Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next NBC Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.56 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.65 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.70 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.76 |
| Community | 0.82 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.89 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.96 |
| Chuck | 0.97 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.05 |
| The Office (P) | 1.46 |
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Now that Parks & Recreation has been renewed for a third season, I don't see how NBC can not renew Community as well. It's got the more difficult 8pm timeslot, and its doing about 10% better in the ratings.
Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they've been all down. Since the new year it's had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0 (prelim). Even for NBC a drama with those ratings is getting canceled.
Chuck ratings continue to skate just on the good side of renewal for the show. Last night's 2.4 rating should be a bit troubling to fans, because I'm a lot less hopeful at a consistent 2.4 than I am at a consistent 2.5.
As horrible as the situation is, I've got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I agree that it would be hard to justify NOT renewing Community, since it has better ratings than P&R. However, it IS NBC. They do a lot of things that don’t make sense?
I never thought I’d see the day Chuck beats Heroes in 18-49 ratings. If anything, you’d think their numbers would help Heroes; but I guess the interest in the show is just gone.
I’d be SHOCKED if they renewed Mercy & Trauma – however, if ONE of them did get renewed, it’d be Mercy. still don’t see that happening, though.
Go Chuck and Community!
I haven’t sat down and watched Chuck yet, but woohoo for Community. That show is amazingly funny, and I wouldnt be surprised if it doesn’t come back stronger than ever next year!!!
No offense Bill, but “P&R got one!” is a downright flimsy rationale. You could easily say “P&R, produced in-house by a producer NBC has a long-term relationship with, got a renewal; this says little about Community, as neither qualifier applies.”
Hell, if anything, the P&R pickup is bad news for Community; unless NBC is creating another comedy block, renewing every existing show gives NBC no options to grow a new hit. Not to mention NBC has known comedies in the works (if not already picked up).
At this point, the best Community can hope for is as a midseason replacement (assuming no additional comedy block).
Tom they will have an additional hour to fill up every night once Leno is gone, so they have extra timeslots available for new 30 minute comedies on thursday if they want.
That’s good to hear. I love all four Thursday night NBC comedies (and Chuck!).
@cb1202: ER, LA Law, and Hill Street Blues occupied Thursday 10pm for the last 25 years; that leaves little to suggest NBC will be moving to a six comedy block next year.
I thought Seinfelds new show was going in at 10:00 on Thursdays?
@tom
You forgot to mention Jay Leno. He is comedy and at 10pm :p
Tom, your reasoning makes sense too. We’ll see how things turn out.
I think a 2nd NBC comedy block would be fantastic. Heck, they could throw in an entirely new comedy NIGHT from 8-10 (like ABC did this year…)and it would probably do as well as what they have done with any of their drama offerings lately.
In fact, the more I think about a whole new comedy night, the more I like it. I know, I know… what night would be good? Well, I think Wednesday would be as good as any. Just because ABC has success with its Wednesday comedy night doesnt mean NBC cant too. ABC’s comedy hour from 8-9 has not had a detrimental effect on CBS’ combination of Christine/Gary.
Even if its not on Wednesday, you cant tell me that both CBS and NBC arnt looking at how decently ABC has performed launching an all-rookie comedy night this season. Even though Hank was a bust, they have already renewed the other 3 for sophomore seasons. Modern Family is an outright success, while Cougar Town and The Middle hold their own.
@val: That’s a little premature–tt hasn’t even aired and you’re assuming it going to get a second season pickup for the Fall?
val, you are correct Seinfeld’s “The Marriage Ref” will air 10-11 Thursdays after the Olympics.
Another option would be to extend comedy night all night 8-11. 6 half-hours in a row. I dont’ remember reading in the rulebook that 30 minute sitcoms can’t air after 10pm.
They are basically already setting the groundwork for that with Marriage Ref. That may be an hour-long reality, but its still comedy, so an extension to the 10pm hour seems like a possiblity for next season.
8pm Community
8:30 *New Show*
9pm The Office
9:30 Parks and Recreation
10pm 30 Rock
10:30 *New Show*
That is assuming, however, that Marriage Ref isn’t a hit (or at least moves to a different slot next season).
But in any scenario, new comedy block, new comedy night, or 3 hour comedy on Thursday, I would LOVE to see NBC get back to its comedy roots/regain its comedy reputation.
@Lurker: True. Personally I think the show sounds ridiculous. It just seems like NBC is willing to do anything out of desperation. I am shocked they picked up P&R and possibly Community now so anything is possible.
I remember back when I first started following TV ratings, NBC had Friends, ER, Frasier, and Will & Grace all big ratings getters…I found an article from 2001 and here are some of the numbers:
Friends: 31.7 million, Inside Schwartz(which only last 13 episodes) 22.51 million, Will & Grace 20.64 million, and Just Shoot Me 18.60 million viewers. What happened to TV watchers since then and what happened to NBC LOL? The Office is their highest rated show and it averages less than 10 million viewers.
Well Tommy agrees with Tom on this one. If NBC doesn’t launch a new comedy block on another night Community’s chances are pretty slim. Like he said, NBC will want to launch at least 1 new comedy next fall, and the odds of them putting comedies on from 10-11 are pretty low IMO. A second night of comedy even if it’s only an 1hr block makes more sense. But if they stick with the current model with only having 4 comedies on Thursdays then Community is doomed.
Tommy, I agree that if they only have a 4-show model again next year Community may not make the cut (or may be held for midseason).
But based on their success (or relative success, i should say) of their comedies versus their drama content (especially among high income households… why would they NOT want to build on that), I think next year will be the year they finally expand their comedy real estate once again.
Otherwise we are going to see a LOT of new dramas next season on the pecock. And that hasn’t worked out so well for the last 2-3 years. If the model is broken you don’t have a lot to lose trying something new… or in this case OLD since nbc used to be comedy heavy.
I can’t believe it, but way back in ’97 NBC had 2 hr comedy blocks Monday through Thursday, and a 1 hr block on Sunday.
How times change.
http://fergusond.people.cofc.edu/bcp/scheds.htm
I just don’t see NBC doing 6 sitcoms in a row. I don’t think it’s even practical. Building another comedy block makes sense.
Don’t get me wrong the128boy, I think it would be in NBC’s best interest to launch a 2nd night of comedy. However I think it would be stupid for them to run a 3 hr comedy block on Thursdays.