Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next CBS Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through January 31, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.55 |
| Three Rivers (P) | .55* |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.60 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.62 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.66 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.66 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.84 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.87 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.99 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.01 |
| The Mentalist | 1.05 |
| CSI (P) | 1.05 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.10 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.11 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.12 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.28 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.40 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.49 |
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Fans of Accidentally On Purpose, Gary Unmarried, Old Christine, Medium and Numb3rs can do little more than stew for a few months (at the latest mid-May) until CBS makes up its mind on next fall's schedule. I don't think any of them will produce any rating results between now and then that are likely to move them off the bubble. There is only one CBS scripted drama debuting in the spring (Miami Medical), and its 10pm Friday timeslot indicates to me that CBS isn't expecting much from the show, but it still would only effect at most one hour of shows if it gets renewed for next season.
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried's prospects. If it drops well below Gary's average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it's a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine's prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.
For all the hyperventilating Medium fans, I still doubt CBS will cancel two of its Friday shows in one season, but Tassler herself seemed to keep that potential open with her recent TCA remarks, so there is at least some danger to the show.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Why was “Mother” put back in Green? It was officially renewed last week!
Hopefully Numb3rs gets renewed for at least one more season, I think it could push for one more, but I suppose it all depends on how Miami Medical does in the time slot. Seeing as The Bridge and Flashpoint look to only start in the summer. Alot of choices to make but considering Fridays as a whole are down, that might actually be in favor for GW, MDM, N3RS.
Numb3rs is gone. And I fully agree that I HIGHLY doubt they’d cancel 2 Friday night shows. That’s a horrible night to establish a show, so it’s better to play it safe than try and build an audience on a new show on Friday; CBS should learn from FOX’s Friday scripted-show mistake.
Yeah, How I Met Your Mother is already renewed, so why the green mark?
I’m really hoping Cold Case doesn’t get cancelled. Does anyone think there’s a hope for the show?
Does anyone think there’s a hope for the show?
I’m quite sure some fans do… But anyone who has any idea how things work and has seen the numbers? No.
Haha, love the picture
You guys are the best!
Damn, 3 and a half months just… waiting?
I hope AoP and Gary get canceled, Cold Case too.
Numb3rs and Medium could last for another year (Medium maybe more).
Christine should also stay – I’d like that show to hit the 100 mark, especially since they’ve been robbed by the strike, and started out as midseason. They are like exactly one season worth of episodes behind the regular schedule!
A little sitcom prognosis:
Monday block – HIMYM, new series, 2 1/2 men, TBBT
Wed block – Christine, Rules – all season long
How I Met Your Mother should have indicated already renewed. Fixed.
no way CBS axes medium after 6 seasons. they will at least give it a season 7 to finsih the show. I dont know what CBS want from friday nights isnt being number 1 in each timeslot of friday night not enough?
By the end of the season, Old Christine will have 89 episodes, already good for syndication but I do hope Warner Brothers could make a deal with CBS to renew Christine even for a shortened final season to get it to 100 episodes. I don’t think ABC is interested anymore on picking up Old Christine since they already have 3 sitcoms renewed for next season. I guess the reason they wanted Old Christine before is that they wanted a veteran sitcom that could lead off a comedy block but with their relatively successful rookie comedy block this season, I don’t think ABC needs to get Old Christine especially that show’s ratings is not spectacular either.
Monday will be as follows MARK MY WORDS
8 HIMYM
830 Two 1/2 Men
9TBBT
930 New Show
Just wait….
I wish CBS would go ahead and announce Medium’s renewal just to put this stupid renew/cancel thing to rest. You’re beating it to death and you’re intentionally torturing the fans of these shows. I think you get some kind of kick out of watching the fans stew and stirring them up.
Uhh the majority of announcements are made in May. It’s not a matter of CBS torturing you, sweet pea. Look at the list of powerhouses that have not yet been officially renewed.
They’re not going to launch a new show at 9:30 Monday Frankie… it could hurt CSI Miami too much. Stefan probably has it about right, that is if they choose to keep the Wednesday night comedy block.
Frankie, if that new show sucks, people will not watch it regardless of the Big Bang lead-in. No point moving BBT.
@ Acey: I wasn’t talking about CBS, SWEETPEA. I was talking about this site. Thank you very much for the sarcasm, though.
You’re saying Medium is not in some danger of being canceled?
@ forg:
The ratings for Christine are the same if not slightly better than last season. I also read somewhere that it was beating ABC’s comedy line-up but then I realized that it was Hank at 8 PM and now Modern Family re-runs.
Still, one more season is 50% sure, I’d say.
89 episodes isn’t enough for syndication per se, but 5 seasons could be.
@aznfratboy:
It’s certainly how I’d do it if I worked on CBS.
Thanks for the vote of confidence
It is really stupid to cancel both Medium and Numb3rs. Both are performing well on a tough night and last week did very well with a rerun. If either are going to go, it will be Numb3rs as CBS has vested interest in preserving Medium for as long as it can due to the syndication rights.
It really depends on what happens after the Olympics and what NBC will program against them.
Stefan:
Old Christine has already been sold to both Lifetime and WGN America. So 89 episodes was enough, but I think Warner Brothers would like as many as possible.
The rights for Old Christine cost Lifetime $300,000 per episode, so I’m sure Warner Brothers would love to get as many more as possible, since the deal included any additional episodes over the 89.