Unlike many other championship sporting events which have declined over time, Super Bowl TV ratings have not only held up well, but after a generation of fairly flat results, have begun growing again in the last several years and last year's Super Bowl XLIII had the most average viewers (98.7 million) ever.
Factors that may increase this year's viewership:
- Overall increased NFL ratings this season
- The story of New Orleans & The Saints
- Peyton Manning's relatively high name recognition among the general public
- Weather (could keep Nielsen families at home where they are counted vs. in a bar where they aren't)
- CBS. 3 of their 4 recent Super Bowls showed a viewership increase vs. the previous year
Factors that may decrease this year's viewership:
- Game competitiveness. The last two Super Bowls were close all the way through. A game that gets lopsided early would likely feel a drag in the late ratings and overall.
Given a competitive game, I'd expect another viewership record, and I like round numbers, so I'll guess 100 million average viewers.
What's your guess?
Feel free to comment below, or click here to take the poll.
(I tried to include the poll inside this post but it somehow bugged the post)
Complete Super Bowl TV Ratings, 1967-2009:
| Date | Net | Rating | Share | $/30 Sec. Ad | Homes (000) | Viewers (000) | NFC Champion | AFC Champion | |
| XLIII | Feb 1 2009* | NBC | 42.0 | 64 | $3,000,000 | 48,139 | 98,732 | Arizona | Pittsburgh |
| XLII | Feb 3 2008* | FOX | 43.1 | 65 | $2,699,963 | 48,665 | 97,448 | New York Giants | New England |
| XLI | Feb 4 2007 * | CBS | 42.6 | 64 | $2,385,365 | 47,505 | 93,184 | Chicago | Indianapolis |
| XL | Feb 5 2006 * | ABC | 41.6 | 62 | $2,500,000 | 45,867 | 90,745 | Seattle | Pittsburgh |
| XXXIX | Feb 6 2005 | FOX | 41.1 | 62 | $2,400,000 | 45,081 | 86,072 | Philadelphia | New England |
| XXXVIII | Feb 1 2004 | CBS | 41.4 | 63 | $2,302,200 | 44,908 | 89,795 | Carolina | New England |
| XXXVII | Jan 26 2003 | ABC | 40.7 | 61 | $2,200,000 | 43,433 | 88,637 | Tampa Bay | Oakland |
| XXXVI | Feb 3 2002 | FOX | 40.4 | 61 | $2,200,000 | 42,664 | 86,801 | St. Louis | New England |
| XXXV | Jan 28 2001 | CBS | 40.4 | 61 | $2,200,000 | 41,270 | 84,335 | NY Giants | Baltimore |
| XXXIV | Jan 30 2000 | ABC | 43.3 | 63 | $2,100,000 | 43,618 | 88,465 | St. Louis | Tennessee |
| XXXIII | Jan 31 1999 | FOX | 40.2 | 61 | $1,600,000 | 39,992 | 83,720 | Atlanta | Denver |
| XXXII | Jan 25 1998 | NBC | 44.5 | 67 | $1,291,100 | 43,630 | 90,000 | Green Bay | Denver |
| XXXI | Jan 26 1997 | FOX | 43.3 | 65 | $1,200,000 | 42,000 | 87,870 | Green Bay | New England |
| XXX | Jan 28 1996 | NBC | 46 | 68 | $1,085,000 | 44,145 | 94,080 | Dallas | Pittsburgh |
| XXIX | Jan 29 1995 | ABC | 41.3 | 62 | $1,150,000 | 39,400 | 83,420 | San Francisco | San Diego |
| XXVIII | Jan 30 1994 | NBC | 45.5 | 66 | $900,000 | 42,860 | 90,000 | Dallas | Buffalo |
| XXVII | Jan 31 1993 | NBC | 45.1 | 66 | $850,000 | 41,990 | 90,990 | Dallas | Buffalo |
| XXVI | Jan 26 1992 | CBS | 40.3 | 61 | $850,000 | 37,120 | 79,590 | Washington | Buffalo |
| XXV | Jan 27 1991 | ABC | 41.9 | 63 | $800,000 | 39,010 | 79,510 | NY Giants | Buffalo |
| XXIV | Jan 28 1990 | CBS | 39 | 63 | $700,400 | 35,920 | 73,852 | San Francisco | Denver |
| XXIII | Jan 22 1989 | NBC | 43.5 | 68 | $675,000 | 39,320 | 81,590 | San Francisco | Cincinnati |
| XXII | Jan 31 1988 | ABC | 41.9 | 62 | $645,000 | 37,120 | 80,140 | Washington | Denver |
| XXI | Jan 25 1987 | CBS | 45.8 | 66 | $600,000 | 40,030 | 87,190 | NY Giants | Denver |
| XX | Jan 26 1986 | NBC | 48.3 | 70 | $550,000 | 41,490 | 92,570 | Chicago | New England |
| XIX | Jan 20 1985 | ABC | 46.4 | 63 | $525,000 | 39,390 | 85,530 | San Francisco | Miami |
| XVIII | Jan 22 1984 | CBS | 46.4 | 71 | $368,200 | 38,880 | 77,620 | Washington | LA Raiders |
| XVII | Jan 30 1983 | NBC | 48.6 | 69 | $400,000 | 40,480 | 81,770 | Washington | Miami |
| XVI | Jan 24 1982 | CBS | 49.1 | 73 | $324,300 | 40,020 | 85,240 | San Francisco | Cincinnati |
| XV | Jan 25 1981 | NBC | 44.4 | 63 | $275,000 | 34,540 | 68,290 | Philadelphia | Oakland |
| XIV | Jan 20 1980 | CBS | 46.3 | 67 | $222,000 | 35,330 | 76,240 | LA Rams | Pittsburgh |
| XIII | Jan 21 1979 | NBC | 47.1 | 74 | $185,000 | 35,090 | 74,740 | Dallas | Pittsburgh |
| XII | Jan 15 1978 | CBS | 47.2 | 67 | $162,300 | 34,410 | 78,940 | Dallas | Denver |
| XI | Jan 09 1977 | NBC | 44.4 | 73 | $125,000 | 31,610 | 62,050 | Minnesota | Oakland |
| X | Jan 18 1976 | CBS | 42.3 | 78 | $110,000 | 29,440 | 57,710 | Dallas | Pittsburgh |
| IX | Jan 12 1975 | NBC | 42.4 | 72 | $107,000 | 29,040 | 56,050 | Minnesota | Pittsburgh |
| VIII | Jan 13 1974 | CBS | 41.6 | 73 | $103,500 | 27,540 | 51,700 | Minnesota | Miami |
| VII | Jan 14 1973 | NBC | 42.7 | 72 | $88,100 | 27,670 | 53,320 | Washington | Miami |
| VI | Jan 16 1972 | CBS | 44.2 | 74 | $86,100 | 27,450 | 56,640 | Dallas | Miami |
| V | Jan 17 1971 | NBC | 39.9 | 75 | $72,500 | 23,980 | 46,040 | Dallas | Baltimore |
| IV | Jan 11 1970 | CBS | 39.4 | 69 | $78,200 | 23,050 | 44,270 | Minnesota | Kansas City |
| III | Jan 12 1969 | NBC | 36 | 70 | $55,000 | 20,520 | 41,660 | Baltimore | NY Jets |
| II | Jan 14 1968 | CBS | 36.8 | 68 | $54,500 | 20,610 | 39,120 | Green Bay | Oakland |
| I | Jan 15 1967 | CBS | 22.6 | 43 | $42,500 | 12,410 | 26,750 | Green Bay | Kansas City |
| I | Jan 15 1967 | NBC | 18.5 | 36 | $37,500 | 10,160 | 24,430 | Green Bay | Kansas City |
2006-9 Data is Live+Same Day, all other years are Live viewing.
Ad expenditure data from Nielsen Monitor-Plus.
Note: Super Bowl 1 aired on both CBS & NBC.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
42.0 / 94 mil
if Brett Favre was playing, I would of guess over 100 mil
96.5 mil
I am not familiar with this Super Bowl, so I won’t guess. The only reason I know what it is, is due to How I Met Your Mother.
99.8 million.
102 million.
107 million viewers
93 million
100+ viewers. Both these teams were 13-0 and very well could’ve gone 16-0 if they had any incentive to do so. Explosive offenses and half the country is stuck inside due to the weather.
99.99 million viewers
100,778,000.
93.7 million
43 rating, 100.5 mil viewers
I am assuming the game stays competitive all the way through, and flirts with highest scoring Super Bowl ever.
I’m from MN and we’re bitter so don’t count on a high rating here. I’d guess overall 102.5 million viewers.
Total viewers (the 6+ minute #) 153,137,000.
RE: who cares?
Well, if you don’t, then so be it. To each their own. However, probably around 100 million people, at the least, will be watching the game, based on historical data. Many more who, for some reason, might not be able to (or will be somewhere they can’t be recorded as a viewer, like a bar) but will have some interest in the outcome.
I’m not going to be watching — I quit watching the NFL a long time ago — but I still maintain a curiosity about the Super Bowl. Given the reasons in this post for positives and negatives on the ratings (and agreeing with all of them), and anticipating a competitive game, I am going to guess 105 million with a 44.3 ratings. Just for fun.
109.0 million
I would say 99-101m depending on how the match goes.
101 million
if theres one thing we know about NFL QB’s and ratings its that Favre and Manning can draw
any SB with either of them is gonna be pretty highly rated so i think if the Vikings would’ve made it it would be a sure 100+ million
but its still Manning. and the Saints are pretty popular. i haven’t watched ANY sports since the championship games but i’m sure ESPN is playing the Katrina card to get sympathy. i’ma still guess its gonna get over 100 million.
104 million