the demonhog:"
There is also a difference between shows like Grey’s Anatomy and Lost that should be noted. Both are serialized, but only one of them is a “mythology” show. This was summed up well by Lost showrunner Damon Lindelof to GQ:
“There’s a difference between serialization and mythology, though. Like Grey’s Anatomy is heavily serialized, in terms of the character relationships—who’s sleeping with who, who’s angry at who, who’s just been fired. And you have to watch every episode to understand the depth of it. … That’s different from a mythology, where you’re not entirely sure what’s going on unless you have an insular knowledge.”
I agree that cable is the place to air serialized drama – cable’s ratings expectations are much lower, let’s face it.
I don’t like serialized shows. At all. I don’t watch Grey’s, Heroes or Lost. I want a full story told within an episode. Arcs are great, but usually I prefer stand-alone eps.
I mean, I love White Collar but I could do without the Kate storyline. I loved Stargate Atlantis but stand-alone eps like Echoes were the best. Heroes lost me within a season and with Stargate Universe I didn’t even bother once I heard about how serialized it is.
There is also a difference between shows like Grey’s Anatomy and Lost that should be noted. Both are serialized, but only one of them is a “mythology” show. This was summed up well by Lost showrunner Damon Lindelof to GQ:
“There’s a difference between serialization and mythology, though. Like Grey’s Anatomy is heavily serialized, in terms of the character relationships—who’s sleeping with who, who’s angry at who, who’s just been fired. And you have to watch every episode to understand the depth of it. … That’s different from a mythology, where you’re not entirely sure what’s going on unless you have an insular knowledge.”
does anyone know how serialized TV shows fare on DVD vs. procedural? to me it seems silly to buy a whole season of shows that are basically self-contained unless the show is amazing (for me, that would be seinfeld); however, on DVD, serialized TV shows are like the medium’s equivalent of a big novel, and i very much appreciate the opportunities that style presents for developing rich storylines and complex characters. to me purchasing a DVD set of a serialized program like Lost makes more sense than watching it in syndication (unless there’s a marathon).
nope not at all, most networks will still try at least one new one a year, many will fail
Demonhog, good distinction!
I think the problems is not so much single episodes Vs serialized. Lost was a sensational hit the first season because imho they had sat down and figured out a game plan for the whole season. But from season two and onwards it was all a confusing mess of ideas.
But the first season of Lost certainly proved that people want serialized dramas and not just the single episode dramas.
I’d much rather watch a serialized show than standalones. For one, they tend to be a lot more character driven. For another, I love the feeling of always having something to look forward to the next time in the form of a continuing story.
Grey’s getting $1.2 million an episode seems like a reach to me, though–serialized shows don’t tend to repeat so well.
But I don’t think serialized shows are at all “endangered.” There are a ton of them still on the air, many doing very well.
Vincent, that’s a great question! And it sure looks like there is a case to be made that serialized is mo’ better for DVD sales.
For 2009, the top TV SHOW DVDs in terms of estimated revenue were:
True Blood
The Office
Lost
Heroes
Grey’s Anatomy
24
Family Guy
Dexter
Smallville
Southpark
LOST was only available for sale for about 3 weeks in 2009 and it had nearly as much revenue as The Office (which was released in early September).
ABC just launched a new serialized sci-fi drama with V. Thats 2 rating venom genres mixed together and it seems that it works, rating wise.
The big problems with serialized dramas are in my opinion:
a) You have to watch each episode, or you are going to feel lost. But DVR could be the solution. If you cant watch this weeks 24, no problem, just “tape” it.
b) Far less repeat value. While a episode of a good sitcom can be watched again and again and again (with time between it) its far less enjoyable to watch 24 or Lost again and again and again. Sure you might find a new detail, but thats only for the hardcore fans who own the DVD-Box.
c) Quality of writing. Heroes is just bad writing. It started with mystery (some wired-drug-using-painter who portrays doomsday in NY) but today its just crappy character development with lesbo-rating-stunts.
But there is a bright side too. First of all, dvd sales rock for serialized drama. Lost, Heroes, 24 all of them sell very well, because the nature of the show is that you want to watch it all, without waiting for the next week.
But the future may be the hybrid drama, where you have long storyarcs but a “thing” of the week too. Hell, even sitcoms have some serialized arcs, starting with friends but also todays hit shows like BBT, HIMYM have some parts that a serialized.
In my opinion if a serialized drama is written as well as Lost is and most episodes have well crafted “cliffhangers” then the show can be a HUGE success. But the key thing is the show must have a stong hook to keep the viewers interested AND good characters for people to get behind. This is why LOST is so great because it has both in spades.
As long as the idea of the series is original and it has a “hook” to keep everyone interested…I don’t see why a network wouldn’t want to have a serialized drama.
One thing networks might want to consider though is getting a series that will have a set end date like a (3-4 year run). The worst thing that can happen to a serialized drama is that it overstays it’s welcome and it strays too far from “the hook”. This is why it’s good that LOST announced when it’s last season would be a few years in advance. It let the viewers know that there will be a ending and it would be worth it to them to stay tuned to see what happens.
Fringe is hardly procedural with serialized story arcs. If anything it is just the opposite with being a serialized show and having some filler self-contained episodes. The show builds upon a mythology, just not to the same extent as Lost. Many can be self contained, but no more than say The X-Files was, which with the heavy mythology of that show, I would not want to watch many episodes out of order in the series. It is like calling Buffy procedural. Or perhaps calling Nip/Tuck procedural since there is a new patient every episode, even naming the episode title after the individual.
I agree in rather watching serialized than procedural. There never will be another show like Lost. I enjoy getting to know a character and see them grow and actual have a vested interest in what will happen next week, talking about an episode with friends, having a juicy cliffhanger to entice me over the summer. I agree that heavy serialized is like watching a novel play out. If the story was made into a movie, it may feel rushed and choppy. Giving for instance a good villain with a plan is fantastic to watch it play out from the hints at small pieces, having given a reveal that the heroes need to find out for themselves, perhaps an undercover traitor, then anticipating for the big pay off at the end of the season and seeing it come to fruition is something a procedural can never give.
Chris, sorry, but no. Almost all of the Fringe episodes are self-contained. It’s OK if you like the bigger serial arc more than the procedural “freaky case of the week”, but that doesn’t make the show any less procedural.
I find that with the heavy serialized shows if I miss an episode or 2 then I start to loose interest and eventually just stop watching. Heroes, Lost etc are a couple of instance of shows I watched, missed some and then lost interest in.
Now days you can pretty much catch up on-line, (be nice if HULU worked in Canada) with the computer so this may be less of a concern. All serialized shows should make sure that back episodes are available free on-line!
I did not watch the first part of Grey’s for this reason but then they had a “Catch-Up” episode that allowed me to understand the back story and then I started to watch. Of course the stories have gotten ridiculous and I record and watch when nothing else is available.
More serialized shows should have “Back story or catch up” episodes that they run periodically as opposed to putting on episode repeats. This would allow more viewers to understand the show premise and be able to follow the story arcs.
One of the big reasons The Office became a hit in my opinion was because it was so serialized…. at least as much as a half hour comedy can get. The Jim and Pam love story had a great “hook” that kept viewers wanting more and the ratings went up. Without that hook I don’t think it would have caught on like it did. Sad thing is the show has slowly lost that hook and it starting to become a regular comedy now. It’s a good comedy still but I think it is in danger of loosing it’s edge because there isn’t much of a story that viewers can latch on to anymore. They really need to find another “hook” soon!!
I point this out because veiwers LOVE to follow stories that hooks them in and keeps them wanting more. This is why viewers love serialized dramas, comedies and yes even reality shows. Networks would be silly to give up on serialized shows.
Vincent makes a very good point, serialized dramas may not do well in syndication but some of that revenue is compensated by the better DVD sales. Down where I live, seasons 1-4 of Lost still retail for a minimum of $30 a pop where as early seasons of say CSI are in the bargain bin a couple months after its release.
Anyway back to the point, I think all broadcast networks would love to have a Lost, Fox tried Vanished a couple of years ago, ABC has been searching for a Lost replacement for yonks from Day break, The Nine, Invasion and more recently FlashForward, even CBS a conservative network tried Harper’s Island and Threshold a few years back. But none found any staying power, this will only make networks avoid serials and fingers crossed cablers pick up the slack.
I’m a big fan of serials, I’d rather watch paint dry than watch procedurals, but for some reason USA network has me hooked onto their semi-serialized shows Burn Notice and White Collar. Serialized dramas require a lot of thinking/brainstorming and patience rather than the who dun its’, which are easier to follow. Characterisation is also a key in serials. Serials are like an 13/18/22 week journey and it will be an ending of a enjoyable journey once Lost ends.
“But the future may be the hybrid drama, where you have long storyarcs but a “thing” of the week too”.
Sounds like Babylon 5 to me, a science fiction show in the 1990s. It was mostly episodic in its first season, but seasons 2 – 5 were a blend of story arcs and self-contained episodes that, mostly, linked into an over-arching set of stories and themes. It did well for itself in spite of then-heavy competition from other science fiction programs, a tight budget, and having to find another distributor when the original one went out of business. It still managed to be nominated for (and win) awards, including the Hugo Award twice (in the days when big budget movies competed with television episodes in the same category — quite a feat, really).
I don’t think serialized shows will go away completely from broadcast networks. They’ll be like the moon, waxing and waning in appearance at different times on different networks. How fast they vanish depends on the stories and character development — and how well in advance the creators/writers/producers/directors plan out what they want to do and how they want to get there. If any format of television storytelling is unforgiving about sloppy work and unpreparedness, it’s serialized dramas.
Serialized dramas will eventually die out, because of reality TV, we have enough time trying to figure who got texted out of our favourite reality TV show, we just don’t have enough space in our brain to figure out how emotionally dysfunctional our favourite character is, and who he/she is sleeping with. Hybrids will phase their way in, shows like Castle, The Mentalist, The Good Wife and House, where there will be a “case of the week or fortnight” but the main character has their personal issues that they have to deal with. Shows like Prison Break, Lost, Heroes, and The OC are gone. The serialized dramas are now on CW.. in the form of 90210, Supernatural and Smallville.
Look at CBS, the top network, they’ve spawned crime procedurals every which way for the last decade. The problem, I think, is that we wanted so much to have our lives to be like the people in our television boxes, that today, it’s exactly like the fictional characters inside our TV, I’m sure that there are streets around the world which are very much like Wysteria Lane, we don’t find the lives of the TV characters interesting anymore, because TV, which once use to be an escape from our real lives, has become our real lives, so we escape it in crime and legal drama. Ten years from now, everybody is going to be a pretend expert lawyer or policeman, and be able to find, and prosecute a “perp” in 24 hours.
Without arcs(serialization) shows become too dumbed down and formulaic.
Bad news if serialization is coming to an end and case of the week is in.
Guess I will watch less TV.
I tend to take the opposite view to the B&C article when it comes to serialised shows, whilst there might be a drop off next season vs. this season (Lost is finishing plus 24 and Heroes are in danger of not coming back albeit for different reasons) I think we’re entering an age where serialised drama is becoming increasingly accessible. With DVR’s now readily available on top of a growing demand for online viewing be it via Hulu or the networks own sites or iTunes we’re no longer in a position where if you miss an episode you’re screwed. If you miss an episode of Lost this season you can buy it on iTunes or watch it for free via Hulu or the ABC Player and that’s assuming you didn’t record it. The question is whether the networks will take advantage of that and actually promote alternative ways to watch the show. I suspect cable is also much happier with serialised shows because of their heavy repeat cycles, if you miss the original airing there are repeats during the week.
What’s also worth remembering with serialised drama is that when you get it right the audience loyalty is amazing, which is most evident with DVD sales. How many shows could produce seasons as bad as the second and third season of Heroes and still sell that many DVD’s? More to the point how many procedurals can take the audience erosion Heroes has seen and still shift that many DVD’s? The question then becomes do those DVD sales make up for less value in syndication?
Of course there are downsides to serialised drama, their repeat value is poor. The CBS procedurals and comedies see remarkably little audience loss for repeats the same would not be true for repeats of Lost or Heroes. Also let’s not forget that post-Lost has become the ‘death slot’ on ABC and has a successful show ever followed Heroes on NBC? I also can’t remember how the Thursday 10PM slot did after Grey’s before Private Practice landed there but I’m thinking not great, although Desperate Housewives does a decent job of propping up Brothers & Sisters. I guess the message there is that the soapy serials will lead-in well for other soapy serials but the ‘mythology’ shows tend to suck as lead-ins.