Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next CW Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.63 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.86 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.95 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 1.04 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 1.04 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 1.16 |
| Life Unexpected (P) | 1.28 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.52 |
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Life Unexpected's adults 18-49 ratings for its first three episodes (1.1, 1.1, 1.0) put it solidly in the middle range of CW shows and if it can hold there it looks good for renewal. Note that Life Unexpected's ratings average includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show averages contain many repeat airings.
And, if to do no more than let folks know who haven't been paying attention, Melrose Place will certainly be canceled at the end of the season.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Lux seems to do well for CW standards I suppose. Not sure if it deserves or will get a renewal way too early to tell, but it is a unique show, gives off that old WB feel to it. Only ABC Family currently runs stuff like this. Only series I see gone is MP, just doesn’t have a large enough fan base that WATCHING. Everything else seem like it will come back, odds are CW will not cancel every, but VD that would be nuts. Isn’t this supposed to be SuperNaturals final season ?
I have a question. Why are you saying Life’s numbers put it in the middle of the pack, when on your index charts it is #2? I’ve been following your index for a long time now, but that has me stumped. Is it just because it’s only had a few eps, as opposed to the more established shows?
@nkinsey,
The index includes all in-slot repeats, and the other shows have run a lot of repeats. The fact that LE numbers don’t include any repeats skews things.
nkinsey Life Unexpected doesnt include repeats in averages but other shows do.
LUX has had a repeat of itself every week. How does that not keep it’s numbers in line with the rest of the CW? Is it because the repeat aired on a different night?
@CrimsonV,
Is it because the repeat aired on a different night?
Yes. Only repeats in the regular timeslot are included in the averages.
Crimson, only when the show airs a repeat in its timeslot its counted. Lux repeats on Wednesday dont count.
Thanks, guys. That’s what I figured, but wanted to make sure.
“Crimson, only when the show airs a repeat in its timeslot its counted. Lux repeats on Wednesday dont count.”
Well, that sucks because it posts some solid numbers on Wednesday nights.
I really hope LUX is renewed, last night’s episode was great. It is fun little show, a nice break from the procedurals and scifi shows that make up most of my TV schedule
LUX is a really good show… im really impressed with it…
I hope LUX survives
LUX is airing in a particularly hard time slot (vs TBBT and Bachelor), so good numbers, considering. I also keep picking up rumors that LUX is the cheapest show to produce that the CW has. And it’s getting great reviews. And it’s CW’s only new show, so it’s being promoted like crazy.
(Have I covered enough bingo cards yet?)
Bottom line: remain hopeful. And if you know any Nielson families, invite yourself to their house at 9 on Mondays. With a master remote.
LUX should not have premiered after OTH. It is actually a series which can stand out on it’s own, like TVD. I was actually expecting great numbers for LUX’s premiere..too late for now. Given that the repeats on Wednesdays have been quite good in terms of numbers, maybe CW should just air new episodes on Wednesdays
Wednesdays do have the ‘feel good factor’ with ABC comedies and LUX might just thrive on that day.
(Have I covered enough bingo cards yet?)
And it’s CW’s only new show, so it’s being promoted like crazy
If you want to help with Bingo, you need to whine that it’s getting any promotion…
@Holly
I’m trying to be hopeful. Just substitute “fan delusion” for “fan excuse” and check off the promo box. I thought the change from Dollhouse whining might be nice.
10 episodes to go for LUX, so far the 1st three did okay. I’m interested on how it will perform on the 8pm slot when Gossip Girl returns
I really like LUX but I am worried by its declining ratings, especially in adults 18-34 and w 18-34 (It’s adults 18-49 aren’t great, but if it managed nice increases in those other two then I am sure the CW wouldn’t give rats ass about the 18-49.
I mean Smallville a show with no leadout, and on Friday (and equaled the adult 18-34 that LUX hit this week. I am not dogging on Smallville as its Friday slot is very difficult to get any real traction in young viewers,
I really hope this show either picks up (just a little would be nice) or remains flat.
I like it, and I am very surprised that I do.
The first three weeks were pretty solid, by CW terms. I do think that it is in a difficult time spot too. It’s facing the bachelor and TBBT, but also ABC family’s Make it or Break It. I know that ABC family isn’t a main network, but I feel like it is stealing away from their viewers share too. I think the real test of if it will be picked up or not will be when it switches into OTH’s time slot. Gossip Girl hasn’t had great numbers either this season. Does anyone know their season high/low? Anyway if can still draw in decent numbers without OTH as a draw in, I can see it being renewed. It has the cheapest production costs, good reviews/pr on its side.
@CrismonV,
I’m just joking. I think you do have reason to be hopeful about Life Unexpected. It’s critical reception is good and it’s not doing any worse in the ratings than most of their other shows. If it stays where it is, it has a real chance.