Stop The Presses, Castle's Good Enough For Next Year

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Featured

Written By

February 2nd, 2010

Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next ABC Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through January 31, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Better Off Ted 0.42
Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) 0.46
Scrubs (P) 0.56
Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) 0.59
Hank 0.54*
the forgotten 0.61
Eastwick 0.62
The Deep End 0.67
The Middle 0.74
Castle (P) 0.83
FlashForward (P) 1.02
Cougar Town (P) 1.02
Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) 1.16
Private Practice (P) 1.16
Modern Family 1.19
V 1.41
Grey's Anatomy (P) 1.67
Desperate Housewives (P) 1.71

-
Castle's new episode 18-49 ratings in 2010 (2.6, 2.8, 3.0) have been so improved vs. the rest of the ABC lineup, that I'm now convinced it's likely to be renewed for next season. I think that ABC's going to want to take more than 5 drama hours into 2010-11, and chances for FlashForward and V are far less certain than they are for Castle.

In fact, with the announcement that Ugly Betty is canceled, even though ABC chief Steve McPherson loved it, and with The Deep End ratings underwater, ABC's fall 2011 picture has become much clearer in the last week. The only real questions remaining are around FlashForward and V. Sadly for us, we won't see new ratings for either of them until March.

Compare ABC's situation with CBS, which has quite a few shows "on the bubble", and the wrecked chaos at NBC where almost anything might happen.

The Deep End will certainly be canceled.

If FlashForward ratings don't bounce back from its fall lows, it's certain to be canceled.

V's future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because it's fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I've colored the show orange in the table to indicate that I think anything might happen to it.

Who is Steve McPherson kidding about Scrubs and Better Off Ted? There is a very tiny possibility that Scrubs comes back just to generate more episodes for syndication. There is no such possibility for Ted.

Hank and Eastwick are already canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for  shows either with either improving :mrgreen: or deteriorating :oops: Indexes, based on recent averages instead of season to date.

I've added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who's renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

-

Notes:

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.

What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

 
© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures