Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next Fox Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.22 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.23 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.24 |
| Fringe | 0.59 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.70 |
| Glee (P) | 0.76 |
| Bones (P) | 0.78 |
| American Dad (P) | 0.81 |
| Human Target | 0.87 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 0.95 |
| 24 | 1.00 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 1.09 |
| Family Guy (P) | 1.10 |
| House | 1.23 |
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I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox's list to the other networks' lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox's case, and the "magic" 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.
Against repeat or special competition on broadcast networks, Fringe has had its best three ratings weeks this season since its premiere (2.6, 2.6, 3.0 adults 18-49 ratings). If only Fox moved it somewhere better, fans lament! But where? Sunday's out. Monday at 9 would mean either getting rid of Lie To Me or 24. Friday's a death zone. Putting it in the left over spot with American Idol on Tuesday or Wednesday likely means it could only be a spring show, but what then does Fox move into Thursday at 9? Tricky, very tricky.
All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).
Human Target fans should watch the ratings beginning tomorrow night (2/3) when the show starts its run in its "normal" timeslot. Those results will determine the future of the show. The past ratings as it jumped all over the schedule will mean little.
Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. 'Til Death continues to bounce around the Fox schedule, currently Sundays at 7pm. I'd be stunned if it was back again, but I was stunned last spring too.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Hey Bill,
I thought FOX officially canceled brothers on December 27th or 28th? It seems to me there was a blurb about that out around that time very quietly about that. Thanks, Lizard
I think Fringe will be back. It clearly has potential for big ratings, despite being up against 3 juggernauts in the ratings.
also, I think it is a good idea to take a break from the ren/can index for a while. There’s only small changed from week to week and it gets kind of repetitive. With a few weeks between there’s room for some real changes! Or else you’re just wimping out cuz’ of the Olympics.
John the Mon – I completely agree. Airing against repeats showed that Fringe has an audience…just one that doesn’t watch it live. However, it has enough audience to be renewed (but it would only be worth it if they moved days/TP). But like Bill said, to where?
Thursdays at 9 should go back to being owned by Gordon Ramsey. Both of his reality shows pulled decent numbers for that TP (considering its competition + cheaper than dramas).
Let’s face it: Fringe is safe. Fox is ok with Fringe’s ratings, J.J. already said that season two finale won’t be the series finale and last ratings were great. If Fringe just could air in a diferent time slot, I’m sure it would have great ratings. And Fox already learned that, I guess.
Sorry for my English, it’s not my native language, I still sucking at English.
Fringe: Our ratings don’t completely suck agaisnt repeats!
And I wouldn’t mind if it could only be a spring show, as long as it get renewed.
Lie to Me all the way!
It gets higher raitings and demos and is probably cheaper.
Fringe is good too though, just not as good.
Now I realized that Fringe will be back on April 1st. It means that CSI and Grey’s Anatomy will be at the end of their seasons, and Fringe will air against repeats(now I’m so happy)
Holly- Hilarious! hahaha
I would actually like to See both Lie To Me and Fringe returns both great shows and not too bad ratings, guess a lot depends on if SYTYCD comes back in the fall, how Human Target stands up alone, and if 24 comes back guess that depends on Kiefer. But all in all i think both Fringe and Lie to Me can becomes Fox’s next hits just need more time. House and Bones are starting to age need something to take over and both shows have the potential.
Empire, I agree. I want both to return, but if I have to choose, Fringe will always win. And I’m almost sure that both will return, because I actually saw Humam Target, and it’s awful. 24 it’s always the same old history every season. So…
I really enjoy Fringe but there are far too many stand alone episodes.
@ Empire:
I too would like to see Fringe and Lie to Me both get renewed. I enjoy both shows quite a bit, but Fringe is my favorite of the two, and it wouldn’t bother me to see Lie to Me thrown under the bus to save Fringe.
I don’t necessarily think Bones/House are showing their ages. For me, Bones didn’t hit its stride until season 3- when Sweets showed up, I love Sweets – and I think it’s still going strong. And I feel the same way about House. House has been better in season 5 (and the last few episodes of season 4) than it has been in years.
24 is the one that I think it starting to show its age. It just gets so repetitive. Jack runs around chasing and yelling at terrorists. Rinse, repeat. And I think the show could not only survive without Kiefer, but it could potentially flourish. Shifting the focus to a different agent could breathe new life into the series, and I think the perfect agent for the job would be Renee Walker.
And if Fox cancel Fringe, I bet there wil be a protest with 10 million Fringe fans in front of Fox studios.
Have u seen the numbers for Fringe? If they cant get 10 million people to watch the show how could they get even 10,000 to show up outside of a studio?
Lizardman, the likelihood I could have missed an official announcement on Brothers at that time is very high. If you can find it and put the link in the comments, I will definitely update things.
Ok, I’m crazy, do anyone else doubt that?
@ Yuri:
Grey’s Anatomy has only aired 12 out of the ordered 24 episodes so far, which means there’s 12 more to go (~3 months). Since the season ends in 3 and a half months, there will likely be only 2-3 breaks (repeat weeks).
I don’t know why there’s such a heated debate about one of the two shows being canceled: I think both Fringe and Lie to Me are pretty much a lock for the next season.
And please Fox, cancel Brothers and Til Death already! Have mercy!
In terms of Fringe vs Lie to Me (maybe this has been brought up, don’t read regularly here), wouldn’t Fox want to continue relationships with J.J. Abrams and co. over a first time writer/creator in Lie to Me? It’s speculative, but I would think a studio would choose an established writer and creator than a first timer. Keeping good relations with J.J Abrams and his production company makes better sense, financially, in terms of choosing two similar shows.
Just an opinion