Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next ABC Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through January 31, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Better Off Ted | 0.42 |
| Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) | 0.46 |
| Scrubs (P) | 0.56 |
| Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) | 0.59 |
| Hank | 0.54* |
| the forgotten | 0.61 |
| Eastwick | 0.62 |
| The Deep End | 0.67 |
| The Middle | 0.74 |
| Castle (P) | 0.83 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.02 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.02 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.16 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.16 |
| Modern Family | 1.19 |
| V | 1.41 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.67 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.71 |
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Castle's new episode 18-49 ratings in 2010 (2.6, 2.8, 3.0) have been so improved vs. the rest of the ABC lineup, that I'm now convinced it's likely to be renewed for next season. I think that ABC's going to want to take more than 5 drama hours into 2010-11, and chances for FlashForward and V are far less certain than they are for Castle.
In fact, with the announcement that Ugly Betty is canceled, even though ABC chief Steve McPherson loved it, and with The Deep End ratings underwater, ABC's fall 2011 picture has become much clearer in the last week. The only real questions remaining are around FlashForward and V. Sadly for us, we won't see new ratings for either of them until March.
Compare ABC's situation with CBS, which has quite a few shows "on the bubble", and the wrecked chaos at NBC where almost anything might happen.
The Deep End will certainly be canceled.
If FlashForward ratings don't bounce back from its fall lows, it's certain to be canceled.
V's future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because it's fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I've colored the show orange in the table to indicate that I think anything might happen to it.
Who is Steve McPherson kidding about Scrubs and Better Off Ted? There is a very tiny possibility that Scrubs comes back just to generate more episodes for syndication. There is no such possibility for Ted.
Hank and Eastwick are already canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on recent averages instead of season to date.
I've added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who's renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Green is my new favorite color.
It’s great to be GREEN!
Why are the Renew/Cancel posts taking a break?? :/ I really look forward to this stuff every week. It’s like a whole another TV show to look forward to!
Shouldn’t Modern Family be in bold type like Cougartown and The Middle?
Green is nice, but shouldn’t Modern Family be more coal-hued? I thought an announcement was made.
With Ugly Betty cancelled & Castle’s reruns doing decent, I think the momentum has gone in a positive direction for the sophomore drama. And I think it deserves another season to grab ahold. It also doesn’t hurt another mystery novel “written” by Mr. Castle will be coming out later this year; so that cross-platform entertainment model will prove to boost the show – like it did last year
ABC is scheduling a special Sunday episode of Castle in March… So, could Brothers & Sisters be moving out of its usual timeslot? Tuesdays at 10 perhaps? Following DWTS results? They are compatible…
Robert/Bill Modern Family is also renewed.
CASTLE!! Dmcw said it perfectly: it’s GREAT to be green! Congratulations to the Castle cast and crew. This fantastic show has certainly earned it!
So the only new shows to stick around are Cougar Town and Modern Family. What a pity…
Yeah for Castle getting put in green!
Ali, don’t forget The Middle too.
@Chmarin: “So, could Brothers & Sisters be moving out of its usual timeslot?”
If I were running ABC, I certainly would. DH is only getting older and needs a successor, B&S isn’t good enough to be that successor, and if B&S fails outside of DH afterglow, it will have enough episodes after next season to be good enough for syndication. Plus Tues / Wed @10pm are up in the air for next season (UB is gone, and V certainly isn’t a lock).
Who knows if ABC sees it the same way though – although they did kick DWTSResults into the AI meatgrinder, so maybe they are looking at these things with clearer eyes recently.
Im surprised u have Castle green but very happy. And yea Modern Family should be black since its already renewed.
@Ali: “So the only new shows to stick around are Cougar Town and Modern Family. What a pity…”
The only shows out of 2008 that survived are the dead Ted and Castle; the only show out of 2007 that survives is the all-afterglow Private Practice. ABC has had far worse development seasons than 2009.
I Love Livin’ Green, GO CASTLE!!!
Great news. Now we’ll for sure get another Nikki Heat book too!
Green… somewhere Kermit the Frog is smiling
I watched the first few episodes of Castle, and they were terrible. But I wouldn’t want to deprive the fans of their moment, we all have different opinions.
Wow, I never thought we would see Castle in the green here this season! I’m estactic!!!
Green also is my favorite color, so nice to see Castle has reached the color of prominence