If Only Fringe Could Always Air Against Repeats

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Featured

Written By

February 2nd, 2010

Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next Fox Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Til Death (S), (F) 0.22
Dollhouse (F), (P) 0.23
Brothers (F) 0.24
Fringe 0.59
Lie To Me (P) 0.70
Glee (P) 0.76
Bones (P) 0.78
American Dad (P) 0.81
Human Target 0.87
The Cleveland Show (P) 0.95
24 1.00
The Simpsons (P) 1.09
Family Guy (P) 1.10
House 1.23

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I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox's list to the other networks' lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox's case, and the "magic" 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.

Against repeat or special competition on broadcast networks, Fringe has had its best three ratings weeks this season since its premiere (2.6, 2.6, 3.0 adults 18-49 ratings). If only Fox moved it somewhere better, fans lament! But where? Sunday's out. Monday at 9 would mean either getting rid of Lie To Me or 24. Friday's a death zone. Putting it in the left over spot with American Idol on Tuesday or Wednesday likely means it could only be a spring show, but what then does Fox move into Thursday at 9? Tricky, very tricky.

All the schedule experiments with the two shows continue to show little practical ratings difference between Fringe and Lie To Me. Your guess is as good as mine what Fox does. At this point I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised by any combination of their renewal or cancellation (either one, both, neither).

Human Target fans should watch the ratings beginning tomorrow night (2/3) when the show starts its run in its "normal" timeslot. Those results will determine the future of the show. The past ratings as it jumped all over the schedule will mean little.

Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. 'Til Death continues to bounce around the Fox schedule, currently Sundays at 7pm. I'd be stunned if it was back again, but I was stunned last spring too.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving :mrgreen: or deteriorating :oops: Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.

I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Notes:

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.

What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

 
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